{"id":6596,"date":"2014-02-20T16:48:06","date_gmt":"2014-02-20T15:48:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=6596"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:11:41","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:11:41","slug":"the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/20\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-new-strategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\/","title":{"rendered":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No140 - Une nouvelle configuration strat\u00e9gique en Extr\u00eame-Orient et dans le monde ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00c9ditorial - <strong>Vers une nouvelle configuration strat\u00e9gique en Extr\u00eame-Orient et dans le monde ? Le Japon, la Chine, les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Russie -<\/strong> Alors que tant de personnes se concentrent sur la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9rie de manifestations mondiales, \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent en Ukraine, au Venezuela et en Tha\u00eflande (bien que la situation y soit beaucoup moins soulign\u00e9e dans les informations provenant des foules), ou sur les tensions apparemment toujours croissantes au Moyen-Orient, en Extr\u00eame-Orient, la tension a augment\u00e9 d'au moins un cran, le gouvernement japonais ayant laiss\u00e9 entendre qu'il voulait revoir l'\u00e9tude de 1993 qui a conduit aux excuses pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par le Japon en 1994 pour les \"femmes de r\u00e9confort\" sud-cor\u00e9ennes pendant la Seconde Guerre mondiale (voir <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/asia_pacific\/japan-may-review-probe-on-wwii-sex-slavery\/2014\/02\/20\/bc8b4c7e-99ff-11e3-b1de-e666d78c3937_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Article du Washington Post<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">En outre, et surtout, le Japon semble ne plus h\u00e9siter \u00e0 risquer un \"coup de froid\" avec son alli\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain, \u00e0 utiliser <!--more-->le<span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">\u00a0la formulation de l'article de Martin Fackler dans le\u00a0<\/span><a style=\"line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2014\/02\/20\/world\/asia\/nationalistic-remarks-from-japan-lead-to-warnings-of-chill-with-us.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New York Times<\/a>\u00a0(19 f\u00e9vrier 2014)<span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">comme un l\u00e9gislateur de haut rang a soulign\u00e9 sa d\u00e9ception \u00e0 l'\u00e9gard des \u00c9tats-Unis (pour ne pas avoir soutenu assez fermement le Japon dans ses diff\u00e9rends avec ses voisins), ou comme <\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">\"Naoki Hyakuta, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 nomm\u00e9 par le Premier ministre lui-m\u00eame au conseil d'administration de la cha\u00eene publique NHK, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 dans un discours que le tribunal de guerre de Tokyo apr\u00e8s la Seconde Guerre mondiale \u00e9tait un moyen de couvrir le \"g\u00e9nocide\" des raids a\u00e9riens am\u00e9ricains sur Tokyo et les bombardements atomiques d'Hiroshima et de Nagasaki\" (I<\/span>d'offre.<span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">). Naoki Hyakuta conna\u00eet bien ce type de commentaires (par exemple <a href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/asia\/how-japans-bbc-is-rewriting-its-role-in-second-world-war-9115827.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">David MacNeill<\/a>The Independent, 7 f\u00e9vrier 2014).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ces d\u00e9clarations montrent tout d'abord et de toute \u00e9vidence le niveau toujours \u00e9lev\u00e9 et croissant de tension existant dans la r\u00e9gion, alors que la Chine et le Japon affirment leurs revendications territoriales, ainsi que la volont\u00e9 nationaliste du Japon, qui a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de voir sa constitution anti-guerre modifi\u00e9e (par exemple\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/japandailypress.com\/pm-abe-publicly-declares-need-to-revise-japans-pacifist-constitution-0241747\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Hofilena<\/a>JDP, 2 janvier 2014). Le contexte \u00e9conomique, avec des r\u00e9sultats moins que satisfaisants, rend la situation particuli\u00e8rement inqui\u00e9tante car la guerre peut \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme un moyen de sortir des probl\u00e8mes \u00e9conomiques. Ce qui est ici nouveau et, \u00e0 premi\u00e8re vue, surprenant, c'est que dans une situation aussi tendue, le Japon pourrait souhaiter risquer de s'ali\u00e9ner les \u00c9tats-Unis. En tant qu'hypoth\u00e8se, le nouveau refroidissement pourrait devenir moins surprenant si l'on se rappelle que le 8 f\u00e9vrier, le Premier ministre japonais Shinzo Abe a rencontr\u00e9 le Pr\u00e9sident russe Vladimir Poutine \u00e0 Sotchi, et si l'on se rappelle que \"cinq sommets ont eu lieu entre les deux dirigeants en treize mois\" (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/02\/08\/us-russia-japan-idUSBREA170I620140208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters, 8 f\u00e9vrier 2014<\/a>). Les deux pays travaillent, il est vrai, \u00e0 la signature du trait\u00e9 de paix qui mettrait fin \u00e0 leur diff\u00e9rend territorial mais partagent \u00e9galement des int\u00e9r\u00eats commerciaux forts, notamment le p\u00e9trole et le gaz, qui sont d'autant plus importants pour le Japon compte tenu de Fukushima (par exemple ibid). On peut donc se demander si le nouveau \"chill\" avec les Etats-Unis, initi\u00e9 par le Japon, n'est pas permis par les relations chaleureuses avec la Russie, ainsi qu'un signal de la force de cette relation. Il peut \u00e9galement s'agir d'un avertissement du Japon aux \u00c9tats-Unis, compte tenu de l'importance du Japon dans leur strat\u00e9gie de \"pivot vers l'Asie\", selon lequel, si les \u00c9tats-Unis ne les soutiennent pas plus fortement, ils pourraient tr\u00e8s bien se tourner de plus en plus vers la Russie. Dans tous les cas, il s'agit l\u00e0 d'une \u00e9volution extr\u00eamement int\u00e9ressante, qui a le potentiel de red\u00e9finir radicalement la configuration strat\u00e9gique non seulement en Extr\u00eame-Orient, mais aussi au niveau mondial (\u00e9conomiquement et g\u00e9opolitiquement).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cliquez sur l'image pour acc\u00e9der \u00e0 l'hebdomadaire<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/paper.li\/HLavoix\/1323337992?edition_id=5552e710-9a04-11e3-a979-00259071bfed\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-6598\" title=\"Le Red Team Analysis Weekly 140\" alt=\"balayage d&#039;horizon, Chine, Japon, Russie, avertissement, signal, surveillance\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-140-sc.jpeg\" width=\"550\" height=\"727\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-140-sc.jpeg 550w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-140-sc-250x330.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-140-sc-300x397.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-140-sc-226x300.jpeg 226w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Image en vedette :  Photo - le Bureau pr\u00e9sidentiel de presse et d'information de <a href=\"http:\/\/eng.kremlin.ru\/news\/6627,\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">la pr\u00e9sidence russe<\/a>Avant la r\u00e9union avec le Premier ministre japonais Shinzo Abe, Sotchi, 8 f\u00e9vrier 2014<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editorial - Vers une nouvelle configuration strat\u00e9gique en Extr\u00eame-Orient et dans le monde ? Le Japon, la Chine, les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Russie - Alors que beaucoup se concentrent sur la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9rie de manifestations mondiales, maintenant en Ukraine, au Venezuela et en Tha\u00eflande (bien que la situation dans ce pays soit beaucoup moins soulign\u00e9e dans les informations en provenance des foules), ou sur les ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/20\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-new-strategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" L'analyse hebdomadaire de l'(\u00e9quipe) rouge n\u00b0140 - Une nouvelle configuration strat\u00e9gique en Extr\u00eame-Orient et dans le monde ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1148,3249],"tags":[61,289,1789,89,792,2060,220,1433,1755,2058,1831,446,1569,2175,2067,1559,1568,1295],"class_list":["post-6596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-east-asia-security","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-china","tag-egypt","tag-featured","tag-greece","tag-japan","tag-libyan-war","tag-russia","tag-sinai","tag-somalia","tag-syria-issues","tag-thailand","tag-turkey","tag-u-k","tag-u-s","tag-ukraine-issues","tag-venezuela","tag-water-security","tag-yemen","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No140 - A new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/20\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No140 - A new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Editorial &#8211; Towards a new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally? Japan, China, the U.S. and Russia &#8211; As so many are focusing on the last round of global protests, now in Ukraine, in Venezuela, and in Thailand (although the situation there is much less emphasized in crowdsourced news), or on the seemingly &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No140 &#8211; A new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally?\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/20\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-02-20T15:48:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:11:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Putin-Shinzo-Abe.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"672\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"372\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No140 &#8211; A new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally?\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-02-20T15:48:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-14T08:11:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":582,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/Putin-Shinzo-Abe.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"China\",\"Egypt\",\"featured\",\"Greece\",\"Japan\",\"Libyan war\",\"Russia\",\"Sinai\",\"Somalia\",\"Syria issues\",\"Thailand\",\"Turkey\",\"U.K.\",\"U.S\",\"Ukraine issues\",\"Venezuela\",\"water security\",\"Yemen\"],\"articleSection\":[\"East Asia and Pacific\",\"The Weekly Scan - Editorial Archives\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no140-a-newstrategic-configuration-in-the-far-east-and-globally\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No140 - A new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally? 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. 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