{"id":6731,"date":"2014-03-10T11:49:17","date_gmt":"2014-03-10T10:49:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=6731"},"modified":"2022-05-30T18:41:58","modified_gmt":"2022-05-30T16:41:58","slug":"%c3%a9valuation-sc%c3%a9narios-et-indicateurs-pour-la-guerre-syrienne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/10\/evaluating-scenarios-and-indicators-for-the-syrian-war\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9valuation des sc\u00e9narios et des indicateurs de la guerre en Syrie"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Chaque ann\u00e9e, The Economist, dans sa s\u00e9rie \"The World in...\", \u00e9value ses succ\u00e8s et ses \u00e9checs concernant ses pr\u00e9visions annuelles pass\u00e9es (par exemple, pour 2012). Il s'agit d'un comportement exemplaire qui devrait \u00eatre adopt\u00e9 par tous les praticiens : si nous voulons fournir des pr\u00e9visions et des avertissements strat\u00e9giques de qualit\u00e9 et exploitables, et am\u00e9liorer notre processus, notre m\u00e9thodologie et donc nos produits finaux, nous devons toujours \u00e9valuer notre travail. Apr\u00e8s avoir termin\u00e9 notre derni\u00e8re s\u00e9rie de mises \u00e0 jour sur l'\u00e9tat des lieux de la guerre en Syrie, nous pouvons maintenant commencer \u00e0 \u00e9valuer comment nos propres sc\u00e9narios et indicateurs se sont comport\u00e9s jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, s'ils doivent \u00eatre mis \u00e0 jour et les am\u00e9liorations m\u00e9thodologiques potentielles que nous devrions tenter. \u00c9valuation des sc\u00e9narios Alors que la conf\u00e9rence de Gen\u00e8ve s'est d\u00e9roul\u00e9e (voir ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/10\/evaluating-scenarios-and-indicators-for-the-syrian-war\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" \u00c9valuation des sc\u00e9narios et des indicateurs de la guerre en Syrie \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=6731\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chaque ann\u00e9e, The Economist, dans sa s\u00e9rie \"The World in...\", \u00e9value ses succ\u00e8s et ses \u00e9checs concernant ses pr\u00e9visions annuelles pass\u00e9es (par exemple, pour 2012). Il s'agit d'un comportement exemplaire qui devrait \u00eatre adopt\u00e9 par tous les praticiens : si nous voulons fournir des pr\u00e9visions et des avertissements strat\u00e9giques de qualit\u00e9 et exploitables, et am\u00e9liorer notre processus, notre m\u00e9thodologie et donc nos produits finaux, nous devons toujours \u00e9valuer notre travail. Apr\u00e8s avoir termin\u00e9 notre derni\u00e8re s\u00e9rie de mises \u00e0 jour sur l'\u00e9tat des lieux de la guerre en Syrie, nous pouvons maintenant commencer \u00e0 \u00e9valuer comment nos propres sc\u00e9narios et indicateurs se sont comport\u00e9s jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, s'ils doivent \u00eatre mis \u00e0 jour et les am\u00e9liorations m\u00e9thodologiques potentielles que nous devrions tenter. \u00c9valuation des sc\u00e9narios Alors que la conf\u00e9rence de Gen\u00e8ve s'est d\u00e9roul\u00e9e (voir ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/10\/evaluating-scenarios-and-indicators-for-the-syrian-war\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" \u00c9valuation des sc\u00e9narios et des indicateurs de la guerre en Syrie \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=6731\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1510,33,3237,2499,252],"tags":[1507,1789,1720,1077,1100,91,1251,1687,1818,220,1042,190,2058,2175,522],"class_list":["post-6731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-evaluation-analyse","category-scan-and-monitor","category-scenario-building","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-syria","tag-evaluation","tag-featured","tag-geneva-2","tag-indications","tag-indicators","tag-iran","tag-kurds","tag-peace","tag-rojava","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-scenarios","tag-syria-issues","tag-u-s","tag-war","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/10\/\u00e9valuation-sc\u00e9narios-et-indicateurs-pour-la-guerre-syrienne\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Every year, The Economist, in its \u201cThe World in\u2026\u201d series, assesses it successes and failures regarding its past yearly forecasts (e.g.\u00a0for 2012). This is an exemplary behaviour that should be adopted by all practitioners: if we are to deliver good and actionable strategic foresight and warning, and to improve our process, methodology and thus our &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. 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Elle est titulaire d'un doctorat en \u00e9tudes politiques et d'une ma\u00eetrise en politique internationale de l'Asie (avec distinction) de la School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), Universit\u00e9 de Londres, ainsi que d'une ma\u00eetrise en finance (major de promotion, Grande \u00c9cole, France).\r\n\r\nExperte en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte pr\u00e9coce, notamment pour les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale, elle combine 30 ans d'exp\u00e9rience en relations internationales et pr\u00e8s de 20 ans en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte. Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/donours-large-2014.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6731"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6731\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34806,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6731\/revisions\/34806"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}