{"id":6842,"date":"2014-03-24T11:00:18","date_gmt":"2014-03-24T10:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=6842"},"modified":"2024-04-20T12:19:05","modified_gmt":"2024-04-20T10:19:05","slug":"analyse-des-acteurs-et-des-facteurs-des-futures-menaces-pour-la-securite-la-crise-en-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/24\/actors-and-factors-in-future-security-threats-analysis-1-the-crisis-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Acteurs et facteurs dans l'analyse des menaces futures pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 (1) - la crise en Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(photo par Mstyslav Chernov\/Unframe - CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimediacommons) Cette s\u00e9rie d'articles traite du c\u0153ur et de la base du processus analytique de la prospective et de l'alerte, en l'expliquant tout en soulignant les trois d\u00e9fis les plus courants auxquels sont confront\u00e9s les analystes et les participants aux ateliers : identifier correctement les facteurs (cet article) ; sp\u00e9cifier objectivement les acteurs (2-) ; surmonter un m\u00e9lange inad\u00e9quat d'\"acteurs et de facteurs\" (3-). Des pistes pratiques seront sugg\u00e9r\u00e9es. L'exemple qui sera utilis\u00e9 comme \u00e9tude de cas tout au long de ces trois articles est la crise ukrainienne de 2013-2014, avec, comme question correspondante de prospective strat\u00e9gique et d'alerte (SF&amp;W), \"Quels sont les futurs possibles de la crise ukrainienne au cours des deux prochaines ann\u00e9es ?\" Par rapport \u00e0 notre s\u00e9rie m\u00e9thodologique pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, ces billets peuvent sembler aborder plus ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/24\/actors-and-factors-in-future-security-threats-analysis-1-the-crisis-in-ukraine\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Acteurs et facteurs de l'analyse des menaces futures pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 (1) - la crise en Ukraine \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=6842\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(photo par Mstyslav Chernov\/Unframe - CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimediacommons) Cette s\u00e9rie d'articles traite du c\u0153ur et de la base du processus analytique de la prospective et de l'alerte, en l'expliquant tout en soulignant les trois d\u00e9fis les plus courants auxquels sont confront\u00e9s les analystes et les participants aux ateliers : identifier correctement les facteurs (cet article) ; sp\u00e9cifier objectivement les acteurs (2-) ; surmonter un m\u00e9lange inad\u00e9quat d'\"acteurs et de facteurs\" (3-). Des pistes pratiques seront sugg\u00e9r\u00e9es. L'exemple qui sera utilis\u00e9 comme \u00e9tude de cas tout au long de ces trois articles est la crise ukrainienne de 2013-2014, avec, comme question correspondante de prospective strat\u00e9gique et d'alerte (SF&amp;W), \"Quels sont les futurs possibles de la crise ukrainienne au cours des deux prochaines ann\u00e9es ?\" Par rapport \u00e0 notre s\u00e9rie m\u00e9thodologique pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, ces billets peuvent sembler aborder plus ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/24\/actors-and-factors-in-future-security-threats-analysis-1-the-crisis-in-ukraine\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Acteurs et facteurs de l'analyse des menaces futures pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 (1) - la crise en Ukraine \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=6842\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6886,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1206,2502,1784],"tags":[1772,188,1847,61,1837,81,1846,1789,1849,220,1863,2067,196],"class_list":["post-6842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","category-europe","category-ukraine","tag-actors","tag-analysis","tag-attribute","tag-china","tag-crimea","tag-europe","tag-factors","tag-featured","tag-international-currency-system","tag-russia","tag-us","tag-ukraine-issues","tag-variable","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Actors and Factors In Future Security Threats Analysis (1) - the Crisis in Ukraine &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/24\/analyse-des-acteurs-et-des-facteurs-des-futures-menaces-pour-la-securite-la-crise-en-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Actors and Factors In Future Security Threats Analysis (1) - the Crisis in Ukraine &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(photo by Mstyslav Chernov\/Unframe \u2013 CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimediacommons) This series of articles deals with the core and basis of the foresight and warning analytical process, explaining it while stressing three most common challenges analysts and participants to workshops face: identifying factors correctly (this article); specifying actors objectively (2-); overcoming an inadequate mix of &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Actors and Factors In Future Security Threats Analysis (1) &#8211; the Crisis in Ukraine\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/24\/analyse-des-acteurs-et-des-facteurs-des-futures-menaces-pour-la-securite-la-crise-en-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-03-24T10:00:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-20T10:19:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/SState_flag_of_Ukraine_carried_by_a_protester_to_the_heart_of_developing_clashes_in_Kyiv_Ukraine._Events_of_February_18_2014-2014.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"672\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"372\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/24\\\/actors-and-factors-in-future-security-threats-analysis-1-the-crisis-in-ukraine\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/24\\\/actors-and-factors-in-future-security-threats-analysis-1-the-crisis-in-ukraine\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Actors and Factors In Future Security Threats Analysis (1) &#8211; 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