{"id":7115,"date":"2019-02-25T09:06:35","date_gmt":"2019-02-25T08:06:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=7115"},"modified":"2021-10-01T19:29:33","modified_gmt":"2021-10-01T17:29:33","slug":"quand-risque-gestion-rencontre-prospective-alerte-strat%c3%a9gique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/02\/25\/when-risk-management-meets-strategic-foresight-and-warning\/","title":{"rendered":"Quand la gestion des risques rencontre la prospective et l'alerte strat\u00e9giques"},"content":{"rendered":"

La gestion des risques est codifi\u00e9e par la Organisation internationale de normalisation<\/a> (ISO). Il s'adresse \u00e0 toute organisation concern\u00e9e par le risque, qu'elle soit publique ou priv\u00e9e (<\/font>Sandrine Tranchard, \"La nouvelle norme ISO 31000 simplifie la gestion des risques<\/a>\"(ISO News, 15 f\u00e9vrier 2018). Son anc\u00eatre est la science actuarielle, c'est-\u00e0-dire les m\u00e9thodologies d'\u00e9valuation des risques dans les domaines de l'assurance et de la finance (par exemple, l'ENSAE D\u00e9finition<\/a>). Son \u00e9tude, en tant que discipline principalement utile au secteur priv\u00e9, s'est progressivement d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e apr\u00e8s la Seconde Guerre mondiale (Georges Dionne, \"Gestion des risques : Histoire, d\u00e9finition et critique<\/a>\u201c, Examen de la gestion des risques et de l'assurance<\/em>Volume 16, num\u00e9ro 2, automne 2013, p. 147-166).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une autre discipline \"non acad\u00e9mique\" traite des risques, des incertitudes, des menaces et des opportunit\u00e9s ou plus exactement de la surprise. Elle s'appelle la prospective et l'alerte strat\u00e9giques (SF&W). Elle r\u00e9sulte de la r\u00e9union des anciennes Indications et Alertes militaires et de la Prospective strat\u00e9gique. Les officiers de renseignement et les officiers militaires ont principalement d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 la SF&W pour leurs besoins concernant les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale. L'alerte strat\u00e9gique, pour sa part, reste une mission essentielle, par exemple, de la Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) des \u00c9tats-Unis, telle que r\u00e9affirm\u00e9e dans son rapport de septembre 2018 Approche strat\u00e9gique<\/a>. Entre-temps, les ouvrages de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence classiques sur l'alerte strat\u00e9gique font d\u00e9sormais partie de la DIA Liste de lecture du directeur 2018<\/a>. L'alerte strat\u00e9gique et le SF&W sont plus sp\u00e9cifiquement l'origine et la perspective de notre exp\u00e9rience et de notre pratique ici, \u00e0 la Red (Team) Analysis Society. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les deux disciplines et pratiques, la gestion des risques et les SF&W, ont donc une histoire, des acteurs et des objectifs diff\u00e9rents. Pourtant, depuis la r\u00e9vision de la gestion des risques par l'ISO en 2009, nous avons maintenant une correspondance presque parfaite entre les sciences et la technologie et la gestion des risques. La mise \u00e0 jour de la norme ISO 2018 confirme cette similitude. Cet article d\u00e9taillera plus en d\u00e9tail les deux processus, leurs similitudes et leurs compl\u00e9mentarit\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"CIA<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Le nouveau processus de gestion des risques jette ainsi les bases permettant d'incorporer facilement aux risques habituellement g\u00e9r\u00e9s par les entreprises, toutes les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale telles qu'elles sont habituellement li\u00e9es aux int\u00e9r\u00eats nationaux des \u00c9tats, de la g\u00e9opolitique \u00e0 la politique, de la criminalit\u00e9 \u00e0 la guerre en passant par la cybers\u00e9curit\u00e9. En d'autres termes, le processus utilis\u00e9 pour g\u00e9rer les risques externes et internes auxquels le monde des entreprises est confront\u00e9 est d\u00e9sormais similaire \u00e0 la mani\u00e8re dont les \u00c9tats g\u00e8rent leur mission de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale et nationale, en fonction de leurs int\u00e9r\u00eats nationaux. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Liens connexes<\/strong>\n

Renseignement, prospective et alerte strat\u00e9giques, gestion des risques, pr\u00e9vision ou futurisme ?<\/a> <\/p>\n

Analyse d'horizon et surveillance pour l'anticipation : D\u00e9finition et pratique<\/a> <\/p>\n

Prospective et alerte strat\u00e9giques : Processus et concepts<\/a> <\/p>\n<\/div><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

En attendant, ces m\u00eames similitudes entre la gestion des risques et les SF&W devraient faciliter les discussions et les \u00e9changes entre le monde des entreprises et le secteur public, y compris en termes de donn\u00e9es, d'informations, d'analyse et de processus, en fonction des sp\u00e9cificit\u00e9s et de la force de chacun. Lorsque les diff\u00e9rences entre les sciences et la technologie et la gestion des risques subsisteront, nous pourrons les corriger afin de tirer le meilleur des deux mondes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

En effet, ce qui compte, c'est d'anticiper correctement ce qui nous attend et de prendre des mesures ad\u00e9quates. Il ne s'agit pas de se contenter d'un label ou d'un autre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans cet article, nous d\u00e9taillons le processus de gestion des risques. Nous expliquons la nouvelle d\u00e9finition du risque. Nous soulignons ensuite les similitudes avec le SF&W. Nous soulignons, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la gestion des risques est la plus diff\u00e9rente du SF&W, comment le premier pourrait \u00e9galement aider le second. En particulier, la gestion des risques fournit un cadre pour aborder un domaine sensible : \u00e9laborer et proposer des alternatives de politique ou de r\u00e9ponse aux d\u00e9cideurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Il s'agit d'un article de qualit\u00e9. Pour acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article, vous devez devenir l'un de nos membres<\/a> ou prendre notre cours en ligne 1, du processus \u00e0 la mod\u00e9lisation analytique<\/a>, ou cours en ligne 2 : \u00e9laboration de sc\u00e9narios<\/a>. Se connecter<\/a> si vous \u00eates un membre ou un stagiaire. Une version pdf de l'article est disponible pour les membres.

PLEIN ARTICLE 3017 MOTS - pdf 15 pages<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Image en vedette : Le pr\u00e9sident Barack Obama participe \u00e0 une r\u00e9union sur l'Afghanistan dans le Salle de situation<\/a> \u00e0 la Maison Blanche. \u00c0 sa gauche, le conseiller \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale James L. Jones<\/a>Secr\u00e9taire d'\u00c9tat Hillary Clinton<\/a>Ambassadeur des \u00c9tats-Unis aupr\u00e8s des Nations unies Susan Rice<\/a>Directeur national du renseignement Dennis C. Blair<\/a> et directeur de la CIA Leon Panetta<\/a>. A sa droite, le vice-pr\u00e9sident Joe Biden<\/a>Secr\u00e9taire d'\u00c9tat \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense Robert Gates<\/a> (cach\u00e9), pr\u00e9sident de l'amiral des chefs d'\u00e9tat-major interarm\u00e9es Michael Mullen<\/a>Chef de cabinet de la Maison Blanche Rahm Emanuel<\/a>. - 9 octobre 2009, The Official White House Photostream, Maison Blanche (Pete Souza) - Domaine public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les droits d'auteur pour toutes les r\u00e9f\u00e9rences aux normes ISO restent la propri\u00e9t\u00e9 de l'Organisation internationale de normalisation (ISO).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cet article est une version enti\u00e8rement mise \u00e0 jour et r\u00e9vis\u00e9e d'un texte qui a d'abord \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 en tant qu'\u00e9l\u00e9ment du rapport command\u00e9 par le gouvernement am\u00e9ricain, Lavoix, \"Actionable Foresight\", Global Futures Forum, novembre 2010 (pp. 12 & 20-24\/98). <\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le management du risque est codifi\u00e9 par l'Organisation internationale de normalisation (ISO). Il s'adresse \u00e0 toute organisation concern\u00e9e par le risque, qu'elle soit publique ou priv\u00e9e (Sandrine Tranchard, \"La nouvelle ISO 31000 garde le management du risque simple\", ISO News, 15 f\u00e9v 2018). Son anc\u00eatre est l'actuariat, c'est-\u00e0-dire les m\u00e9thodologies d'\u00e9valuation des risques en assurance et en finance (ex. ... <\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture \" Quand la gestion des risques rencontre la prospective et l'alerte strat\u00e9giques \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20785,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1731],"tags":[188,1789,1878,1210,212],"class_list":["post-7115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basics","tag-analysis","tag-featured","tag-policy-alternative","tag-risk","tag-strategic-foresight-and-warning","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nWhen Risk Management Meets Strategic Foresight and Warning • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/02\/25\/quand-risque-gestion-rencontre-prospective-alerte-strat\u00e9gique\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When Risk Management Meets Strategic Foresight and Warning • The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Risk management is codified by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). 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