{"id":7333,"date":"2014-05-22T17:17:31","date_gmt":"2014-05-22T15:17:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=7333"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:11:12","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:11:12","slug":"la-red-team-analysis-weekly-153-le-paradoxe-du-changement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/05\/22\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-153-the-paradox-of-change\/","title":{"rendered":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 153 - Le paradoxe du changement ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Editorial – The paradox of change?<\/strong>\u00a0Reading through the multiple crowd-sourced articles of the Weekly,\u00a0what stands out is\u00a0a perception of an acceleration of change.\u00a0In itself, each flashpoint or\u00a0problem is not new, and has been either underlined or monitored for months and even for years for some of them. Yet, when we look at all of them together, then it seems that they tend to become real, accumulate, or worsen in an accelerating way.<\/p>\n

We may wonder if the acceleration – assuming it is not “just” a question of perception – does not come from the following phenomenon, among certainly others: despite stressing upcoming changes, these emphases may\u00a0remain at a very shallow level when those changes are – consciously or not – equated with something undesirable. As a result, real assessment of situations and decisions taken are one step – to be optimistic – behind, done out of past habits. Then, refusal\u00a0to consider properly ongoing changes\u00a0ends up accelerating them, possibly in a way that is more adverse than what could have happened.\u00a0Take, for example, the awareness of the end of the U.S. dominated unipolar world. It has been underlined for years, including in the U.S.:<\/p>\n

\n

“With the rapid rise of other countries, the \u201cunipolar moment\u201d is over and Pax Americana\u2014the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945\u2014is fast winding down.” (Global Trends 2030, Dec 2012 : x)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Yet, when those countries that were known to be\u00a0part of the new poles of the multipolar world – among them, for example,\u00a0Russia and China – act accordingly, then surprised outrage\u00a0results, while complex explanations to crises recede (read for example Oliver Bullough “Stop forcing Ukraine into a narrative of Moscow versus Washington<\/a>” The Guradian). This immediately puts everyone on an escalating path, considering the power available to all actors in\u00a0this multipolar world, the aim of the ascending poles to see the\u00a0changed world happening and the intrinsic escalating power of erroneous explanations and related misunderstandings.<\/p>\n

Thus, when change is coming – and it always is – what would matter is not only identifying those changes but also the way actors\u00a0truly perceive\u00a0them. From this perception will follow action located on an spectrum ranging from resistance and fear, which will accelerate change and possibly make the result less favourable, to\u00a0acceptation and ability to seize opportunities to bend changes to one’s advantage.\u00a0Assuming this hypothesis is correct, then it\u00a0pleads methodologically for an abundant use of scenarios, simulations and role playing. \u00a0At the level of analysis, it emphasises, if it still needed to be considering the existing literature on the topic, the importance of the role of perceptions in international politics.<\/p>\n

Click on the image below to read the Weekly on Paper.li\"political<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Featured image: High speed by\u00a0By Paolo Neo [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Editorial - Le paradoxe du changement ? \u00c0 la lecture des multiples articles de l'hebdomadaire, ce qui ressort, c'est la perception d'une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du changement. En soi, chaque point n\u00e9vralgique ou probl\u00e8me n'est pas nouveau, et a \u00e9t\u00e9 soulign\u00e9 ou suivi depuis des mois, voire des ann\u00e9es pour certains d'entre eux. Pourtant, lorsque nous les examinons tous ... <\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture \" Analyse hebdomadaire 153 de l'\u00e9quipe rouge - Le paradoxe du changement ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7336,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1078,2479,3249],"tags":[604,61,1856,721,1789,2057,2560,220,1455,2058,1831,2175,2067],"class_list":["post-7333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-new-paradigm","category-monitoring-and-warning","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-change","tag-china","tag-dollar-supremacy","tag-energy-security","tag-featured","tag-india","tag-open-access","tag-russia","tag-shale","tag-syria-issues","tag-thailand","tag-u-s","tag-ukraine-issues","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 153 - The Paradox of Change? • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/05\/22\/la-red-team-analysis-weekly-153-le-paradoxe-du-changement\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 153 - The Paradox of Change? • The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Editorial – The paradox of change?\u00a0Reading through the multiple crowd-sourced articles of the Weekly,\u00a0what stands out is\u00a0a perception of an acceleration of change.\u00a0In itself, each flashpoint or\u00a0problem is not new, and has been either underlined or monitored for months and even for years for some of them. 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