{"id":7651,"date":"2014-06-26T17:54:34","date_gmt":"2014-06-26T15:54:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=7651"},"modified":"2021-10-01T19:12:22","modified_gmt":"2021-10-01T17:12:22","slug":"equipe-analyse-hebdomadaire-158","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/06\/26\/red-team-analysis-weekly-158\/","title":{"rendered":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 158 - L'insurrection criminelle et la guerre ploutocratique de Gilman"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00c9ditorial - <strong>L'insurrection criminelle plutocratique de Gilman et les guerres actuelles<\/strong> - Nous avons suivi et analys\u00e9 la fa\u00e7on dont l <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/categorie\/questions-degalite-entre-hommes-et-femmes-2\/nouveau-paradigme\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">le paradigme actuel est en train de changer<\/a>tout en se demandant ce que pourrait \u00eatre <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/portail-chroniques-futur-etat-moderne\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">l'avenir des autorit\u00e9s politiques<\/a>Ces deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments sont absolument essentiels si nous voulons fournir des analyses pertinentes en mati\u00e8re de prospective et d'alerte strat\u00e9giques. Dans ce cadre, l'article de Nils Gilman, chancelier associ\u00e9 \u00e0 l'Universit\u00e9 de Californie, Berkeley, \"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.the-american-interest.com\/articles\/2014\/06\/15\/the-twin-insurgency\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La double insurrection<\/a>\u201d (<em>L'int\u00e9r\u00eat am\u00e9ricain<\/em>) est \u00e0 lire absolument. En effet, dans une d\u00e9monstration convaincante et magistrale, Gilman rassemble de nombreux \u00e9l\u00e9ments - ou signaux - disparates et explique de mani\u00e8re dynamique et historique comment l'\"\u00c9tat socialiste moderniste\", c'est-\u00e0-dire cette forme sp\u00e9cifique de l'\u00c9tat-nation moderne que nous avons connue entre 1945 et les ann\u00e9es 1970, est en train de dispara\u00eetre sous les attaques de la \"Twin Insurgency\" : une insurrection criminelle, ou plut\u00f4t des insurrections criminelles connexes, attaquent l'\u00c9tat par le bas, tandis qu'une insurrection ploutocratique parasite et sape l'\u00c9tat par le haut.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cependant, aussi \u00e9clairante que soit sa th\u00e9orie, pour une grande partie du monde, on peut n\u00e9anmoins se poser les questions suivantes :<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"... Comme l'\u00c9tat social moderniste n'a pas tenu ses promesses, la notion m\u00eame de r\u00e9volution qui aspire \u00e0 un projet de r\u00e9forme sociale collective \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle nationale est devenue d\u00e9su\u00e8te. (Bien s\u00fbr, les rebelles qui cherchent \u00e0 prendre le contr\u00f4le ou \u00e0 diriger l'\u00c9tat vers des projets de r\u00e9forme sociale existent toujours : Des mouvements marxistes comme les Zapatistes au Mexique ou les Naxalites en Inde, des mouvements islamiques comme Al-Shabaab en Somalie et l'insurrection Moro aux Philippines. Mais il s'agit sans doute de ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes anachroniques)\".<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re, par exemple, de la guerre durable et r\u00e9gionalisante en Syrie, de la reprise de la guerre en Irak, et notamment des avanc\u00e9es et des objectifs de l'ISIS, plus largement des changements \u00e0 l'\u0153uvre dans le grand Moyen-Orient, peut-on vraiment estimer que ces mouvements sont anachroniques ?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Reconna\u00eetre leur importance et leur contemporan\u00e9it\u00e9 ne signifie pas que la th\u00e9orie de Gilman est r\u00e9fut\u00e9e et doit \u00eatre \u00e9cart\u00e9e. Au contraire, nous pouvons nous appuyer sur cette derni\u00e8re pour essayer de comprendre les diff\u00e9rents conflits et guerres actuels - r\u00e9els et potentiels - et les voir dans le cadre d'un conflit syst\u00e9mique qui se d\u00e9roule en raison de la \"Twin Insurgency\". En d'autres termes, si la \"Twin Insurgency\" progresse, elle favorise l'\u00e9mergence d'un nouvel ordre mondial potentiel, auquel on r\u00e9siste. On y r\u00e9siste parce que le vecteur du nouvel ordre ploutocratique et criminel est l'\u00c9tat moderniste parasit\u00e9. En effet, les actions de ces \u00c9tats \u00e9tant sous-optimales, puisqu'elles ont \u00e9t\u00e9 min\u00e9es et parasit\u00e9es par la \"Twin Insurgency\", elles provoquent des r\u00e9actions n\u00e9gatives et donc un refus du nouvel ordre ploutocratique-criminel. En fonction de divers facteurs, de nouvelles voies de progr\u00e8s qui ne sont pas celles de l'ordre ploutocratique-criminel sont cr\u00e9\u00e9es. Ensuite, ces diff\u00e9rents ordres s'affrontent au niveau syst\u00e9mique, et s'accompagnent de toute une s\u00e9rie de conflits \u00e0 diff\u00e9rents niveaux, et entre diff\u00e9rents acteurs.  En supposant que ces id\u00e9es soient correctes, nous pourrions \u00eatre dans une phase de transition jusqu'\u00e0 ce qu'un nouvel \u00e9quilibre soit trouv\u00e9. \u00c0 premi\u00e8re vue, il semblerait que, par exemple, la nouvelle guerre froide, le conflit en Ukraine, le printemps arabe, la mont\u00e9e de l'ISIS, l'\u00e9volution des relations internationales du grand Moyen-Orient, etc. s'inscriraient assez bien dans cette th\u00e9orie \"\u00e9largie\" de Gilman.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Gilman en conclut que les \"perdants ultimes\" du nouvel ordre,<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"les individus des classes moyennes pourraient \u00eatre de plus en plus confront\u00e9s \u00e0 un choix : accepter une perte progressive de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale et une d\u00e9gradation sociale de fait, ou rejoindre l'une des deux insurrections\".<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">En supposant que la fa\u00e7on dont nous avons l\u00e9g\u00e8rement modifi\u00e9 sa th\u00e9orie soit correcte, cela signifierait qu'un choix suppl\u00e9mentaire est \u00e9galement ouvert \u00e0 ces personnes : elles peuvent rejoindre, promouvoir ou contribuer \u00e0 cr\u00e9er l'une des alternatives \u00e9mergentes \u00e0 l'ordre ploutocratique et criminel, sans toutefois avoir de garantie de succ\u00e8s.<\/p>\n<p>Cliquez sur l'image ci-dessous pour lire le Weekly<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/paper.li\/HLavoix\/1323337992?edition_id=ef1c0970-fd06-11e3-aff4-00259071bfed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7658 size-full\" title=\"Le Red Team Analysis Weekly 158 - L&#039;insurrection criminelle plutocratique de Gilman et les guerres actuelles\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/RTAS-158.jpg\" alt=\"Insurrection criminelle ploutocratique\" width=\"550\" height=\"441\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/RTAS-158.jpg 550w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/RTAS-158-250x200.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/RTAS-158-300x240.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Image : <span style=\"color: #252525;\">Deux insurg\u00e9s irakiens arm\u00e9s du nord de l'Irak, appartenant \u00e0 une faction de la\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"extiw\" style=\"color: #663366;\" title=\"w:Insurrection irakienne\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Iraqi_insurgency\">L'insurrection irakienne<\/a><span style=\"color: #252525;\">qui m\u00e8ne des attaques contre les forces am\u00e9ricaines et de la coalition. 2006. Par Menendj (http:\/\/ar.wikipedia.org\/) <a href=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/2.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CC-BY-SA-2.5<\/a>via Wikimedia Commons.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editorial - L'insurrection criminelle ploutocratique de Gilman et les guerres actuelles - Nous avons suivi et analys\u00e9 l'\u00e9volution du paradigme actuel, tout en nous demandant quel pourrait \u00eatre l'avenir des autorit\u00e9s politiques, ces deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments \u00e9tant absolument cruciaux si nous voulons fournir des analyses pertinentes de prospective strat\u00e9gique et d'alerte. Dans ce cadre, l'article de Nils Gilman, chancelier associ\u00e9 \u00e0 ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/06\/26\/red-team-analysis-weekly-158\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Analyse hebdomadaire 158 de l'\u00e9quipe rouge - Le criminel ploutocratique de Gilman Insurrection et guerre \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1078,1583,1604],"tags":[61,81,1789,1902,1620,1650,354,1903,473,1893,2560,610,1900,220,2058,2175,2067,1686],"class_list":["post-7651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-new-paradigm","category-analysis-the-future-of-the-modern-state","category-war","tag-china","tag-europe","tag-featured","tag-insurgency","tag-iraq","tag-isis","tag-modern-nation-state","tag-new-cold-war","tag-norms","tag-oligarchic-system","tag-open-access","tag-organised-crime","tag-plutocracy","tag-russia","tag-syria-issues","tag-u-s","tag-ukraine-issues","tag-world-order","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 158 - Gilman&#039;s Plutocratic Criminal Insurgency and War &#8226; 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