{"id":769,"date":"2020-10-26T19:56:02","date_gmt":"2020-10-26T18:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=769"},"modified":"2021-10-15T11:22:10","modified_gmt":"2021-10-15T09:22:10","slug":"problematique-prospective-alerte-precoce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/10\/26\/strat-foresight-warning-issues\/","title":{"rendered":"Qu'est-ce qu'un probl\u00e8me en termes de prospective strat\u00e9gique, d'alerte pr\u00e9coce ou de scan ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Une question, un probl\u00e8me, ou une probl\u00e9matique (issue en anglais), en termes d'alerte pr\u00e9coce et, par extension, de prospective strat\u00e9gique et alerte pr\u00e9coce (strategic foresight and warning - SF&W - en anglais), est \"une situation, un objectif, une opportunit\u00e9, un danger, une menace ou un risque, qui sont sp\u00e9cifiques et d\u00e9finis\". (Grabo, 2004)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Par exemple, nous pouvons avoir comme question, probl\u00e8me, ou probl\u00e9matique de prospective strat\u00e9gique et alerte pr\u00e9coce, les guerres civiles ou inter\u00e9tatiques<\/a>, les \u00c9tats fragiles, l'instabilit\u00e9<\/a>, s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/a>,<\/a> le p\u00e9trole, les crises \u00e9conomiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 mondiale de l'eau<\/a>, les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies et les pand\u00e9mies telles que le COVID-19<\/a>, etc. Nous abordons ces probl\u00e8mes dans notre section \"Enjeux mondiaux\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De telles probl\u00e9matiques peuvent \u00eatre \u00e9tudi\u00e9es gr\u00e2ce aux m\u00e9thodologies de prospective<\/a>. Pendant le processus ou la phase d'alerte pr\u00e9coce<\/a>, le probl\u00e8me ou la probl\u00e9matique ou encore question fera l'objet d'une veille<\/a>(monitoring), g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des indicateurs bas\u00e9s sur des mod\u00e8les<\/a>. L'analyste \u00e9valuera les d\u00e9veloppements potentiels (pour obtenir un jugement sur le futur).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La veille (monitoring) sur les questions ou probl\u00e9matiques (issues) permettra d'identifier les probl\u00e8mes d'alerte plus sp\u00e9cifiques (problems), lesquels seront ensuite surveill\u00e9s (surveilled), l\u00e0 encore au moyen de mod\u00e8les ad\u00e9quats et d'indicateurs connexes. Si nous consid\u00e9rons l'exemple de l'\u00e9nergie comme m\u00e9ta-question - ou th\u00e8me - alors les probl\u00e9matiques pourraient \u00eatre \"la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 du p\u00e9trole\", \"le pic p\u00e9trolier\", \"le pic de l'uranium\", \"la volatilit\u00e9 des prix du p\u00e9trole\",\"la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 houill\u00e8re\"<\/a>, \"la politique de l'\u00e9nergie entre l'Europe et la Russie\", \"l'\u00e9nergie venant de l'espace\", et les probl\u00e8mes plus sp\u00e9cifiques (problems) pourraient \u00eatre \"la politique de Gasprom\", \"Nord Stream\", \"les tensions p\u00e9troli\u00e8res et gazi\u00e8res en M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e orientale\", etc... Si nous prenons \"les ressources\" en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral comme m\u00e9ta-probl\u00e9matique, alors la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des ressources des grands fonds marins<\/a> est une des probl\u00e9matiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La collecte des informations n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 l'alerte pr\u00e9coce a lieu pendant les phases de veille et de surveillance. Les mod\u00e8les et les indicateurs associ\u00e9s dirigent la collecte des donn\u00e9es et des informations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e9f\u00e9rences<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Grabo, Cynthia M., Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning<\/em><\/a>sous la direction de Jan Goldman (Lanham MD : University Press of America, mai 2004).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Image en vedette par Fathromi Ramdlon<\/a> de Pixabay<\/a> <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un enjeu, en termes d'alerte et par extension de S&T, est \"une situation, un objectif, une opportunit\u00e9, un danger, une menace ou un risque, qui est sp\u00e9cifique et d\u00e9fini.\" (Grabo, 2004) Par exemple, les enjeux de FS&F peuvent \u00eatre les guerres inter\u00e9tatiques et civiles, les \u00c9tats fragiles, l'instabilit\u00e9, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, le p\u00e9trole, la crise \u00e9conomique, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de l'eau \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle mondiale, les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies et les pand\u00e9mies telles que .... <\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture \" Qu'est-ce qu'un enjeu en termes de prospective strat\u00e9gique, d'alerte et d'analyse d'horizon ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28014,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1731,2860],"tags":[1789,92,224,2560,223,2056,237,236,225,226,251],"class_list":["post-769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basics","category-featured","tag-featured","tag-issue","tag-monitoring","tag-open-access","tag-problem","tag-sfw-process","tag-strategic-surprise","tag-strategic-warning","tag-surveillance","tag-terminology","tag-warning-problem","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat is an Issue in terms of Strategic Foresight & Warning and Horizon Scanning? - RTAS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article defines what is an issue for the process of strategic foresight and warning as well as horizon scanning.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/10\/26\/problematique-prospective-alerte-precoce\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What is an Issue in terms of Strategic Foresight & Warning and Horizon Scanning? 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Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/danger-712059_1920.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28014"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}