{"id":9093,"date":"2015-02-12T17:41:51","date_gmt":"2015-02-12T16:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=9093"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:10:12","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:10:12","slug":"red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/02\/12\/red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war\/","title":{"rendered":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 191 - Minsk et la probabilit\u00e9 de la guerre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Chaque semaine, notre scan recueille des signaux faibles - et moins faibles... Nous pr\u00e9sentons ci-dessous certains des \u00e9l\u00e9ments les plus int\u00e9ressants ou pertinents pour chaque section. Lire le scan du 12 f\u00e9vrier \u2192 Monde (toutes les questions li\u00e9es \u00e0 la guerre, \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale et nationale) - En termes de questions majeures, de plus en plus, une semaine ressemble beaucoup \u00e0 la suivante, car les questions s'enracinent. Cependant, au sein de chaque question, des probl\u00e8mes \u00e9mergent, \u00e9voluent et parfois coagulent. Joseph Nye, dans son petit mais excellent ouvrage intitul\u00e9 Understanding International Conflicts : An Introduction to Theory and History, \u00e9crit dans une partie judicieusement nomm\u00e9e The Funnel of Choices : \"Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements se rapprochent au fil du temps, les degr\u00e9s de libert\u00e9 se perdent et la probabilit\u00e9 d'une guerre augmente. Mais l'entonnoir des choix qui s'offrent aux dirigeants peut s'ouvrir \u00e0 nouveau, et les degr\u00e9s de libert\u00e9 pourraient ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/02\/12\/red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" L'analyse de l'(\u00e9quipe) rouge Semaine 191 - Minsk et la probabilit\u00e9 d'une guerre \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=9093\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chaque semaine, notre scan recueille des signaux faibles - et moins faibles... Nous pr\u00e9sentons ci-dessous certains des \u00e9l\u00e9ments les plus int\u00e9ressants ou pertinents pour chaque section. Lire le scan du 12 f\u00e9vrier \u2192 Monde (toutes les questions li\u00e9es \u00e0 la guerre, \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale et nationale) - En termes de questions majeures, de plus en plus, une semaine ressemble beaucoup \u00e0 la suivante, car les questions s'enracinent. Cependant, au sein de chaque question, des probl\u00e8mes \u00e9mergent, \u00e9voluent et parfois coagulent. Joseph Nye, dans son petit mais excellent ouvrage intitul\u00e9 Understanding International Conflicts : An Introduction to Theory and History, \u00e9crit dans une partie judicieusement nomm\u00e9e The Funnel of Choices : \"Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements se rapprochent au fil du temps, les degr\u00e9s de libert\u00e9 se perdent et la probabilit\u00e9 d'une guerre augmente. Mais l'entonnoir des choix qui s'offrent aux dirigeants peut s'ouvrir \u00e0 nouveau, et les degr\u00e9s de libert\u00e9 pourraient ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/02\/12\/red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" L'analyse de l'(\u00e9quipe) rouge Semaine 191 - Minsk et la probabilit\u00e9 d'une guerre \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=9093\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7831,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,2502,1078,2498,3249,1784],"tags":[1968,1856,81,1690,1628,792,2060,220,2175,2067,522,1686],"class_list":["post-9093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-europe","category-new-paradigm","category-russia","category-the-weekly-scan","category-ukraine","tag-boko-haram","tag-dollar-supremacy","tag-europe","tag-international-system","tag-islamic-state","tag-japan","tag-libyan-war","tag-russia","tag-u-s","tag-ukraine-issues","tag-war","tag-world-order","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 191 \u2013 Minsk and the Probability of War &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/02\/12\/red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 191 \u2013 Minsk and the Probability of War &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Each week our\u00a0scan collects weak \u2013 and less weak \u2013 signals\u2026 We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for\u00a0each section. 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Please log in or become a member to gain access.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/02\/12\/red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-02-12T16:41:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:10:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/C-band_Radar-dish_Antenna-2014.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1038\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2015\\\/02\\\/12\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-191-%e6%98%8e%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b-%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2015\\\/02\\\/12\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-191-%e6%98%8e%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b-%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 191 \u2013 Minsk and the Probability of War\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-02-12T16:41:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-14T08:10:12+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2015\\\/02\\\/12\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-191-%e6%98%8e%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b-%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1320,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2015\\\/02\\\/12\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-191-%e6%98%8e%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b-%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/C-band_Radar-dish_Antenna-2014.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Boko Haram\",\"dollar supremacy\",\"Europe\",\"international system\",\"Islamic state\",\"Japan\",\"Libyan war\",\"Russia\",\"U.S\",\"Ukraine issues\",\"war\",\"world order\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Americas\",\"Europe\",\"International Order and New Paradigm\",\"Russia\",\"The Weekly Scan - Editorial Archives\",\"Ukraine\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2015\\\/02\\\/12\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-191-%e6%98%8e%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b-%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2015\\\/02\\\/12\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-191-%e6%98%8e%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b-%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2015\\\/02\\\/12\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-191-%e6%98%8e%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b-%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 191 \u2013 Minsk and the Probability of War &#8226; 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