{"id":9952,"date":"2015-06-29T11:40:46","date_gmt":"2015-06-29T09:40:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=9952"},"modified":"2024-05-23T15:58:33","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T13:58:33","slug":"sc%c3%a9narios-future-libye-scenario-1-en-paix-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/06\/29\/scenarios-future-libya-scenario-1-towards-peace-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 : Vers la paix ? (1)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Image : Participants au dialogue libyen \u00e0 Skhirat, Maroc, publi\u00e9 sur la page Facebook de l'UNSMIL, 26 juin 2015r Apr\u00e8s nous \u00eatre attach\u00e9s \u00e0 comprendre les acteurs de la guerre civile en Libye et avoir pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 les grandes lignes de nos sc\u00e9narios (voir l'article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent), nous allons, dans cet article, commencer \u00e0 d\u00e9tailler les sc\u00e9narios et \u00e0 \u00e9valuer leur probabilit\u00e9, en commen\u00e7ant par \u00e9valuer le potentiel d'une solution pacifique pour l'avenir de la Libye dans les trois \u00e0 cinq ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir. Sc\u00e9nario 1 : Vers la paix Le Conseil des repr\u00e9sentants (COR) et le Congr\u00e8s g\u00e9n\u00e9ral national (CGN) ont accept\u00e9 de participer \u00e0 des pourparlers diplomatiques dans le but de parvenir \u00e0 la paix et de mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre civile en Libye. Cliquez pour agrandir l'image Sc\u00e9nario 1.1 : Les n\u00e9gociations de paix, men\u00e9es sous l'\u00e9gide de forces ext\u00e9rieures, sont couronn\u00e9es de succ\u00e8s et un trait\u00e9 de paix est ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/06\/29\/scenarios-future-libya-scenario-1-towards-peace-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 : Vers la paix ? (1) \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=9952\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Image : Participants au dialogue libyen \u00e0 Skhirat, Maroc, publi\u00e9 sur la page Facebook de l'UNSMIL, 26 juin 2015r Apr\u00e8s nous \u00eatre attach\u00e9s \u00e0 comprendre les acteurs de la guerre civile en Libye et avoir pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 les grandes lignes de nos sc\u00e9narios (voir l'article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent), nous allons, dans cet article, commencer \u00e0 d\u00e9tailler les sc\u00e9narios et \u00e0 \u00e9valuer leur probabilit\u00e9, en commen\u00e7ant par \u00e9valuer le potentiel d'une solution pacifique pour l'avenir de la Libye dans les trois \u00e0 cinq ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir. Sc\u00e9nario 1 : Vers la paix Le Conseil des repr\u00e9sentants (COR) et le Congr\u00e8s g\u00e9n\u00e9ral national (CGN) ont accept\u00e9 de participer \u00e0 des pourparlers diplomatiques dans le but de parvenir \u00e0 la paix et de mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre civile en Libye. Cliquez pour agrandir l'image Sc\u00e9nario 1.1 : Les n\u00e9gociations de paix, men\u00e9es sous l'\u00e9gide de forces ext\u00e9rieures, sont couronn\u00e9es de succ\u00e8s et un trait\u00e9 de paix est ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/06\/29\/scenarios-future-libya-scenario-1-towards-peace-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 : Vers la paix ? (1) \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=9952\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":9960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,3247],"tags":[1789,2060,190],"class_list":["post-9952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-featured","tag-libyan-war","tag-scenarios","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1: Towards Peace? (1) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/06\/29\/sc\u00e9narios-future-libye-scenario-1-en-paix-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1: Towards Peace? 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