{"id":9977,"date":"2015-06-30T16:31:43","date_gmt":"2015-06-30T14:31:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=9977"},"modified":"2017-05-30T18:45:57","modified_gmt":"2017-05-30T16:45:57","slug":"grece-and-the-the-brics-bank-a-forgotten-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/06\/30\/greece-and-the-brics-bank-a-forgotten-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"La Gr\u00e8ce et la banque BRICS, un sc\u00e9nario oubli\u00e9 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The decision by Prime Minister Tsipras (e.g. The Guardian<\/a><\/em>) on 26 June 2015 to consult Greek\u00a0citizens in a referendum on their wish to accept or not the never-ending austerity measures\u00a0demanded\u00a0as part\u00a0of the current bailout was obviously an unexpected move for Greece’s creditors. From the\u00a0Greek government’s point of view, it was, however, a logical one considering the intransigence of the creditors, refusing to co\"Grexit,nsider the plight of most of the Greek people, as well as considering the absurdity of measures that only end up ever-reducing the overall Greek national wealth, as again pointed out, for example, by Nobel-Prize economist Paul Krugman (“Greece Over the Brink<\/a>“, The New York Times<\/em>, 29 June 2015). It sent shock waves throughout Greece’s\u00a0“creditors-system”.<\/p>\n

Since then, officials compete to make declarations\u00a0aiming at explaining with great difficulty\u00a0that\u00a0a referendum is wrong in a system that is meant to uphold democracy as a fundamental value and at convincing Greek people that the bail out with the famous IMF structural reforms and the austerity measures demanded by Europe are the only way forward, threatening the horrid consequences of default (e.g. President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, “press conference on Greece<\/a>“, 29 June 2015). Negotiations, however, also continue (e.g. BBC News<\/a><\/em> 30 June). Meanwhile, the media try to envision if we shall have a Grexit, i.e. an exit from the Euro zone, what could be the impact for the financial world, also underlining the terrible consequences for people.<\/p>\n

There is, however, another potential scenario, which any foresight exercise should consider, and that, publicly at least,\u00a0is not mentioned: Greece is not isolated, and there are other players, including financially, in the world than the IMF, and the European neo-liberal establishment.<\/p>\n

Greece, the first country also bailed out by the new BRICS bank and fund?<\/h1>\n

Indeed, assuming on 5 July 2015 Greek citizens vote “no” to the austerity reforms as recommended by their Prime Minister, what if Greece were to be bailed out by the “$100 billion BRICS New Development Bank and …\u00a0currency reserve pool worth another $100 billion” that is expected to\u00a0be launched – what a synchronous timeline! – during the 8-10 July twin 7th BRICS summit and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia (RT<\/a><\/em>, 26 June 2015)? This scenario obviously assumes that such bailouts will be part of the mission of the bank and potentially associated funds.<\/p>\n

Considering the amount and repartition of the Greek debt (see chart Open Europe, “Who does Greece owe?”,\u00a0BBC News<\/a><\/em>, 30 June 2015),\u00a0<\/em>such a new bail out would be\u00a0unlikely to cover the overall debt. However, we may assume it would\u00a0to the least cover the IMF share, Greece maybe defaulting on\u00a0this part of the debt.<\/p>\n

\"Grexit,<\/a>
From Alexis Tsipras Flickr photos Taken on23 March 2015 – (CC BY-SA 2.0)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At the European negotiation table to help Greece would now sit not Lagarde and the IMF, but the head of the new BRICS Bank and, through him or her, Rousseff (Brazil), Putin (Russia), Modi (India), Xi Ping (China) and Zuma (South Africa). It would then be\u00a0highly probable that the new BRICS bank would not ask for austerity measures as they offer a different socio-ideological model from the neo-liberal one.<\/p>\n

Indeed, none of the BRICS have an interest in\u00a0a collapse of the Euro, as their aim is to favour a truly multipolar world (e.g. “‘BRICS key to multipolar world’- Putin<\/a>“, The BRICS Post<\/em>, 22 March 2013). Their interest is more likely to put an end of a U.S.-led unipolar world and thus to the supremacy of the U.S. Dollar, upheld by the Washington consensus, as we have followed here (see “Of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Petrodollars<\/a>“, 16 April 2015; \u00a0“Risks on the USD supremacy<\/a>“, 27 March 2014, etc.). Thus, the BRICS, assuming such a scenario occur,\u00a0would probably initially try to negotiate by the side of\u00a0Greece to see the latter\u00a0remaining within the eurozone. They would, however, probably also be ready to welcome Greece fully in their fold should no other option be left open. During negotiations under this scenario, those who would be under tremendous pressure would be European leaders as, most probably, the U.S. would then do their\u00a0utmost not to see Europe siding more with the new BRICS-led pole\u00a0and less with them.<\/p>\n

Is such a scenario plausible?<\/h1>\n

All the BRICS, promoting a true multipolarity, would also most probably encourage the emergence\u00a0of a relatively strong\u00a0Europe and European states, which would fully play an independent role on the world stage. This Europe would\u00a0neither be subservient to the U.S. nor perpetually under the threat of a default. This Europe and its states are necessary to a multipolar world. The BRICS country, as explained above,\u00a0would also have an obvious interest in further displacing the IMF.<\/p>\n

For all the BRICS countries, and\u00a0this is probably more particularly important for\u00a0countries with a long history, i.e. Russia, India and notably China, being the ones to bail out another “old country” with a prestigious past would mean that the time of being despised, patronized and talked down to has ended and that\u00a0they are not only fully equal partners at the table of nations, but also there with a strong position.<\/p>\n

\"Grexit,<\/a>
From Alexis Tsipras Flickr photos, Taken on February 19, 2015 – (CC BY-SA 2.0)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

China, notably with its “one belt, one road” strategy certainly has an interest in seeing Greece not falling into chaos but becoming part of the belt, as explained by JM Valantin (“China and the New Silk Road: the Pakistani Strategy<\/a>“, 18 May 2015; “China, Israel ad the New Silk Road<\/a>“, 8 June 2015; The Red (Team) Analysis Society<\/em>). Furthermore, China is already a serious investor in Greece (Silvia Merler, “China seeking to cash in on Europe\u2019s crises<\/a>“, Bruegel<\/em>, 16 October 2014).<\/p>\n

\"Grexit,<\/a>
From Alexis Tsipras Flickr photos, Taken on April 8, 2015 – (CC BY-SA 2.0)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Russia has already signed a contract with Greece for its new Turkish Stream pipeline (RT<\/a><\/em>, 19 June 2015),\u00a0and, considering the continuous aggressive stance of NATO and the U.S. – be it considered as legitimate or not by the American-led side – (e.g. see the host of related articles in 25 June 2015 Weekly<\/a>), as well as the European sanctions regarding Ukraine,\u00a0may only have an interest in seeing the overall balance of power change on the European continent. It might also be an opportunity for Russia to show that it did really mean it wanted to build a cooperative world (among many statements, “\u2018Russia has no aggressive plans, will always prefer political settlement\u2019 – Putin<\/a>“, RT<\/em>, 25 June 2015) and promote a peaceful Eurasian strategy (S. Frederick Starr and\u00a0Svante E. Cornell, ed.\u00a0Putin\u2019s Grand Strategy:The Eurasian Union and Its\u00a0Discontents<\/em>,<\/a> Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2014), yet without authorising anyone to directly threatened its essential strategic and national interest, which, from the Russian\u00a0point of view, led to the necessity to incorporate Crimea within the Russian Federation (e.g. Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West\u2019s Fault<\/a>“, Foreign Affairs, <\/em>Sept-Oct 2014).<\/p>\n

The majority of Greek citizens as well as the current Syriza government and its deputies certainly would have interest in such a scenario, as it would potentially mean defaulting only for a small part of their debt and\/or only temporarily, then being able to renegotiate a reimbursement of their debt under\u00a0conditions that would not imply a slow disappearance\u00a0of the country and the never-ending pauperisation of its population (among others, Krugman, ibid.).<\/p>\n

On the contrary, the Greek oligarchs and those they have co-opted have no interest whatsoever in this scenario. Similarly, the Western proponents of the neo-liberal system and oligarchs may only see as a threat even the fact this scenario could be envisioned, as it shows that the hegemony of their ideology is fading.<\/p>\n

Assuming world actors have really thought about this scenario, the battle for the heart and mind of the Greek people until Sunday is most likely to spare no means, including further negotiations as is the case on 30 June 2015 (see “Greece debt crisis: ‘Last-minute talks after new offer<\/a>” BBC News<\/em>).<\/p>\n

Why, then, if this scenario is plausible, is no one from\u00a0the BRICS or from the Tsipras government hinting at this possibility? Why, on the contrary, does Russia seem to insist that it does not intend to lend money to Greece (Associated Press<\/em>, “The Latest: Russia dismisses talk of lending money to Greece<\/a>“, 30 June 2015)? As far as Russia is concerned, a bail out by the BRICS bank would not be done by Russia, thus technically they would not be lying. Yet, would they not have interest to give hope to the Greek people? Considering the global high level of tension, and the propensity to accuse Russia of propaganda, if the scenario imagined here were\u00a0to succeed, then it would be important that the Greek people take their decision alone, without any suspicion of manipulation. Furthermore, from a lender’s point of view, it would\u00a0also be important for the BRICS bank to be fully certain that the current Greek government has the support of its population. Indeed, even without as stringent austerity measures as those imposed by the current lenders and without the IMF cherished structural reforms, the road ahead would\u00a0nevertheless most probably be difficult. The choice, thus, must remain with\u00a0the Greek citizens.<\/p>\n

The impact of such as scenario, should it happen, would be tremendous because, beyond the immediate and relatively sudden re-design of the monetary and financial conditions for Greece and the world, beyond a new serious severe blow to the supremacy of the U.S. dollar as upheld by the Washington consensus, it would imply that a\u00a0socio-ideological model that\u00a0is not the capitalist neo-liberal one exists, is viable and is chosen by a Western nation. Greece being the cradle of democracy, and the choice having been made through a democratic referendum,\u00a0would multiply the potential strength and attraction of this new model.<\/p>\n

The ongoing transition towards a\u00a0future that is actively being created accelerates.<\/p>\n

Featured image:\u00a0BRICS heads of state and government hold hands ahead of the 2014 G-20 summit in Brisbane, Australia.\u00a015 November 2014 by\u00a0Roberto Stuckert Filho\u00a0[CC BY 3.0 br (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/br\/deed.en)], via Wikimedia Commons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La d\u00e9cision prise par le Premier ministre Tsipras (ex : The Guardian) le 26 juin 2015 de consulter les citoyens grecs par r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum sur leur souhait d'accepter ou non les mesures d'aust\u00e9rit\u00e9 sans fin exig\u00e9es dans le cadre du renflouement actuel \u00e9tait \u00e9videmment une d\u00e9marche inattendue pour les cr\u00e9anciers de la Gr\u00e8ce. Du point de vue du gouvernement grec, il s'agissait pourtant d'une d\u00e9marche logique compte tenu de .... <\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture \" La Gr\u00e8ce et la banque BRICS, un sc\u00e9nario oubli\u00e9 ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2497,2502,1078,2498],"tags":[838,61,80,89,220],"class_list":["post-9977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-europe","category-new-paradigm","category-russia","tag-brics","tag-china","tag-euro","tag-greece","tag-russia","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nGreece and the BRICS Bank, a Forgotten Scenario? • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/06\/30\/grece-and-the-the-brics-bank-a-forgotten-scenario\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Greece and the BRICS Bank, a Forgotten Scenario? • The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The decision by Prime Minister Tsipras (e.g. The Guardian) on 26 June 2015 to consult Greek\u00a0citizens in a referendum on their wish to accept or not the never-ending austerity measures\u00a0demanded\u00a0as part\u00a0of the current bailout was obviously an unexpected move for Greece’s creditors. 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