extreme weather events Archives • The Red Team Analysis Society

Hyper Siege: Climate Change versus U.S. National Security

Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 09:46:05 +0000

In a passage of the “Seven Pillars of Wisdom”, T.E. Lawrence, a.k.a. “Lawrence of Arabia”, recalls that, as he waged a guerrilla war in the Arabian Desert, he was looking for a way to besiege an Ottoman garrison. He then had a kind of military epiphany, understanding that he did not need to do that, because the garrison was already besieged … by the desert. All he had to do was to stay mobile. However, a siege can be a very strong position for the defendant, which, often, can be defeated only from inside, as a long military history shows since the Trojan War. One can wonder if, nowadays, the U.S. national defence and security apparatus is not in the same …

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Climate Change and U.S. National Security: a Geoeconomic Approach

Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 12:17:19 +0000

In May 2013 and February 2014, Secretary of State John Kerry defined climate change as a global strategic threat. In May 2013, he declared: “… A principal challenge to all of us of life and death proportions is the challenge of climate change… So it’s not just an environmental issue and it’s not just an economic issue. It is a security issue, a fundamental security issue that affects life as we know it on the planet itself, and it demands urgent attention from all of us” (John Kerry, Remarks with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeld, May 14 2013). In February 2014, on a diplomatic tour in Jakarta, he said: “When I think about the array of global climate – of …

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2218 – 2223 EVT – Complex Catastrophes (Mamominarch)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 08:00:56 +0000

Any type of similar natural events and catastrophes can be imagined to strike countries, from pandemic to floods, snowstorms, cyclones, fire, etc. Last episode’s summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, …

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2218 EVT – Tragic events

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 05:58:42 +0000

Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate's destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate.

The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however comes first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. In that case, ....