Islamic state Archives • The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/tag/islamic-state/ Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios Tue, 31 May 2022 15:24:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://redanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-RTAS-Logo-Vectorise-Disque-Blanc-PNG-1000-x-1000-32x32.png Islamic state Archives • The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/tag/islamic-state/ 32 32 128105080 Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks? https://redanalysis.org/2022/02/14/multiplicating-crises-strategic-surprises-or-strategic-shocks/ https://redanalysis.org/2022/02/14/multiplicating-crises-strategic-surprises-or-strategic-shocks/#respond Mon, 14 Feb 2022 10:56:25 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=10186 Continue reading "Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2022/02/14/multiplicating-crises-strategic-surprises-or-strategic-shocks/feed/ 0 10186 Everything you Need to Know to Understand the Islamic State’s Terrorist Attacks, Cope … and Fight Back https://redanalysis.org/2017/11/01/everything-need-know-understand-islamic-states-terrorist-attacks-cope-fight-back/ https://redanalysis.org/2017/11/01/everything-need-know-understand-islamic-states-terrorist-attacks-cope-fight-back/#respond Wed, 01 Nov 2017 06:56:24 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=16840 Continue reading "Everything you Need to Know to Understand the Islamic State’s Terrorist Attacks, Cope … and Fight Back"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2017/11/01/everything-need-know-understand-islamic-states-terrorist-attacks-cope-fight-back/feed/ 0 16840 Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Lasting Salafist Victory https://redanalysis.org/2017/09/11/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-lasting-salafist-victory/ Mon, 11 Sep 2017 07:55:06 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=15887 In this article, however unlikely it would appear currently*, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the Salafists — in other words, the ability of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the initial victory of both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, finding that an Al-Qaeda victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered to be sub-scenarios of …

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]]> 15887 Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Salafist Victory? https://redanalysis.org/2017/07/10/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-salafist-victory/ Mon, 10 Jul 2017 08:54:04 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=15706 In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory in Libya in the medium term by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the lasting victory of each government, finding that a COR victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in the indicators, mapping and likelihoods. Indeed, as events unfolded and intervention took …

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]]> 15706 The Middle East Powder Keg and the Great Battle for Raqqa https://redanalysis.org/2017/06/12/the-middle-east-powder-keg-and-the-great-battle-for-raqqa/ Mon, 12 Jun 2017 08:23:20 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=15248 As events accelerate both within Syria on the battlefield and in the region, this article monitors and analyse these developments. It seeks to answer the question: do the unfolding states of affairs increase, or on the contrary decrease, the likelihood to see an intensification of Turkish escalation against the Syrian Kurds and, de facto, Northern Syria? We shall look first at the race that is taking place on the Syrian battlefield around the Battle of Raqqa and towards Deir es-Zor, there addressing furthermore the entrance of a new level of Iranian influence. We shall then turn to the evolving crisis around Qatar, pointing out notably impacts on Turkey and how  that crisis and the Battle of Raqqa feed into each other to heighten the risk to …

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]]> 15248 Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (6) : The Psychological Impact of the Islamic State Terrorist Attacks https://redanalysis.org/2017/02/06/psychological-impact-islamic-state-terrorist-attacks-geopolitics-uncertainties-business-6/ Mon, 06 Feb 2017 10:16:03 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=13833 This article is the second of a two-parts of a series seeking to identify the impacts of the current and most probably forthcoming terrorist attacks by the Islamic State and other jihadist groups, and focuses on major socio-psychological consequences. It follows a first article, which started outlining a framework for impact assessment out of our current understanding of the economic consequences of terrorism, which notably pointed out the need to use mapping as methodology if the complex and cascading characters of these impacts are to be properly assessed. The larger aim of the series is notably to understand if businesses should or not neglect these aggressions and related geopolitical uncertainties, while finding out ways to foresee these risks so as to best design answers (see Helene Lavoix, “Businesses and Geopolitics: Caught up in the Whirlwinds? (1)”, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, 17 Oct 2016)

To find out which could be the psychological impacts of the ongoing string of terrorist attacks, we

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]]> 13833 The Impact of the Islamic State Terrorist Attacks – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (5) https://redanalysis.org/2017/01/16/impact-islamic-state-terrorist-attacks-geopolitics-uncertainties-business-4/ Mon, 16 Jan 2017 09:42:25 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=13710 Since the Islamic State declared a Khilafah on 29 June 2014, it carried out, worldwide, 6 attacks or series of attacks in 2014, which killed 2 and wounded 12 people, 23 in 2015, which killed 1020 and wounded more than 2171, 36 in 2016, which killed more than 1455 and wounded more than 3505 and so far 3 in 2017, which killed more than 109 and wounded more than 169 people, assuming all attacks are known and referenced as such (Wikipedia “List of terrorist incidents linked to ISIL“). As a whole, we thus faced 68 attacks, during which more than 2586 people lost their lives and more than 5857 were injured. Prospects for the near future look no less grim as reminded …

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]]> 13710 Scenarios for the Future of Libya – Sc 4.1 An Al-Qaida Victory https://redanalysis.org/2016/12/12/scenarios-future-libya-sc-4-1-al-qaida-victory/ Mon, 12 Dec 2016 08:35:27 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=13569 This article focuses on the first of the scenarios depicting a Salafist victory, where Al-Qaida (AQ) becomes the dominant force on the battlefield, defeats the other actors, then works towards establishing the caliphate. In our previous scenario we detailed the scenario of a nationalist victory where the new government guides Libya towards a secular and nationalist state where Sharia is not a source of governance. Note: Considering the future names of potential factions that would result from a new split between the unity government, we shall use the label nationalist for those that supported the nationalist-dominated Council of Representatives (COR) and any future anti-Islamist factions; Islamist to note those that supported the General National Congress (GNC) and any future pro-political …

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]]> 13569 Fighting the Islamic State’s Terrorism at Home – Truly Defend and Strike Back https://redanalysis.org/2016/07/18/fighting-islamic-states-terrorism-home-strike-back/ Mon, 18 Jul 2016 08:32:19 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=12453 This is the second part of the series looking for a third way to – truly – fight against the Islamic State’s – and other salafi-jihadi’s – terrorist attacks at home, away from polarisation. Unfortunately, in the light of the spat of terrorist attacks in Bangladesh, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, in France again and again, in Germany and on 22 March 2017 in London, especially considering the way these attacks were carried out, this series of two articles becomes even more salient (e.g. “1–2 July 2016 Dhaka attack“, Wikipedia; “Istanbul airport attack: Isis behind deaths of at least 41, PM says“, The Guardian, 29 June 2016; “Nineteen people arrested over Saudi Arabia attacks“, Al Jazeera, 8 July 2016, “Nice attack: At least …

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]]> 12453 The Libyan War Spills Over to Egypt, Algeria, Niger and Europe – Scenarios for the Future of Libya https://redanalysis.org/2016/07/11/scenarios-future-libya-sc-2-2-2-libyan-civil-war-spills-algeria-niger-egypt-europe/ Mon, 11 Jul 2016 08:00:48 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=12586 This article is the second of our series focusing on scenarios depicting the range of spillover that could stem from the Libyan war. In our previous article, we detailed two scenarios of spillover that initiate a renewed war encompassing more than just Libya. We discussed a case of spillover in one direction – where Europe is drawn into this renewed war, as well as spillover in two directions, where Algeria and Niger are also drawn into the war. In this article, we shall conclude the spillover scenarios with a contagion taking place in all directions (west towards Algeria, south towards Niger, east towards Egypt, and north towards Europe). It is important to note our choices for spillover sub-scenarios. There are …

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