migrants Archives • The Red Team Analysis Society

Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 14 Feb 2022 10:56:25 +0000

(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli using a photograph created by Pete Linforth) Over the last decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded. They continue to do so. Most actors, from governments and international organisations to businesses through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which …

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Belarus and the Weaponization of Migration – Anthropocene Wars (1)

Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) — Mon, 07 Feb 2022 12:44:58 +0000

(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Belarus borders: theatre of operations Since July 2021, the Belarusian government literally projects migrants to the borders of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Those people come from Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, Kurdistan, Afghanistan, Algeria, Morocco, the Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Venezuela (Yuras Karmanau, “Explainer: What’s behind the Belarus-Poland border crisis ?”, …

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Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition

Jon Mitchell (Ma) — Tue, 09 May 2017 11:02:59 +0000

Featured image: Operation Triton by Tomh903 [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring—thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. When discussing the potential directions of spillover, north refers to Europe; east refers to Egypt; south refers to Niger and Chad; and west refers to Algeria and Tunisia. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and …

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The Libyan War Spills Over to Egypt, Algeria, Niger and Europe – Scenarios for the Future of Libya

Jon Mitchell (Ma) — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 08:00:48 +0000

This article is the second of our series focusing on scenarios depicting the range of spillover that could stem from the Libyan war. In our previous article, we detailed two scenarios of spillover that initiate a renewed war encompassing more than just Libya. We discussed a case of spillover in one direction – where Europe is drawn into this renewed war, as well as spillover in two directions, where Algeria and Niger are also drawn into the war. In this article, we shall conclude the spillover scenarios with a contagion taking place in all directions (west towards Algeria, south towards Niger, east towards Egypt, and north towards Europe). It is important to note our choices for spillover sub-scenarios. There are …

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