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Analytical Model for Strategic Foresight and Warning, Risk Management, Scenario-building
。Practically develop and enhance, step by step, your anticipatory analytical skills to tackle complex geopolitical, domestic and global contemporary issues, in a way that can be used with and by most strategic foresight and warning or anticipatory methodologies. Notably learn to properly map an issue for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management.
For trainees with instalments, if you want to know when you will be able to access a unit, click on the unit itself or find a timetable in My account >> Memberships >> Then choose your course and click either on the name of the course or on "View"
。For trainees with instalments, if you want to know when you will be able to access a unit, click on the unit itself or find a timetable in My account >> Memberships >> Then choose your course and click either on the name of the course or on "View"
| 模块 1 | SF&W 分析员和干事的任务 | |
|---|---|---|
| This module explains what is anticipation of national and international security issues or political and geopolitical problems and why it matters for public but also corporate actors. It underlines the main aims that analysts and officers seek to attain, and spells out major challenges. It presents the overall process and methodology for strategic foresight and warning or risk analysis. | ||
| 单位 1 | 我们为什么和如何进行预测？ | |
| 单位 2 | 战略预见和警告以及分析员-官员任务 | |
| 模块 2 | 分析的基本原理 | |
| This module will first deal with biases, which are so challenging for analysis. It is thus crucial to understand biases before to begin tackling the practice of analysis, if we want to mitigate the way these unconscious mental errors can hinder analysis.It will not only deal with the well-known cognitive biases but address all types of biases. Each time a bias will be explained, ways to mitigate it or cope with it will be suggested. The module will then explain and "de-dramatize" models and underline their importance for analysis. It will introduce progressively the use of graphs and networks for analytical modeling. | ||
| 单位 1 | 打开 "心灵锻造的枷锁" (1) | |
| 单位 2 | 打开 "心灵锻造的枷锁" (2) | |
| 单位 3 | 打开 "心灵锻造的枷锁" (3) | |
| 单位 4 | 模型、图形和网络 (1) | |
| 单位 5 | 模型、图形和网络 (2) | |
| 模块 3 | 分析软件 | |
| In this module you will be introduced to open source and free software products - yEd Graph and Gephi - which we shall use in the rest of the course. The advantages of using these software for anticipatory analysis will be underlined and followed by two tutorials, one per software product. | ||
| 单位 1 | 教程--用yEd Graph创建一个图表 | |
| 单位 2 | 教程 - 用Gephi创建图表 | |
| 模块 4 | 构建你的图。从因素、行为者和变量到模型的构建 | |
| With this module you will build upon what you saw previously and use it to learn progressively to build a full graph or network for a national or international security issue, or risk, optimised for strategic foresight and warning, risk analysis, or more generally all anticipatory analysis. You will improve your skills at identifying the actors and factors that are crucial for analyzing geopolitical, global and national/domestic security issues, as well as transforming them in a way that allows for proper future-oriented analysis. Finally, this module will explain how to put everything together to obtain a model that is usable across needs. | ||
| 单位 1 | 国家和国际安全问题图表的构件 | |
| 单位 2 | 动态政治分析的基本原理 | |
| 单位 3 | 从因素和行为者到变量 | |
| 单位 4 | 构建图表（双单元） | |
藉由 WP课件
