对我们2012年预测样本的评估突出了对国家安全的普遍传统观点，新的问题被忽视；在我们对问题的理解相对较好的情况下，相对无法评估时机；存在重大偏见，特别是关于中国、俄罗斯和美国；对新问题和新背景下的旧问题进行预测的难度。
标签存档：2012
评估年终预测的实验 (1)
2012年预测数据库
预见之火的审判。经济学人》2012年的预测
2212 EVT：过时的世界观中的物质利害关系（《Everstate编年史》）。
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population as authorities cannot anymore deliver security. The last phenomenon driving Everstatan governing bodies’ rising inefficiency in ensuring their mission is an outdated worldview that leads to misunderstanding and disconnect, which is first upheld …
继续阅读“2212 EVT: Material Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)”
2212 EVT：过时的世界观中的意识形态利害关系（《Everstate编年史》）。
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. The increasing incapacity of the political authorities to deliver the security citizens seek increases the risks to the legitimacy of the whole system. The first two phenomena driving Everstatan political authorities’ incapacity to deliver …
继续阅读“2212 EVT: Ideological Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)”
2212 EVT：Novstate的力量（Everstate的编年史）
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, the deepening chronic budget deficit and the rising need for liquidity of Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) give an increasing power to the lenders elite group, allowing for new forms of appropriation of public power. Everstate sinks into a vicious circle. On the difficulty of …
继续阅读“2212 EVT: the Power of Novstate (The Chronicles of Everstate)”
2212 EVT：公共资源和贷款人（Everstate的编年史）
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) sees a mounting discontent of its population because it has become insecure considering the impact of the new still misunderstood conditions. Three related phenomena drive Everstatan political authorities’ incapacity to deliver security. First, Everstate faces a changing set of resources implying …
继续阅读“2212 EVT: Public Resources and Lenders (The Chronicles of Everstate)”
