&lt;?xml version=&quot;1.0&quot; encoding=&quot;UTF-8&quot;?<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>认识论归档 • The Red Team Analysis Society</title>
	<atom:link href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/tag/epistemology/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/标签/认识论/</link>
	<description>战略前瞻与早期预警 ･ 政治与地缘政治风险 · 情景分析</description>
	<lastBuildDate>周五, 24 五月 2024 15:17:02 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>zh-Hans</language>
	<sy:updateperiod>
	每小时	</sy:updateperiod>
	<sy:updatefrequency>
	1	</sy:updatefrequency>
	

<image>
	<url>https://redanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-RTAS-Logo-Vectorise-Disque-Blanc-PNG-1000-x-1000-32x32.png</url>
	<title>认识论归档 • The Red Team Analysis Society</title>
	<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/标签/认识论/</link>
	<width>32</width>
	<height>32</height>
</image> 
<site xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">128105080</site>	<item>
		<title>塔勒布的黑天鹅。预见的终结？</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2013/01/21/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jan 2013 14:42:52 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis and Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Definitions and process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[anticipation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[black swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[despair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[epistemology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[falsifiability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fractal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futurism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gray swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hope]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[induction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Popper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[probability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wild card]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=3746</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>自 2007 年纳西姆-尼古拉斯-塔勒布出版畅销书《黑天鹅：极不可能事件的影响》以来，"黑天鹅 "和 "黑天鹅事件 "已成为日常用语的一部分。它们作为口头禅被用来表示两种不同的含义。首先，布鲁金斯有趣的互动式 "简报"《大赌注和黑天鹅》就是这样：i]第二，"黑天鹅 "指的是绝对无法预测的事件，例如《经济学人》的 "预测游戏"：去年的赢家和输家"。不幸的是，在这种情况下，"黑天鹅 "这个标签就成了先见之明的借口...... </p>
<p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2013/01/21/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"塔勒布的黑天鹅：前瞻性的终结？</span></a></p>
 		]]></description>
		
		
		
		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">3746</post-id>	</item>
	</channel>
</rss>