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	<description>战略前瞻与早期预警 ･ 政治与地缘政治风险 · 情景分析</description>
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		<title>如何分析未来的安全威胁（4）。情景与战争</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Nov 2019 12:00:34 +0000</pubDate>
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		<category><![CDATA[Methodology of Scenario building]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle-East and North Africa]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[logic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[probabilities]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
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		<guid ispermalink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[这篇文章主要讨论战争的情景。它首先解释了为什么情景需要相互排斥。然后，它提供了构建处理战争的情景的逻辑模板。最后，它提供了一个最新的关于叙利亚的情景的书目。迈向分析未来安全威胁和政治风险的操作方法 (1) 分析方法... <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"如何分析未来的安全威胁（4）：情景与战争"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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