乌克兰冲突的影响--地缘政治、不确定性和商业(3)。

With this article and the next one, we use the instability and conflict in Ukraine and the related impacts on businesses to continue enhancing our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world could usefully anticipate or foresee geopolitical and political risks and uncertainties. The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 1st December 2022 Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6) An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia War in Ukraine in the Warming Arctic – Anthropocene Wars (5) The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension The American National Interest We review two major impacts of the war in Ukraine. First we look at the “surprising” …

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俄罗斯的北极、能源和大规模的权力转移

A major world power shift is happening in the Arctic. It is due to new massive oil and gas discoveries, combined with the effects of climate change. In effect, on 28 September 2014, Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft, the Russian mammoth oil company, announced the discovery of a giant oil field in the Kara Sea, north of Siberia (Zero Hedge, “Russia discovers massive Arctic oil field which maybe larger than the Gulf of Mexico“, 28 September, 2014). According to the first commentaries, this sub-sea structure called Universitetskaya, potentially, could contain reserves of oil and gas equal or superior to the Gulf of Mexico. As Igor Sechin declared, quoted by Bloomberg (Arkhipov, Chierman and Chilcote, “Russia says Arctic well drilled with Exxon Mobil …

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孤立的俄罗斯?再想想吧!

自2014年3月,俄罗斯 "向克里米亚派遣军队",以及克里米亚有争议的公投,然后将其纳入俄罗斯联邦以来,"西方 "*的言论是,俄罗斯被孤立了,美国及其盟友将努力进一步孤立它(例如,Zeke J Miller,"奥巴马。美国正在努力 "孤立俄罗斯",时代周刊,2014年3月3日)。由于乌克兰东部的战争似乎主要是通过 "克里米亚视角 "来看待的,这种西方政策,加上一轮又一轮的制裁,旨在看到一个日益孤立的俄罗斯联邦屈服于 "西方 "对国际秩序的看法。不久前,前北约秘书长拉斯穆森在爱沙尼亚电视台发表声明,称 "俄罗斯因其在乌克兰的行动而被全球孤立",这只是类似评论中的一个例子。

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