(特别是第190-200页) Considering uncertainty, but also our imperfect condition of human beings, the complexity of the social world, feedbacks, our more than insufficient knowledge and understanding, we must ….
They are used as a catchphrase to mean two different things. First, as was the case in the Brookings interesting interactive “briefing book” 大赌注和黑天鹅。奥巴马总统第二任期的外交政策挑战, “black swans” represent high impact, low probability events, what is also known as wild cards.[i]
Second, “black swans” refer to events that could absolutely not be predicted, as, for example for the Economist in ”预测游戏。我们在去年的比赛中的赢家和输家”. Unfortunately, in this case, the label “black swans” excuses foresight errors. It tends to stop explanations and evaluation. Similarly, some will make statements along the line of “oh, but there is no point to do any foresight (or futures work or forecast), did you not read Taleb’s Black Swan? One cannot predict or foresee anything.”