Tempobs - 伊朗、沙特阿拉伯和 "未来的阴影"

As the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia has recently risen to new heights (e.g. Paul Iddon, “Was Saudi Arabia’s execution of Sheikh Nimr calculated or reckless?“, Rudaw, 8 Jan 2016; Jon Schwarz, “One Map That Explains the Dangerous Saudi-Iranian Conflict“, The Intercept, 6 Jan 2016), and has regional if not global repercussions, the focus question of our project, i.e. “Within which timeframe could we see full cooperation or, on the contrary, war occur between Saudi Arabia and Iran?” is even more relevant. Warren, with the previous article, started addressing the “stances” of Iran and Saudi Arabia towards each other. Here we shall continue mapping out the two possible future outcomes and the two countries’ relations, i.e. war at one end of the spectrum and cooperation at the …

这篇文章的其余部分是为我们 成员 以及那些购买了特殊访问计划的人。确保你得到真正的分析,而不是意见,或者更糟的是,假新闻。 登录 并访问这篇文章。

Tempobs – State(s) of Mutual Hostility: Saudi Arabia and Iran

Let’s get started on mapping the Iran-Saudi relationship. To recapitulate our method, we shall build upon the intuitive model introduced in the previous two posts (“Mindfully Mapping a Middle Eastern Morass – Saudi Arabia and Iran” & “Mapping an Interactive Network for Iran and Saudi Arabia Relations“) that conceptualizes the two countries’ behaviors as outcomes of the interplay of various influencing forces (e.g. political, economic, security-focused) at the domestic, bilateral, regional, and international levels. Drawing upon analytic commentary and event reporting in the news and academic media, we will identify the most significant forces relevant to our focal question—movement toward war or cooperation—and the direction in which these forces are driving behavior. The map will serve as a framework for …

这篇文章的其余部分是为我们 成员 以及那些购买了特殊访问计划的人。确保你得到真正的分析,而不是意见,或者更糟的是,假新闻。 登录 并访问这篇文章。

Tempobs - 绘制伊朗和沙特阿拉伯关系的互动网络图

This post is the fourth of our temporal observatory project (Tempobs) and related series focused on the future of the relationships between Saudi Arabia and Iran and aiming at improving the handling of time-related issues in strategic foresight and warning, risk, or more broadly anticipatory analysis. It answers and builds upon Dr Warren Fishbein’s (hereinafter Warren) previous article (Mindfully Mapping a Middle Eastern Morass – Saudi Arabia and Iran), as we designed the series as a dialogue where we progressively build the understanding related to the foresight issue by mapping the corresponding conceptual network, continuously scan the relevant literature and news, which will allow us, finally, to assess the future, to use Warren’s apt presentation of the work involved. Here we shall present the new tool (best on desktops …

这篇文章的其余部分是为我们 成员 以及那些购买了特殊访问计划的人。确保你得到真正的分析,而不是意见,或者更糟的是,假新闻。 登录 并访问这篇文章。

安全和可持续性:埃及的未来?

2014年1月批准的阿拉伯埃及共和国新宪法在四个条款中规定了国家和公民对苏伊士运河、环境和自然资源以及尼罗河的权利和义务。这些条款在当前的国内安全形势下具有政治和战略意义,主要是军方、穆斯林兄弟会之间的紧张关系加剧,以及灾难性的经济形势,而埃及和尼罗河沿岸国家的环境和国际背景又加剧了这种情况。为了理解埃及今天和未来二十年的政治和战略形势,我们必须考虑其当前国家可持续发展危机的背景(Valantin,埃及,气候变化和长期资源......

这篇文章的其余部分是为我们 成员 以及那些购买了特殊访问计划的人。确保你得到真正的分析,而不是意见,或者更糟的是,假新闻。 登录 并访问这篇文章。

红色(小组)分析周报--2014年2月13日--暴风雨和洪水,预示着多方面的变化

社论 - 风暴和洪水,预示着多方面的变化。当美国经历了一个非常寒冷的冬天时,西欧却遭遇了自2013年12月17日以来的第九次风暴,每次都带来了破坏和洪水。这首先以一种新颖的方式表明,所谓的 "富裕和发达 "国家可以无情地受到很可能是气候变化的后果的打击。这里我们面对的是风暴和相关的洪水,但其他类型的极端天气事件也可能发生。其次,这些风暴开始让我们了解到这种脆弱性很可能会产生多方面的巨大影响。事实上,这个问题远不是全新的。我们已经强调过,很有可能看到...

这篇文章的其余部分是为我们 成员 以及那些购买了特殊访问计划的人。确保你得到真正的分析,而不是意见,或者更糟的是,假新闻。 登录 并访问这篇文章。

ZH