正如 "战略预见和风险管理中的时间 "所强调的和 "Everstate的特点 "所指出的，战略预见和警告中的时间是一个关键问题。在获得详细的、适当的和可操作的时间表之前，我们仍然需要大量的努力和研究--这甚至没有考虑及时性。对于Everstate的编年史，我们......
标签存档：时间
战略预见和风险管理中的时间
从企业界到政府，我们寻求逃避不确定性和意外。这对生存和发展至关重要。这也是保护我们免受威胁、危险和风险的需要。作为一个整体，一般来说，我们识别威胁的能力--如果不是愿意的话--已经随着经验和实践而提高。值得注意的是，我们变得相对高效，在...
动态风险和不确定因素的建模 (1) : 绘制风险和不确定因素图
(本文是2011年11月以 "创建预见和预警模型 "为题发表的原始文章的全面更新版。绘制动态网络图（一）》）。绘制风险和不确定性是正确预测和管理风险和不确定性的正确过程的第二步。 这个阶段从建立一个模型开始，一旦完成，它将描述和解释手头的问题或议题，同时允许预测或预知。换句话说，随着第一步的结束，你已经选择了一个风险，一个不确定因素，或一系列的风险和不确定因素，或一个值得关注的问题，并有其适当的时间框架和范围，例如，什么是风险和不确定因素，以...
继续阅读“Modeling for Dynamic Risks and Uncertainties (1) : Mapping Risk and Uncertainty”。
Tempobs - 伊朗、沙特阿拉伯和 "未来的阴影"
As the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia has recently risen to new heights (e.g. Paul Iddon, “Was Saudi Arabia’s execution of Sheikh Nimr calculated or reckless?“, Rudaw, 8 Jan 2016; Jon Schwarz, “One Map That Explains the Dangerous Saudi-Iranian Conflict“, The Intercept, 6 Jan 2016), and has regional if not global repercussions, the focus question of our project, i.e. “Within which timeframe could we see full cooperation or, on the contrary, war occur between Saudi Arabia and Iran?” is even more relevant. Warren, with the previous article, started addressing the “stances” of Iran and Saudi Arabia towards each other. Here we shall continue mapping out the two possible future outcomes and the two countries’ relations, i.e. war at one end of the spectrum and cooperation at the …
继续阅读“Tempobs – Iran, Saudi Arabia and the “Shadow of the Future””。
Tempobs - 沙特阿拉伯和伊朗，走向战争还是合作？
Considering the beginning of Russian airstrikes in Syria, and, notably, the increased risk to see it perceived as fanning an already difficult situation in terms of sectarian, Shi’a versus Sunni, tension (Helene Lavoix, “Russia at War with the Islamic State in Syria – Perceptions of Strikes“, RTAS, 12 Oct 2015), understanding and foreseeing the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has become crucially important. Indeed, it could very well be that, fundamentally, without appeasing completely this sectarian tension it will be impossible to end the war spreading in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. It is within this framework that is now located our new project to enhance strategic foresight and warning, risk, or more broadly anticipatory analysis’ handling of time-related issues. As explained previously, we …
继续阅读“Tempobs – Saudi Arabia and Iran, towards War or Cooperation?”。
