了解叙利亚的战争--2013年至2017年

In the light of the sometimes relatively long updates being necessary to keep the series on Syria up to date, the whole section on Syria has been reorganized and a starting page for the series introduced. Updates up to October 2013 are being added in the meantime.

叙利亚战争:新阶段的开始

这篇(长)文章结束了目前关于叙利亚战争的系列更新。它侧重于全国联盟和最高军事委员会内部的演变,日内瓦会议的预期失败以及叙利亚战争新阶段的开始。这将使我们接下来能够最终转向对我们的设想和指标进行评估。全国联盟和最高军事委员会 秋季出现的最后一个联盟是2013年12月9日成立的叙利亚革命者阵线(SRF)(见Youtube视频),它由温和派或无意识形态动机的团体组成,正如伦德(2013年12月13日)所详述的那样,其地图如下(点击图片查看大图)。它是对萨拉菲-民族主义的一种反应。

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分析未来安全威胁的方法(2):一盘棋

This article is the second of a series looking for a methodology that would fulfill the challenging criteria demanded by our time. Previously, we saw that a single “story” initially told at a general level, the political dynamics that are at the core of a polity, could be used to build the very specific model needed to answer a strategic foresight and warning (national security) question or a political risk interrogation. Very practically, how shall we do that? How are generic dynamics going to help us with our task? How can we proceed? This is what we shall see now. Related Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats (2): a …

这篇文章的其余部分是为我们 成员 以及那些购买了特殊访问计划的人。确保你得到真正的分析,而不是意见,或者更糟的是,假新闻。 登录 并访问这篇文章。

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