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传染的动力和COVID-19的第二波行情

This article, using scientific knowledge, looks at the COVID-19 dynamics of contagion to identify ideal measures that should be taken to stop contagion. These ideal measures, then, compared with real policies will allow assessing the potential for a second wave. Our aim, for this series, is to find ways to improve how we foresee if, …

COVID-19和粮食不安全预警

This brief article is a first early warning about food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The danger is rising and deserves further and more in-depth analysis and monitoring. As the COVID-19 pandemic developed, we immediately added food insecurity on our watch list of issues to monitor (see our COVID-19 section). To date, mid-May 2020, …

COVID-19抗病毒治疗方法和方案

世界现在正努力知道如何面对COVID-19大流行病。我们想知道这种大流行病会持续多久。实际上,我们想知道的是大流行病何时结束,生活何时能够恢复正常。正如我们在本系列文章的开篇所解释的那样,要...

COVID-19大流行,生存与重建

The COVID-19 pandemic is now a global fact. It still involves many uncertainties. At present and in the near future, we need to handle the ongoing pandemic as a global catastrophic crisis with complex cascading impacts. We also need to start thinking about reconstruction. We are here concerned with reconstruction that will allow polities to …

地平线扫描和早期预警的监测。定义和实践.

(Rewritten and revised edition) Horizon scanning and monitoring for warning are part of the family of activities used to foresee the future, anticipate uncertainty and manage risks. Their practice is crucial for successful strategic foresight and warning, risk management, futurism or any anticipatory activity. While monitoring is a generic and common term used for many …

红色(团队)分析周报--2018年8月30日--疲软的信号是否仍然相关?

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors. Editorial: Increasingly one may wonder about the relevance of the idea of ‘weak signals” in our world: if you take our featured piece (the reality of the MIT/Club of Rome 1973 foresight …

英国脱欧的经验教训--地缘政治、不确定性和商业 (2)

On 24 June 2016 morning, the U.K. announced the results of the referendum on the Brexit: 51.9% of the population voted to leave the EU against 48.1% wanting to remain, while the turnout reached 72,2% (BBC Referendum Results). This vote triggered among the media, financial and European political elite a “shock”, consternation, and a host of predictions of impending doom, while markets plunged worldwide (BBC News, “Brexit: What the world’s papers say“, 24 June 2016). It also set off a series of events and dynamics still unfolding nowadays with far-ranging consequences, globally, for the future. We shall use this real life case to further enhance our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world relate to and especially anticipate or …

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气候变化,是停顿还是爆发?

On 4 June 2015, Science magazine published “Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus,” which addressed what some see as an apparent pause in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998. In the paper, Thomas R. Karl and others presented updated global surface temperature analysis, which they think reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC and does not support the notion of a “slowdown” or a pause in the increase of global surface temperature. For those who firmly believe there is a pause or even a downward trend, that paper released the Kraken. Whatts Up With That?, a website dedicated to climate change skepticism, called the new paper “laughable”.  Dr …

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监测对伊斯兰国还是对恐怖组织的战争?

叙利亚的战争在其预期的区域化之后,现在已经完全国际化了,这主要是由于伊拉克在2003年美国领导的伊拉克战争中被摧毁后,未能稳定其国家而得到的青睐。这两场最初互不相干的战争已经演变成一场针对叙利亚战场上的战斗角色之一--伊斯兰国的战争,该组织最初诞生于伊拉克。

红队分析第149周--战争与弱小信号

社论--战争和微弱的信号--在对《周刊》的原始信息进行进展和编辑时,最初,社论似乎明显应该关注奥巴马对亚洲的访问、TPP,尤其是美国总统在《读卖新闻》中关于有争议的钓鱼岛/尖阁群岛的断言。"美国的政策是明确的--尖阁群岛由日本管理,因此属于《美日相互合作与安全条约》第五条的范围。而且我们反对任何破坏日本对这些岛屿管理的单方面企图"。中国新闻网对美国这一声明的包容反应,作为一种让美国置身于争端之外的意愿,也应被强调......

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