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了解叙利亚的战争--2013年至2017年

鉴于有时需要较长的更新来保持叙利亚系列的最新情况,整个叙利亚部分已经被重新组织,并为该系列引入了一个起始页。在此期间,正在添加截至2013年10月的更新。

伊朗地区角色的未来--历史背景介绍

对于这个专注于伊朗未来的战略远见和警告系列,特别是作为一个区域参与者,在未来三到五年内,我们将开始分析伊朗的历史和政治机构,然后我们将调查伊朗与主要区域和全球大国的关系。

信号。耶路撒冷 - 美国在联合国被打败,中国寻求优势?

Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered; Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered. Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians Increased likelihood to see global perception of a …

信号。美国总统特朗普关于耶路撒冷的声明

On 6 December 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and, as a result will move its embassy there (see sources below), while also reasserting commitment to the peace process and specifying that the U.S. would support a two-state solution, if approved by both the Israelis …

信号。在索契举行的由俄罗斯支持的大会为叙利亚的未来和平服务?

Impacts and Consequences If Russia succeeds in gathering major actors in a congress in Sochi, which we estimate as likely (55% to 70%) Increased likelihood to see, at the end of the process, a constructive peace settling in SyriaIncreased likelihood to see the birth of a Federal SyriaIncreased likelihood to see the survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern SyriaIncreased likelihood to see a serious lowering of tensions in the Middle East and even some kind of stabilisationIncreased Russian influence (Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals) Facts and analysis As stated by Russian President Putin, the overarching goal is now, for Syria, “the political settlement process, with the finalization of …

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Signal: Russia’s Putin Hosts Syria’s Assad for Working Meeting on Future Syria at Peace

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (near future critical uncertainty)? Finding a compromise on Hezbollah and Iran presence or withdrawal from a future peaceful Syria (near future critical uncertainty) ? Are the root causes that allowed the Islamic State to rise in the region addressed (medium to longer term critical uncertainty)? ➚ ➄ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria➚ Creation of a Federal Syria➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria➘ ➃ to ➂ Middle East Tension ➚ ➃ Turkey’s perception of threat➙ Threat to Israel ➚➚ ➃ Russia influence➙ ➃ U.S. influence trial – likely leading to ➙➘ U.S. influence➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions ?  Global spread “under cover” of Jihadism➚ ?  Strengthening of al-Qaeda➙ ? Resilience of Islamic …

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信号。中国进入中东战场;以色列前所未有的采访;沙特阿拉伯...

A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability. On 16 November, three major diplomatic events centred around Saudi Arabia and Iran’s influence and involving China and Israel took place which impacted this state of play.

Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties) ➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat ➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation ➚  ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon ➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean …

信号。基地组织/伊斯兰国在埃及西部的新战线?

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ➃  Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt ➚ ➃ Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts ➚ ➄ Survival of the Islamic State ➚ ➄ Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya ➚ ➄ Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region ➚ ➄ Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and …

Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➙ ➃  Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region ➘ ➃  U.S. influence in the region➘ Middle East American order (Other issues stable as regard to this signal only – a full assessment would need to consider events in Lebanon and Yemen) On 5 November 2017, the ongoing negotiations between the Iraqi forces …

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