The pattern that has been emerging over at least the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century is a rising polarization within Western society – or societies. In this article, we identified and analysed the trend through the related signal – the 14 November 2012 strikes. We evaluated the evolution toward polarization as likely. We then assessed that we shall likely see more demonstrations and protests in the near future, which will probably expand in terms of participation, geographical scope and content of demands. Dismissal – easily interpreted as despise – absence of satisfying answer and feeling of unfairness will most likely enhance tension, opening the door to violence under various forms.
随后和当前的动态和事件证明我们的估计是正确的。我们认为这一趋势在不久的将来不会结束(2017年10月)。
分析报告
由于各国政府对金融机构和主权债务危机的反应,紧缩政策,自2011年3月以来,抗议活动已经蔓延到整个西方世界。2012年11月14日,欧洲范围内组织了一次罢工,数百万示威者走上街头,各国情况不同。示威活动显示出各国之间的协调性在上升,公民的动员性也在上升。然而,尽管有零星的暴力事件,它仍然主要是和平的。
#14N:数百万人加入欧洲有史以来最大的罢工,Jerome Roos,对革命的反思ROAR: Street battles break out and large parts of Europe are paralyzed as millions of workers walk off their jobs in the biggest coordinated EU…
普遍的示威发生在欧元区还没有被认为是衰退的时候。然而,由于现在经济衰退是正式的,而且预计会持续下去,那么动员的原因仍然存在,让我们期待更多的抗议活动到来。
德国陷入困境,欧元区被视为陷入衰退, Robin Emmot, BRUSSELS, Nov 15 (Reuters): French economy seen stagnating; Germany to grow just 0.2 pct; The euro zone likely slipped in…
然而,如果和平抗议被认为是无用的,特别是被保守派和自由派金融机构认为是无用的,那么很可能要求不会被听到,更糟糕的是,和平示威会被驳回。这可能被看作是对示威的真正回应,实际上是一种强硬的立场。由于经济衰退也可能增加对利润减少的恐惧,那么软化的姿态是不可能的。此外,人们还可以想象,持续的经济衰退加上示威者带来变革的失败努力,将是一个机会,通过打破任何反对派,从而改变20世纪下半叶相关的权力平衡,在短期和中期内实际增加利润--和权力。这也将意味着倾向于采取更严厉的立场。
欧洲大罢工影响不大, Wall Street Journal: General strikes and sporadic violence against government austerity programs racked Spain, Portugal and Greece, but they appeared unlikely…