https://redanalysis.org/zh/2013/01/28/%e6%9c%89%e7%94%a8%e7%9a%84%e8%a7%84%e5%88%99-%e4%bb%8e%e5%a1%94%e5%88%a9%e7%8f%ad%e7%9a%84%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%a9%e9%b9%85%e4%b8%ad%e7%9c%8b%e5%88%b0%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%9c%e6%99%af/
Useful Rules for Strategic Foresight and Risk Management from Taleb’s The Black Swan