对未来的一瞥？ 正如上周所料，埃及事件已经开始影响世界。不仅在阿拉伯世界内部，而且在国际上，影响力也在上升和下降，美国似乎在努力理解这些事件并作出适当的反应，而俄罗斯的外交政策也很坚定。紧张局势也随着西奈半岛的袭击而上升，而叙利亚反对派的新前景很可能正在出现。在国内，塔马罗德的做法不仅触及突尼斯，也触及利比亚。同时，在微博上，土耳其和埃及之间已经开始建立联系，双方都在支持对方国家的对应方。
然而，在埃及，事情似乎远远没有得到解决，就像在世界其他地方一样。如果选择El-Beblawi作为总理意味着国际货币基金组织的补救措施也类似于1980年代的结构性改革或最近对希腊所做的，那么埃及出现进一步起义和动乱的可能性将增加。同时，希腊公民很可能把埃及作为榜样，并根据自己的需要重新解释塔马罗德运动和随后的事件。没完没了的经济危机，加上与气候变化有关的安全问题的增加，也可能使动乱蔓延到更多的国家，因为现在已经找到了与民主价值观相一致的前进道路。同时，宗教方法和运动也可能因为同样的原因而得到加强和激进化。
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发布者：Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Helene Lavoix博士 is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France).
An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia.
She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics.
Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.
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