https://redanalysis.org/zh/2013/12/16/%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e5%ae%89%e5%85%a8%e5%a8%81%e8%83%81%e7%9a%84%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95-3%e7%a7%8d%e6%83%85%e5%86%b5/
How to Analyze Future Security Threats (3): Scenarios as an Organic Living System