社论-- 在远东和全球走向新的战略格局?日本、中国、美国和俄罗斯----。 当许多人都在关注上一轮全球抗议活动,现在是在乌克兰、委内瑞拉和泰国(尽管那里的情况在众包新闻中强调得少得多),或者关注整个中东地区似乎一直在上升的紧张局势时,在远东,紧张局势至少上升了一个档次,日本政府暗示它想重新审视1993年的研究,导致日本在1994年对二战期间的韩国 "慰安妇 "道歉(见 华盛顿邮报》文章).

此外,最值得注意的是,日本似乎也不再犹豫与它的美国盟友一起冒 "寒流 "的风险,用  wording of Martin Fackler’s article in the 纽约时报 (2014年2月19日)正如一位高级立法者强调他对美国的失望(在日本与邻国的争端中没有给予足够有力的支持),或如 “Naoki Hyakuta, who was appointed by the prime minister himself to the governing board of public broadcaster NHK, said in a speech that the Tokyo war tribunal after World War II was a means to cover up the “genocide” of American air raids on Tokyo and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki” (I竞标。).百田直树对这些类型的评论很熟悉(如 大卫-麦克尼尔,《独立报》,2014年2月7日)。

这些声明首先清楚地表明了该地区一直存在的高度和不断上升的紧张局势,因为中国和日本都宣称他们的领土要求,以及日本的民族主义驱动力,决定看到其反战宪法的改变(例如)。 约翰-霍菲莱纳, JDP, 2 January 2014). The economic backdrop of less than satisfactory results makes the situation particularly worrying as war may be seen as a way out of economic problems. What is here new and, at first glance, surprising is that in such a tense situation Japan could wish to risk to alienate the U.S.. As a hypothesis, the new chill may become less surprising if we remember that on 8 February Japanese PM Shinzo Abe met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, and if we recall that “five summits have been held between the two leaders in thirteen months” (路透社,2014年2月8日). The two countries are, true enough, working upon signing the peace treaty that would end their territorial dispute but also share strong interests in trade, notably oil and gaz, which are all the more important to Japan considering Fukushima (e.g. ibid). We may thus wonder if the new “chill” with the U.S. initiated by Japan, is not allowed by the  warm relationships with Russia, as well as a signal of the strength of this relationship. It may also be a Japanese warning to the U.S., considering the importance of Japan in their “Pivot to Asia” strategy that, if the U.S. does not support them more strongly they may very well turn more and further towards Russia. In all cases this is an extremely interesting development, which has the potential to dramatically redraw the strategic configuration not only in the Far East but also globally (economically and geopolitically).

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地平线扫描,中国,日本,俄罗斯,警告,信号,监测

Featured Image:  Photo – the Presidential Press and Information Office of 俄罗斯总统府索契,在与日本首相安倍晋三会晤之前,2014年2月8日

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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