After evaluating scenarios involving failed peace negotiations, we shall conclude scenario 1, exploring paths towards a mediated peace, by evaluating sub-scenario 1.3 in this article – a scenario where peace negotiations, without an external mediator, lead to a signed peace treaty and transitional government. Our focus here will be on the scenario where the actors reach such levels of exhaustion that they are willing to negotiate a peace, as noted by Luttwak (Foreign Affairs, 1999); and in this case, through negotiations involving exclusively Libyan actors, i.e. without external mediators. We shall discuss the scenario where the actors form a unity government and whether or not it makes progress towards stabilization, as well as the scenario where the actors fail to …

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由Jon Mitchell (Ma)发布

他是一名独立的研究人员和作家,在美国自由大学攻读公共政策-国际事务硕士学位。他曾为一个非营利性国际组织撰写政治经济分析报告,为美国国会委员会编撰关于博科圣地的非官方分析报告,并为《外交政策杂志》撰写文章。在哈德逊研究所实习期间,他研究了关键的区域安全问题,并在其政治-军事分析中心分析了复杂的国际挑战。

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