https://redanalysis.org/zh/2017/02/13/%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%80%a7-libyas-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%83%85%e6%99%af-1/
Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya's Future – Scenario 1