https://redanalysis.org/zh/2017/03/06/%e8%af%84%e4%bb%b7%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%80%a7-2-%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95%e5%ad%a6/
Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Methodology