随着叙利亚战场上和该地区事件的加速，本文监测和分析了这些发展。它试图回答这样一个问题：正在发生的事态是增加了土耳其对叙利亚库尔德人和事实上的叙利亚北部的升级的可能性，还是相反，减少了这种可能性？我们将首先看一下叙利亚战场上围绕拉卡战役和代尔祖尔发生的竞赛，那里还涉及到伊朗影响力的新水平。然后，我们将转向围绕卡塔尔不断演变的危机，指出对土耳其的明显影响，以及该危机和拉卡之战如何相互影响，以增加对土耳其的风险。
发布者：Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Helene Lavoix博士 is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow. 查看更多文章
