Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria➚  ? ➃ Iran influence (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)? Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria➚ ? ➄ Syrian future  (high uncertainty)➚ ? ➃ Middle East Tension (high uncertainty) ➘ ➄ The Islamic State direct short term threat in Mesopotamia➘ ➄ Perception of the Islamic State threat➘➙ ➄ Global long term Islamic State threat ➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions On 17 October, The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced that the city of Raqqa had been recaptured from the Islamic State, even though fighting continued in near-by surrounding areas. Considering the strategic and symbolic importance of Raqqa for most …

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由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。