编者注：中国已计划推出衍生品合同或 原油期货合约 在 上海国际能源交易中心 (在过去的两年中，以人民币计价的INE公司。该合同最初应该在2015年底开始，然后，在2016年9月，它又被推迟了一年（亨利-桑德森。 金融时报，2016年9月15日）。 该合同现在将在2017年底前推出(报道，2017年10月25日）。假设这确实最终发生了，我们是否将见证对美元霸主地位的挑战，更何况它与石油有关？什么是可能因此被藐视的石油美元体系？这个 "石油美元体系 "与整个美元霸主地位的关系如何？哪些行为者参与了这一特定的可能变化？中国的角色是什么？这些都是这里涉及的一些问题。
As we investigate the possible futures of the USD supremacy in this series of articles, we 之前 highlighted that some international currency functions have important effects not only on the issuer’s private economic sector but also on its international stance in power terms. These are the store of value function at both the private and the public level and the trade function. In the case of the USD supremacy, the petrodollar system is at the heart of the trade function. We thus here dig deep not only into its role in upholding the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency but also into the challenges that this geo-political-economic arrangement is currently facing.
As we pursue our in-depth analysis of the tests to the US Dollar supremacy so as to foresee the future of the international currency system and the possible resulting political and geopolitical changes, this article, focusing on one of the main pivot of the American currency hegemony, analyses the petrodollar system and the challenges looming over it.
The petrodollar system is at the heart of American power. In a nutshell, the petrodollar system is grounded in the fact that if a country needs oil and oil is priced in dollars, this country has to own dollars or dollar-denominated assets to buy the oil needed. It results from a 1973 agreement between U.S. President Richard Nixon and King Faisal bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia, according to which the U.S. bought Saudi oil in USD in exchange for Saudi American protection and purchase of American military equipment. The overall system allowed the U.S. to finance the mounting American debt, effectively sustaining not only the large current account deficits Washington has run but also its various military foreign operations.
The petrodollar system is facing a series of trials, which are likely to further develop in the near to medium-term future. First, geopolitical “rivals” to the U.S., such as Iran, Venezuela or Russia, promote and sign oil trade agreements denominated in currencies others than the USD. Second, China is likely favouring the rise of the Petroyuan. Two main drivers, notably when operating together, would allow for this dynamics to develop. First, by moving towards energy independency, the U.S. is itself 事实上 buying less oil, which decreases the amount of USD circulating and fragilise the system, unless other countries continue buying their oil in USD. It is the very initial agreement at the start of the petrodollar system that is as stake. Second, and relatedly, China has become the first world importer of oil. It may thus have more leverage with exporting countries, such as Saudi Arabia, to promote the Yuan. Meanwhile, China diversifies its portfolio of suppliers, thus spreading the possible use of its currency when purchasing oil.
The challenges to the petrodollar system are supported by an array of trade agreements not related to oil, and denominated in currencies other than the USD. The actors involved are not only China, Russia and Iran, but also Turkey and Japan.
In conclusion, we highlight that Beijing, Moscow and Teheran are bound together by a deep convergence of interests that could lead to a profound transformation of the global monetary system.
Full article 3723 words – pdf 17 pages
继续阅读。 成为会员 of The Red (Team) Analysis Society, or purchase a pdf version of the article with copyright permissions.
如果你已经是一个会员，请 登录 (不要忘记刷新页面）。
If you or your institution have purchased pdf version(s) of this article you can download your article by clicking on this link or go to your downloads capabilities – please 登录 first.
关于作者: Leonardo Frisani (巴黎大学硕士）目前专注于对美元霸主地位的挑战。除此之外，他的专业是国际安全，他的主要兴趣是地缘政治学、宏观经济学、气候变化、国际能源和历史。
Al Gergawi, M. (2017) “China is Eyeballing a Major Strategic Investment in Saudi Arabia’s Oil”, 26 October 2017. Retrieved: 10 November 2017.
Amadeo, K. (2017) “Petrodollar: System, History, How It Recycles, Will It Collapse?”, 平衡, 30 June 2017. Retrieved: 4 November 2017.
Amadeo, K. (2017), “Iran’s economy: Impact of Nuclear Deal and Sanctions”, The Balance, 26 October 2017. Retrieved: 6 November 2017.
Bellomo, S. (2017) “La Cina prepara la sfida ai petrodollari”, Il Sole 24 Ore, 7 September 2017. Retrieved: 8 November 2017.
Blas, J. (2013) “China becomes world’s oil top importer”, 金融时报, 4 March 2013. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Bryan, B. (2016) “BP: The US will be energy independent in 5 years”, 商业内幕, 24 March 2016. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Cohen, Benjamin J. (2015), Currency Power. Understanding Monetary Rivalry. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
DiSavino, S. (2017) “Oil steadies as Middle East tensions offset rising U.S. output”, 路透社, 8 November 2017. Retrieved: 9 November 2017.
El Gamal, R. and Lawler, A. (2017) “Exclusive: China offers to buy 5 percent of Saudi Aramco directly – sources”, Reuters, 16 October 2017. Retrieved: 11 November 2017.
Frankel, J. (2011), “The rise of the renminbi as international currency: Historical precedents”, Vox, 10 October 2011. Retrieved: 8 November 2017
Meredith, S. (2017), “China will “compel” Saudi Arabia to trade oil in yuan – and that’s going to affect the US dollar”, CNBC。 11 October 2017. Retrieved: 8 November 2017.
Pizzi, M. (2014) “Russia, China sign deal to bypass US dollar”, Al Jazeera America, 20 May 2014. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Puzzanghera, J. (2013) “China calls for dollar to be replaced as global reserve currency”, 洛杉矶时报, 14 October 2013. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Qiang, S. and Xiaokun, L. (2010) “China, Russia quit dollar”, 中国日报, 24 November 2010, Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Qingqing, C. (2017) “Trade relations boom between China, Russia”, The Global Times, 30 October 2017. Retrieved: 12 November 2017.
Reuters Staff (2013) “UPDATE 4-Emerging powers China, Brazil move towards non-dollar trade”, 26 March 2013. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Reuters Staff (2017) “Russia is top China oil supplier fourth straight month in June, longest streak ever”, Reuters, 24 July 2017. Retrieved: 9 November 2017.
Reuters Staff (2017) “Venezuela publishes oil prices in Chinese currency to shun U.S. Dollar”, 路透社。 15 September 2017. Retrieved: 6 November 2017.
Saul, J. and Hafezi, P. (2014) “Iran, Russia working to seal $20 bln oil-for-goods deal – sources”, 路透社, 2 April 2014. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2017, 5 January 2017.
Valantin, J. (2016) “Iran, China and the New Silk Road”, 红色（团队）分析会, 4 January 2016. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Valantin, J. (2016) “China, Russia and the New Silk Road in Central Asia: the great co-empowerment”, 红色（团队）分析会, 7 March 2016. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Wong, A. (2016) “The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s 41-Year U.S. Debt Secret”, 彭博社, 31 May 2016. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.
Wong, E. and Singer, N. (2011) “Currency Agreement for Japan and China”, 纽约时报, 26 December 2011. Retrieved: 14 November 2017.