影响和后果

  • 看到全球对美国的影响和力量的看法降低的可能性增加。
  • 看到全球对地区(中东)美国影响和力量的看法降低的可能性增加。

中国是否应该成功介入,成为以色列和巴勒斯坦之间的和平调解人?

  • 在全球范围内看到中国地区(中东)新影响力的可能性增大
  • 更有可能看到全球对中国全球影响力上升的看法
  • 看到美国和中国之间紧张局势加剧的可能性增加

事实和分析

相关的

正如我们所料 之前, the U.S. decision regarding Jerusalem not only polarised the situation, but also ended up as a test for U.S. power and influence. The testing nature of the situation was reinforced by the Americans threatening to cut American aid to countries, should the latter not side with the U.S. during the U.N. General Assembly vote for a resolution that “’demanded’ that all countries comply with Security Council resolutions regarding the status of Jerusalem, following an earlier decision by the United States to recognize the Holy City as the capital of Israel” (UN News) – a resolution that thus opposed the U.S. decision regarding Jerusalem.

Despite the threat, the “resolution [was] adopted by a recorded vote of 128 in favour to nine against (Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Togo, United States), with 35 abstentions” (UN News). The U.S. thus lost.

因此,美国的权力和影响力似乎可能已经下降。

This was not lost on China, as it held a third symposium, “of Israeli and Palestinian peace advocates” on 21 and 22 December 2017  in Beijing, where  China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi was to “meet with the Palestinian and Israeli attendees” (Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Regular Press Conference on December 21, 2017). The Foreign Ministry’s spokeperson futher added that “We are willing to continue offering constructive assistance to promote the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.” (Ibid.)

同时,在《中国青年报》上关于这一问题的文章内容 环球时报 (国际版为非常正式的 People’s Daily),不仅强调了美国影响力的丧失,而且还强调了中国现在作为以色列和巴勒斯坦之间未来和平谈判的潜在经纪人的理想地位。

因此,中国似乎有可能介入,试图取代美国成为和平调解人。

Should this happen, then China would have extended and asserted its influence, furthermore in a region where it had not been so far a major player – however being increasingly active there – while the U.S. would have, on the contrary, lost not only regional but also global influence.

对问题和不确定性的影响

  美国在中东的影响和力量
美国的全球影响力和实力

➚ 中国在中东的影响和力量
➚ 中国的全球影响力和实力

➚ 美国和中国之间日益紧张的关系

来源和信号

UN News – General Assembly demands all States comply with UN resolutions regarding status of Jerusalem

By an overwhelming majority, Member States in the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday “demanded” that all countries comply with Security Council resolutions regarding the status of Jerusalem.

Brushing Aside Trump’s Threats, U.N. General Assembly Condemns U.S. Decree on Jerusalem

Diplomats brushed aside what appeared to be a hastily organized pressure campaign by the White House, including last-minute threats by President Trump to cut off aid to countries voting for the resolution. “We will not be threatened,” Mr. Malki, one of several diplomats who spoke before the vote, told the General Assembly at an emergency meeting.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Regular Press Conference on December 21, 2017

Palestinian, Israeli delegates meet in Beijing for peace solution – Global Times

The symposium of Israeli and Palestinian peace advocates held in Beijing shows China’s will to promote peaceful solutions to Palestine-Israel issues, but experts say the complexity of Middle East politics leaves limited space for China.

The world pays witness to historic display of US arrogance – Global Times

An emergency UN General Assembly meeting passed a resolution calling for the US to drop its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital as well as its decision to move the US embassy there. A total of 128 countries backed the resolution, nine voted against and 35 abstained.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

发表评论

您的电子邮箱地址不会被公开。

本网站使用Akismet来减少垃圾邮件。了解您的评论数据如何被处理

ZH