信号。中国的行星三维战略,南海的深海资源

对问题和不确定性的影响

➚➚ 安全和资源领域的不确定性对所有行为者,包括国家和公司都是如此,这涉及到对影响力地图、所需能力以及相关的战略和政策的完全重划。

 China’s influence
 中国上升到顶级大国地位
中国的资源不安全

与菲律宾、印度尼西亚和越南在中国南海的紧张关系

Escalating Tension U.S. – China on the South China Sea
紧张局势升级的美中关系

事实和分析

(见下文第三部分的来源和参考资料)

相关的

极端环境安全

深海资源的标志物简介

深海资源示意图

中国和新丝绸之路。从油井到月球......及其他

In April and May 2018, China has carried out successful deep-sea missions which indicate China’s willingness to develop its influence and use also to this extreme environment, among the four we monitor: the extremely cold in the North – the Arctic – and in the South – Antarctica, space, and the deep-sea. As a result, China shows a resolve to implement a truly planetary strategy not only located at the surface of the planet, somehow conceptualising the world in two dimensions, as with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but also considering height and depth, thus in 3 dimensions, with space on the one hand, the deep-sea on the other.

Between 4 April and 16 May 2018, China endeavoured a month-long deep-sea exploration in the South China Sea, using a Canadian unmanned submarine, more precisely a Remotely Operated Platform for Ocean Science (ROPOS). Not only could the expedition transfer data in real-time and allow scientists and students to discover in real-time the new world of the deep-sea, but also it identified the location and nature of precious future resources. The exploration thus found: “the biggest ferromanganese nodules”,  which notably “contain nickel, chromium and manganese, minerals that are indispensable for military equipment, such as submarines, tanks and aerospace facilities,” as pointed out by a Chinese advisor to the Hainan Provincial Maritime Environment Protection Association. It also found “two ancient hydrothermal vents on the seafloor”, which fluids “provide[s] clues to the form of metals”.

同时,中国也在为深海开发自己的载人和无人潜水器,同时开发和测试互操作性和通信。

For example, from 28 to 30 April 2018, “The manned deep-sea submersible Shenhai Yongshi, or Deep Sea Warrior, and unmanned submersible Haima, or Sea Horse, completed three joint deep-sea operations in the Haima cold springs in the South China Sea”. Here the resources targeted were natural gas hydrate, which could contribute to replace in the future oil and gas.  Estimates give 2020 as target date for first small-scale output and 2030 for large-scale commercial exploitation (The Independent).

Real exploitation of this deep-sea resource has already started in China, as, in 2017 the country is reported to have “extracted more than 300,000 cubic meters of combustible ice, a type of natural gas hydrate (People’s Daily)”.

考虑到目前已确定的天然气水合物主要来源的位置,中国同时也呼吁与争议地区的国家,即菲律宾、印度尼西亚和越南合作。我们可以估计,中国可能会在这里制定一个类似于 "金砖 "的战略和相关政策。

As another example, on 23 April, “China’s self-developed 4,500-meter-level unmanned submersible Qianglong 3” (diving dragon) “conducted its first dive in the South China Sea”. The Qianglong series is “developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Shenyang Institute of Automation”. Among a host of improvements compared with previous versions, it is also meant to be much more silent, which could have direct consequences in terms of military espionage and submarine warfare.

最后,据报道,中国计划在三亚建立一个新的基地,用于在南中国海部署载人和无人潜水器,该基地应在2019年完成。

If China is seen as having to catch up in terms of submarine warfare according to Jane’s Defence/IHS Markit (Sputnik), it is making much effort in this direction. Meanwhile, to evaluate China’s efforts in terms of manned and unmanned submarines only according to warfare could be a dangerous approach, as all silo-based understanding. It could indeed neglect diplomatic impacts and  influence’s impacts, consequences in terms of resources security and, ironically, capability to develop next generation  of weapon systems, if necessary components are seabed resources dependent.

信号和来源

Scientists find materials in S.China Sea needed in military, aerospace equipment – Global Times

观察家们说,为期一个月的南海深海勘探周三结束,发现了多金属结核和古代热液,这将有助于开发金属资源,并将提供制造军事和航空航天设备所需的材料。

Chinese researchers to live-stream in S.China Sea – Global Times

大约22名中国科学家周二开始了为期一个月的南中国海深海探测直播。

China’s submersibles complete first joint deep-sea research in South China Sea – Global Times

China’s two deep-sea submersibles have completed their first joint scientific research in the South China Sea, paving the way for future natural gas hydrate explorations in the region, an analyst said Wednesday.

中国刚刚首次开采了一种新型化石燃料,其影响可能是毁灭性的

Commercial development of the globe’s huge reserves of a frozen fossil fuel known as “combustible ice” has moved closer to reality after Japan and China successfully extracted the material from the seafloor off their coastlines. But experts said Friday that large-scale production remains many years away – and if not done properly could flood the atmosphere with climate-changing greenhouse gases.

China’s Unmanned Submersible Qianlong 3 to Conduct First Dive—Chinese Academy of Sciences

中国计划在南中国海建立基地以发射深潜无人机

Just after the likely next head of US Pacific Command told Congress China’s undersea warfare capability is one of the most pressing threats to the US, a new report says Beijing is establishing another base in the South China Sea for deploying manned and unmanned submersible vehicles.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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