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随着我们进入 "第四次工业革命"、数字转型时代、一个新出现的 "人工智能世界 "和 "第二次量子革命",国家和国际安全必须适应。它必须通过预测这个未来的世界来做到这一点,避免与新的--但也是旧的--威胁和危险有关的意外,同时抓住不亚于范式变化所提供的巨大机会(对于标签,分别为克劳斯-施瓦布。 世界经济论坛, Helene Lavoix, 未来的人工智能 - Powered World系列, 红色(团队)分析会, Jonathan P. Dowling, Gerard J. Milburn, "Quantum Technology:第二次量子革命",2002年6月13日。 arXiv:quant-ph/0206091v1).

与网络空间和网络安全有关的战略因国家和行为者而异。它是由不同类型的机构以不同方式处理的。在简要介绍了法国、英国和美国在网络安全方面的主要国家行为者之后,我们将重点介绍法国的前景,并介绍ANSSI、其目标和最后的新的外联倡议,Agora 41。

France, the UK and the U.S. – a brief overview

In France, the Agence Nationale de la Sécurité des Systèmes d’Information (ANSSI) – National Agency for Cyber Security, created on 7 July 2009,  deals with the security of the cyber world. It is the national authority for all matters related to the defence and security of information systems and, as a result, leads the 法国国家数字安全战略 (2015). Nonetheless, other cyber dimensions remain under other types of state authorities, notably the ministry of Interior and the ministry of Defence, which plans a €1.6 billion budget for 2019-2025 for cyber security, while its cyber defence command, created in 2016, will see an increase in personal (Benjamin Hue, “法国将加强其打击网络犯罪的武器库", RTL同上,2018年1月24日)。有必要制定一项为期五年的新的国家网络战略,并有明确的总体预算,而且可能即将出台(同上)。

ANSSI或多或少相当于最近的英国国家网络安全中心(NCSC),是GCHQ的一部分,于2016年10月开放,2017年2月14日正式启动,全面参与到 2017年CyberUK战略 (启动国家安全委员会。 视频文件;路透社,"英国将花费19亿英镑加强网络防御系统“). The overall UK budget for cybersecurity across all ministries (but not including potential budget for cyber-retaliations and attacks) reaches £1.9 billion for 2017-2022 (“Chancellor’s speech at the National Cyber Security Centre opening“, 14 February 2017; 路透社,同上)。

Both the ANSSI and the NCSC are heir to the past cryptographic mission of states’ institutions. The ANSSI is the latest child of the Direction Technique des Chiffres (DTC) created in 1943 in Alger (ANSSI历史). For its part, the NCSC, through the GCHQ, is indeed grounded  in the most famous 布莱切利公园这主要归功于图灵、破译密码的团队和 炸弹机 they created, defeated the German Enigma Machine and thus contributed to the Allies victory during World War 2 . Before that, its ancestry can be traced to the codebreaking efforts at the Admiralty and War Office during World War 1 (e.g. GCHQ, “The story of Signals Intelligence 1914-2014″).

Cybersecurity in the U.S. benefits from a $15 billion federal budget for FY 2019 dwarfing European efforts, but to share among all agencies with a cyber element, from the NASA to the Small Business Administration (John Slye, “2019年财政预算案将网络安全资金增加了近$6亿", 德尔泰, 2018年2月28日)。

U.S. Federal Cybersecurity Funding FY 2017-2019 by John Slye, “2019年财政预算案将网络安全资金增加了近$6亿", 德尔泰, 2018年2月28日

Nonetheless, and despite the famous National Security Agency/Central Security Service (NSA/CSS), no new agency nor overarching centre handles the new cyber world and its security in the leading way developed in both France and the UK (David H. Petraeus, “成立国家网络安全局的理由", 贝尔弗中心, 5 September 2018).  The 网络安全和通信办公室 的。 国家保护和计划局(NPPD)  在国土安全部(DHS)内设立的办公室可以被看作是接近英国和法国做法的一种努力。然而,作为一个办公室,它没有欧洲那样的自主权、影响力和领导力。此外,由于它的位置和所涉及的其他机构的数量,OCC/NPPD很可能不得不把时间、资源和精力用于行政上的争吵和争执。

That said, the American cybersecurity budget remains very large indeed. Meanwhile, the U.S. benefits of a “cyber ecosystem”, which is a formidable assets. This ecosystem is created by the Federal cyber budget and the benefiting agencies and offices, the GAFA – and other companies such as Intel, NVIDIA and IBM to quote only a few – the Silicon Valley, patriot and concerned billionaires and world-class universities, as shown by the $ 1 billion MIT initiative “to address the global opportunities and challenges presented by the prevalence of computing and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI),” including a $350 million gift by Stephen A. Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone (麻省理工学院评论, "麻省理工学院重塑自身以塑造未来").

If Eisenhower pointed out the importance of the military–industrial complex to understand American national security (军事-工业综合体演讲, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961), it could well be that we now must also count with a similar but larger and deeper cyber-IT-whole of government complex.  The about to be born “Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) program for the Department of Defense could only reinforce this trend (Helene Lavoix, “人工智能、计算能力和地缘政治 (2)", 红色(团队)分析会, 25 June 2018; Shaun Nichols, “美国JEDI军事云计算网络是如此的高科技,投标人将不得不用手写的DVD来提交他们的建议", 登记册,2018年9月27日)。

For its part, NATO is working upon getting a new cyber military command center, which should be ready for 2023 (Robin Emmott, “北约网络司令部将于2023年全面运作", 路透社, 2018年10月16日)。

如果我们想提供一个更好的全球图景,一个完整和更详细的展望将明显需要包括中国。

ANSSI,从战略到预想和推广

作为法国网络安全战略的领导者,ANSSI旨在实现五个主要目标(网站):

  1. 捍卫国家在网络空间的根本利益。
  2. 促进超空间的使用并保护公民,对任何类型的网络犯罪作出强有力的反应。
  3. Raising digital security awareness.
  4. 将数字安全转化为法国经济主体的竞争优势。
  5. Strengthening international influence [shaping norms, promoting cyber global stability, promoting European autonomy – my summary].

Furthermore, the ANSSI must have a strong strategic foresight and anticipatory activity across all timeframes to be able to provide for the security of the new emerging world, while also dealing with the very concrete threats and risks of the present. Indeed, for example, among many other impacts, quantum computing will completely unsettle the safe transmission of data, while cities and companies abundantly using artificial intelligence in its deep learning component will need to be secured. Quantum communication work, for example, at creating quantum networks, upon which could be built in the future a quantum internet (Edd Gent, “从量子计算到量子互联网--路线图", 奇点网, 22 October 2018). Quantum computing, or more largely quantum technologies, and AI, both accelerating and disrupting each other, as we saw (“The Coming Quantum Computing Disruption, Artificial Intelligence and Geopolitics (1)”, 15 October 2018), will create completely new cyber challenges that need to be envisioned and for which states’ agencies, companies, and citizens must be prepared.

下面的视频,特别是在一起看的时候,可能会帮助我们想象未来和它的安全会是什么样子(预告片中的 利益相关者 J.J. Abrahams的第四季;英伟达GTC中国2017年主题演讲回顾,特别是关于智慧城市的部分)。

同时,气候变化的不利的多维影响蔓延和加剧,对网络安全的后果也必须加以考虑。

正如塞纳特所强调的那样。

“One of the axis selected in the strategy of the ANSSI for the 2016-2020 period, “knowledge and anticipation” 宗旨是强化能力 开展展望工作,预测新的威胁,支持新技术或新用途的出现。 which could have an impact in terms of cyber security”  (“Projet de loi de finances pour 2018 : Direction de l’action du Gouvernement : Coordination du travail gouvernemental“,  23 Novembre 2017)

在这个框架内,国家统计局启动了一个原创性的推广计划--Agora 41,在这个计划中,41名专家被选中并被邀请参加一个新的实验,即跳出框框,跨学科思考,以支持该机构完成其使命。

我们选择了五个主题,以服务于网络战略及其目标的实现,同时服从于战略远见的需要。

  1. 对网络世界及其安全的想象
  2. 进入GAFA和BATX。新板块上的新游戏的新规则?
  3. Winning the Talents’ War
  4. 网络共居
  5. 促进安全的胜利的网络生态系统

Agora 41的每个成员选择一个核心主题,同时也有可能就其他问题进行互动。这个系统的目的是允许更多富有成效的讨论和最大限度地反馈各个问题。

这些有利的努力不仅可以帮助塑造未来的网络安全,还可以帮助塑造我们的网络未来。


* It is near impossible from outside to precisely evaluate the ANSSI’s budget considering its “limited budgetary autonomy” within the Prime Minister’s Secrétariat général de la défense et de la sécurité nationale – SGDSN (“Projet de loi de finances pour 2018 : Direction de l’action du Gouvernement : Coordination du travail gouvernemental“,  23 Novembre 2017). As pointed out by the Sénat (Solutions Numériques, “ANSSI : un rapport sénatorial préconise d’élargir son autonomie de gestion budgétaire”, 19 April 2018), this partial  autonomy may only contribute to obscure vital needs and hinder the ANSSI’s efficiency by denying vital resources, all the more so when its missions are and will be enlarged considering the foreseeable future. Meanwhile the risk of administrative quarrels and hassle is enhanced.

免责声明: The author is part of the Agora 41 effort, but remains independent in her thinking, a sine qua non condition for the success of the ANSSI’s outreach initiative. The views expressed in this report represent the views and interpretations of the author, unless otherwise stated. This article does not imply policy, program or regulatory endorsement by the ANSSI.

特色图片: The Argonne-led “多尺度耦合的城市系统” project aims to help city planners better examine complex systems, understand the relationships between them and predict how changes will affect them. The ultimate goal is to help officials identify the best solutions to benefit urban communities. (Image by Argonne National Laboratory.)

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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