预见未来，无论 名称 给予的努力，包括两个主要任务。
当然，第一个是 分析意思是说，获得预知、预测、警告或更广泛的预测的过程。
第二个问题不那么明显，或者说太明显了，以至于可能被忽略了。然而，它的重要性并不亚于分析。我们需要 交付 将分析过程的结果传递给那些需要预见性的人，即决策者或政策制定者。理想的情况是，接受者必须理解这一产出，因为他们将根据这一产出采取行动。他们需要将收到的新知识融入到他们将要做出的决定中。
一个巨大的挑战贯穿这些任务：偏见。
我们必须克服各种自然和构造的偏见--系统的心理错误--限制了人类的理解。本文将首先介绍我们处理偏见的经典方式：我们把它们--非常正确地--视为 "敌人"，并投入大量精力来减轻它们。然后，考虑到交付阶段的特殊性，本文认为另一种策略是必要的。我们需要颠覆我们通常的策略，与偏见交朋友。在这种情况下，情景模拟成为一种选择工具，以加强向决策者传递我们的预见性[...] 。
这篇文章的其余部分是为我们 成员 以及那些购买了特殊访问计划的人。确保你得到真正的分析，而不是意见，或者更糟的是，假新闻。 登录 并访问这篇文章。
发布者：Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Helene Lavoix博士 is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France).
An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia.
She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics.
Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.
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