<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"? "如何分析未来的安全威胁（4）：情景与战争》的评论 https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/ 战略前瞻与早期预警 ･ 政治与地缘政治风险 · 情景分析 Mon, 04 Oct 2021 15:23:09 +0000 每小时 1 评论者：Dr Helene Lavoix https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/#comment-1319 Tue, 31 Dec 2013 08:31:21 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716#comment-1319 回复给 Jerry Zellars。

Thank you very much Jerry! It seems that Taylor’s work is very appreciated :-). I am glad you find it useful.
All the best and A happy New Year to you too!

]]> 评论者：Dr Helene Lavoix https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/#comment-1318 Tue, 31 Dec 2013 08:28:23 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716#comment-1318 回复给 Jim Molan。

Hi Jim,
In the first post of the series https://redanalysis.org/2013/11/18/operational-methodology-security-threats/ I indeed explain why I am revisiting the methodology. Those scenarios are meant to uncover possible futures for specific issues. Thus you should be able – if i understand you well – to use the methodology to develop scenarios that will then be “used against” different force structures. This should give you weak and strong points. By force structure do you mean military? If yes, then it seems to me that the key point, before to elaborate the scenarios, is to identify all possible issues where forces could/should be employed, thus to use the Australian defense and security perspective etc.
I hope I answered your question,
All the best
Helene

]]> 评论者：Jerry Zellars https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/#comment-1317 Mon, 30 Dec 2013 22:37:58 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716#comment-1317 Helene: I really appreciate reviewing the work posted on this site. Today I was especially pleased to have been exposed to the work of Charles W. Taylor–very helpful to my research and approach to scenario development!

Happy New Year!

]]> 评论者：Jim Molan https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/#comment-1315 Mon, 30 Dec 2013 22:15:27 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716#comment-1315 Helene hi, in your earlier posts, do you cover why you are doing this, for example, in order to force structure or to prosecute a campaign. It looks very useful but my interest lies in Australia’s situation where the development of scenarios might be used to test force structures that are developed to cover the unpredictable. Hope that makes sense. Rgds Jim

]]> 评论者：Dr Helene Lavoix https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/#comment-1314 Mon, 30 Dec 2013 14:55:47 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716#comment-1314 回复给 Carmen Karen。

Thank you Carmen! Definitely… and actually this is what I plan to do with the next post :)

]]> 评论者：Carmen Karen https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/11/15/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war/#comment-1313 Mon, 30 Dec 2013 12:36:18 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716#comment-1313 Thank you for this interesting assessment, very useful for a better understanding of war developments. You could also make a similar analysis for potential reasons for going to war.

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