在处理未来问题时,我们使用的语言包括具体的概念,如概率和影响的表达。例如,在概率方面,我们使用 "可能 "这样的词,而在影响方面,我们使用 "严重 "这样的词。此外,为了真正做到完整,我们应该增加一个信心判断。

正如豪雅在概率案例中所解释的,这些都是主观判断的表达。因此,这些词语是 "模糊性和误解 "的来源(Richards J. Jr. Heuer, , 情报分析的心理学中央情报局情报研究中心,1999年:152)。

我们的 成员学员 可以在下面下载这些词的 "小抄 "及其解释。对于概率,我们提供了主观性词语和数字概率之间的对应关系。

点击图片或链接到 下载.
(你需要成为会员或学员才能下载该文件)。

封面图片。 彼得-洛马斯 通过Pixabay [公共领域]


发布者:Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Helene Lavoix博士 is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.

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