评论者：Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Tue, 01 Dec 2020 09:54:39 +0000

回复给 Dan。

You should read more attentively… you missed the word possibly. You are on a website where we work on uncertainty and scenarios, and where usage of words does matter. You also missed the fact that I highlighted exactly what you explained with the opening sentence “Beyond rampant COVID-19 cases considered as identified and quarantined.”

You also should have gone on reading as I wrote: “We thus seem to have a rise in the number of possible clusters, compared with the previous six months. Yet, each time a rapid control leads to a decreasing number of cases.”… which is in substance what you think I have not understood. Of course you will note the use of the words “seem” and “possible”…!

You also missed the fact that I ask exactly that question (will the curve be flat considering the measures taken, or not) at the end of the article, and that the next article will be about the measures taken by the Chinese political authorities.

Asking questions – what you call conjecture – is fundamental to proper strategic foresight and warning. You never ever remove a scenario that is unlikely or implausible, you keep them and then add the very low likelihood, if needed. What you promote is censorship, mind-forged manacles. This is how surprise takes place and this is exactly what we fight.

On top of it you make it aggressively, which is unpleasant and again is counterproductive in terms of understanding and foresight.
Maybe you should explain why you felt you needed to be so agressive, what are your motivations and interests here?

评论者：丹

Dan — Tue, 01 Dec 2020 04:29:18 +0000

“Compared with the three clusters the media reported, the dxy.cn epidemic map for 27 November below shows higher numbers of COVID-19 cases in 7 provinces and cities (plus Taiwan and Hong Kong). These possibly indicate clusters.”

This is most likely wrong, and the fact that the author even makes this conjecture shows that, scientific credentials notwithstanding, she does not understand much about the actual situation in China. Thousands of travelers are still arriving in China each day (mostly Chinese returning from abroad, but other also). All are subject to mandatory centralized 14-day quarantine in a hotel. Most or all of those symptomatic cases in other parts of China outside of the three major clusters are most likely attributable to people who tested positive and then became symptomatic during this quarantine period. As soon as somebody tests positive in quarantine, they will be transferred to an infectious disease ward in a hospital under strict quarantine and observation. These are simply imported cases. It doesn’t mean there is community transmission or new clusters developing.

"COVID-19 第二次浪潮是否会登陆中国？

评论者：Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

评论者：丹