(艺术设计。 Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)

Have you ever heard about Cassandra’s brother, who shared his sister’s gift of prophecy but not her curse?


在告诉了 海伦努斯的故事,我们强调 教训 我们可以从这个故事中学习。


The story of Helenus comes from weaving together the texts of different Greek and Roman authors, each bringing light to a part of our hero’s life. We use here:

  • 荷马史诗可能创作于公元前8世纪(书面形式为8世纪和6世纪之间)。英文翻译与正文相同。 法语翻译 (FR) par Charles-René-Marie Leconte de L’Isle.
  • 维吉尔。罗马诗人,公元前70年-公元前19年。英译本与正文相同。 法语翻译 (FR) Anne-Marie Boxus et Jacques Poucet, 2009.
  • 科农。希腊语法学家和神话学家,公元前63年-公元14年。
  • Dictys Cretensis: fictitious account probably created in Greek around the 1st or 2nd century CE (e.g. “Dictys Cretensis", 卢湾研究, 2005?).
  • (伪)阿波罗多留斯。 图书馆 (或 书店): a compendium of Greek myths and legends: 1st, 2nd or 3rd century CE (e.g. Stefano Acerbo, “佚名:Apollodorus Bibliotheca[Apollodorus的图书馆]。文学百科全书“, January 2019, Researchgate).
  • 保萨尼亚斯。希腊地理学家,公元110年-约公元180年。

海伦努斯是特洛伊王子,是普里安国王和赫库巴女王的儿子,也是卡桑德拉的双胞胎兄弟。有一天,这两个孩子在阿波罗Thymbraeus神庙里睡着了,早上被发现时身边有蛇在舔他们的耳朵。从那时起,他们就能看到并预言未来,因为他们得到了预言的天赋(Apollodorus图书馆詹姆斯-乔治-弗雷泽爵士,Ed,9.fn 20 Scholiast on Hom.Il. vii.44Tzetzes, Scholiast on Lycophron, Introd. vol. i. pp.C. G. Müller).

Helenus became “far the best of augurs” (Homer, 伊利亚特, vi.76).

As Troy was attacked by the Greeks and the battle raged, during the first years of the war, Helenus went to Aeanas, a second cousin, son of goddess Aphrodite and favoured by Apollo, and to Hector, his eldest brother, and foretold them in detail how they could turn the tide in the battle and obtain a victory. His prophecy included seeing Hector advising the Queen their Mother that she should lead the offerings of the Trojan wives to “flashing-eyed Athene” so that the goddess would remove the feared most valiant Greek warrior Diomedes from the battle. The Goddess had to be won to the Trojans’ side as she was siding with the Greeks. Hector was wise enough to carefully listen to his brother and do as advised. As a result,

“… and they [the enemy] deemed that one of the immortals had come down from starry heaven to bear aid to the Trojans, that they rallied thus. [110] And Hector shouted aloud and called to the Trojans:

荷马。 伊利亚特, vi.76

Some time later, as “flashing-eyed”, “daughter of great Zeus” Athene wanted to act to favour the Greeks and stop too many Trojan victories, Apollo, supporter of Troy, rushed to meet her. The god “king Apollo, son of Zeus” had to find a way to stop her meddling, thus preserving Troy, yet to also satisfy her. The gods finally agreed on a plan contenting them both and postponing a costly battle for singular combats against the most valiant Hector,

“… And Helenus, the dear son of Priam, understood in spirit [45] this plan that had found pleasure with the gods in council; and he came and stood by Hector’s side, and spake to him, saying: “Hector, son of Priam, peer of Zeus in counsel, wouldst thou now in anywise hearken unto me? for I am thy brother. Make the Trojans to sit down, and all the Achaeans, [50] and do thou challenge whoso is best of the Achaeans to do battle with thee man to man in dread combat. Not yet is it thy fate to die and meet thy doom; for thus have I heard the voice of the gods that are for ever.” So spake he and Hector rejoiced greatly when he heard his words… “

荷马。 伊利亚特, vii.44

海伦努斯也是一位出色的战士,除了他的兄弟,他还与希腊人作战(例如荷马。 伊利亚特, xii.94).


As Paris had died, Helenus sought to marry his widow, Helene. Alas, his younger brother Deiphobus was preferred through manipulations and “by the favour & faction of the Great” (Conon, 叙事e, 34).

在不同的后一版本中,海伦努斯和埃涅阿斯看到特洛伊发生的亵渎行为感到非常愤怒,因为普里阿姆的儿子亚历山大在阿波罗神庙中欺骗了阿基里斯并打伤了他(Dictys Cretensis iv.18).


“…He [Helenus] feared not death but the gods, whose shrines Alexander had desecrated, a crime which neither Aeneas nor himself was able to bear. As for Aeneas, he, fearing our anger, had stayed behind with Antenor and old Anchises,…
… During the same time, the sons of Antimachus (whom we have mentioned above) came to Helenus as representatives of Priam. But he refused to do as they begged, that is, to return to his people; and so they departed. 

Dictys Cretensis iv.18


While [Helenus] was living there quietly, Calchas persuaded the Greeks to set up an ambush for him, and to make him a prisoner of war, in which they succeeded. Helenus, intimidated, prayed to, caressed, and driven also by his resentment, revealed to the Greeks the secret of the state; that the fate of Troy was that it could only be taken by means of a wooden horse, & that it was necessary moreover to remove a statue fallen from Heaven, called the Palladium,[146] which of all the statues preserved in the citadel, was the smallest. “

科农。 叙事e, 34 – Note: The Palladium is a wooden statue of 帕拉斯-雅典娜, "智慧的雅典娜".


Helenus destiny was now linked to the Greeks. He foretold Pyrrhus the elder that he would settle in Epirus, which Pyrrhus did. Pyrrhus granted Helenus the kingdom of Chaonians. Thus, Helenus became king. Helenus married Andromach, Hector’s then Pyrrhus’ widow (Pausanias, 格雷西描述, Tome premier, l’Attique, i.11, ii. 23, fn 139 and 140).艾纳斯按照众神的命令从两度沦陷的特洛伊城逃出,他的父亲安奇斯在他的背上,发现了这样描述的令人惊讶的情况。


维吉尔。 埃涅伊德,iii. 294-490


[356] “… ‘O son of Troy, interpreter of the gods, who know the will of Phoebus, the tripod and laurel of the Clarian, the stars, and tongues of birds and omens of the flying wing, come, tell me – for every sign from heaven has uttered favourable words to me about my journey, and all the gods in their oracles have counseled me to make for Italy and explore lands remote; only Celaeno the Harpy prophesies a startling portent, horrible to tell of, and threatens baleful wrath and foul famine – what perils am I first to shun? And by what course may I surmount such suffering?

维吉尔。 埃涅伊德,三356。



[374] “’Goddess-born, since there is clear proof that under higher auspices you journey over the sea – for thus the king of the gods allots the destinies and rolls the wheel of change, and such is the circling course – a few things out of many I will unfold to you in speech, that so more safely you may traverse the seas of your sojourn, and find rest in Ausonia’s haven; for the Fates forbid Helenus to know more and Saturnian Juno stays her utterance…. Moreover, if Helenus has any foresight, if the seer may claim any faith, if Apollo fills his soul with truths, this one thing, Goddess-born, this one in lieu of all I will foretell, and again and again repeat the warning: mighty Juno’s power honour first with prayer; to Juno joyfully chant vows, and win over the mighty mistress with suppliant gifts….These are the warnings that you are permitted to hear from my voice. Go, then, and by your deeds exalt Troy in greatness unto heaven!’…”

维吉尔。 埃涅伊德,三,356-374





First of all, Helenus’s foresights are each time very detailed and precise.


Obviously and relatedly, the Trojan seer’s foresight is fundamentally actionable. Actually, it is more than actionable.




与情报部门选择的方案相反,预测和政策建议是分开的(见 从卡桑德拉的诅咒到毕蒂亚的成功),与Helenus一起,我们肯定是在为未来提供建议的领域。



As a result, even though as strategic foresight and warning practitioners we must envision all possible scenarios, probabilize and monitor them, what we must give to policy-makers and decision-makers are advice for a victorious or winning response. Warning is necessary, but might be better received if it is accompanied by or transformed in “foresight and warning for success”.

Accessorily, nowadays, considering the propensity to be anxious and fearful when faced with reality and the wish for a happy end and “positivity”, such approach may save the strategic foresight and warning practitioner from many unpleasant situations.



Very interestingly, and in a way that is related to what we saw with the Pythia (see Helene Lavoix, “从卡桑德拉的诅咒到毕蒂亚的成功", The Red Team Analysis Society,2021年5月),海伦努斯的故事告诉我们,成功的预见性离不开倾听,然后征询特定的神灵。在21世纪,我们该如何解释这一方面呢?




To “re-enchant foresight” properly, we must use an understanding of the symbol and essence of the archetypes the gods of Homer and Virgil embody, following Jung (人和他的符号, 1964). As a result, we shall fully benefit from Helenus’ tale.



This corresponds to considering the interplay and interweaving of various dynamics – the “forces” – at work in the world. To understand this interplay, we must thus pay attention to and understand the underlying processes out of which phenomena result. This is what I would call true classical proper foresight analysis, which leads us to develop a model for each issue (see 关于分析性建模的课程1).

在此必须强调的是,这种理解绝不是像我们现在经常发现的那样,通过将多种互不相干的趋势并列在一起而获得的(例如,对于这种方法的一些危险和不足,H. Lavoix, 未来的关键技术 (1), The Red Team Analysis Society2021年6月)。在我们的领域中,很多人都表现出无法创建等级分类法,而且在社会上越来越广泛地表现出这种能力,在最好的情况下是令人费解的,在最坏的情况下是危险的。同样,个人无法理解因素中的可转换性(如果A意味着B,B意味着C,那么A就意味着C)也是令人担忧的。


为了解释这种不令人满意的观点的传播,除其他因素外,我们可能有邓宁-克鲁格效应("不熟练且不自知的人… 1999, see 关于分析性建模的课程1, 关于减少偏见的课程3). Worse still, we may worry that a general lowering of intelligence – measured through IQ scores – in developed countries – starts manifesting here (Evan Horowitz, “IQ rates are dropping in many developed countries and that doesn’t bode well for humanity", 思考, May 2019; Peter Dockrill, “IQ Scores Are Falling in “Worrying” Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom", 科学提示,2018年6月13日)。如果这样的研究是正确的,那么从1975年开始,每一代人的智商分数可能会下降7分,并根据各种变量而变化。当然我们也可以打破温度计,但这将是一个非常具有破坏性的态度。


Indeed, Helenus’ tale tells us that foresight must consider the forces, even unseen, that are at work and that it is a necessary condition for success.






For example, in the context of war, Helenus explains to Hector what must be done to cajole and please Athene. This is all the more important that Athene sides normally with the Greeks. Nonetheless Helenus’ foresight is right and the Trojans succeed. In other words, the qualities that Trojans had then to seek in war was wisdom as Athene is the goddess of wisdom and war strategy, the second being impossible without the first. They listen to Helenus and win.

In the third prophecy given to Aeanas, the goddess who must be please is Juno, Zeus consort. Juno, however, was the enemy of Trojans in general and of Aenas in particular. A straightforward transposition to our century is more difficult. We may hypothesise that Helenus’ advice was related to the need for Aenas to pay particular attention to those people still obeying to the great-goddess, which Juno may represent. The advice may also suggest that Aenas had not to marry until he had reached the end of his journey. In any case, what matters for us is the type and scope of advice Helenus gives.




The two main heroes who listen to Helenus are not any character. They are Hector, the most valiant Trojan prince, meant to succeed King Priam, and then Aenas, half god, considered as very valiant and of high moral standard and then the founder of Rome. Despite their status and qualities, both listen to Helenus, as the seer is, at the end of the day, merely the one who unveils part of the gods’ plans. They are not interacting though narcissism, competition, and will to dominate another but at a higher level, which is to act together in a just way to achieve a greater goal.


Then and exactly as we saw previously in the story of Tigranes, the disappearance of the heroes also somehow goes hand in hand with the absence of foresight that is delivered (Helene Lavoix, “为什么信使被枪杀以及如何避免这种命运", The Red Team Analysis Society,2021年4月)。



However, here, thanks to Roman Virgil and Greek Pausanias, there is an interesting twist to the story that brings us beyond Plutarch’s understanding.










*伊利奥斯和特洛伊在荷马中传统上被认为是同义词 伊利亚特 (see María Del Valle Muñoyerro, “Troy and Ilios in Homer: Region and City”, 谷田, 74.Bd., 3./4.H. (1997/1998),第213-226页。


荷马。 ǞǞǞ 伊利亚特 与A.T. Murray博士的英译本分两卷。马萨诸塞州剑桥市,哈佛大学出版社;伦敦,William Heinemann,有限公司。1924.

Jung, Carl Gustav, 人和他的符号, 1964.

克鲁格,贾斯汀,和大卫-邓宁,"不熟练而不自知:难以认识到自己的无能如何导致自我评估的膨胀", 人格与社会心理学杂志,第77卷,第6期,第1121-1134页,美国心理学会(1999)。

韦伯,马克斯。 "科学是天职" 1917.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。


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