(艺术设计。 Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)

Have you ever heard about Cassandra’s brother, who shared his sister’s gift of prophecy but not her curse?

这个传说能否像其他古代神话、事实和历史一样,给我们提供一些线索,使我们的战略前瞻和预警产品的交付和沟通更加有效?它能不能告诉我们一些关于改善战略预见和预警从业者和风险管理者的命运?

在告诉了 海伦努斯的故事,我们强调 教训 我们可以从这个故事中学习。

海伦斯的故事

The story of Helenus comes from weaving together the texts of different Greek and Roman authors, each bringing light to a part of our hero’s life. We use here:

  • 荷马史诗可能创作于公元前8世纪(书面形式为8世纪和6世纪之间)。英文翻译与正文相同。 法语翻译 (FR) par Charles-René-Marie Leconte de L’Isle.
  • 维吉尔。罗马诗人,公元前70年-公元前19年。英译本与正文相同。 法语翻译 (FR) Anne-Marie Boxus et Jacques Poucet, 2009.
  • 科农。希腊语法学家和神话学家,公元前63年-公元14年。
  • Dictys Cretensis: fictitious account probably created in Greek around the 1st or 2nd century CE (e.g. “Dictys Cretensis", 卢湾研究, 2005?).
  • (伪)阿波罗多留斯。 图书馆 (或 书店): a compendium of Greek myths and legends: 1st, 2nd or 3rd century CE (e.g. Stefano Acerbo, “佚名:Apollodorus Bibliotheca[Apollodorus的图书馆]。文学百科全书“, January 2019, Researchgate).
  • 保萨尼亚斯。希腊地理学家,公元110年-约公元180年。

海伦努斯是特洛伊王子,是普里安国王和赫库巴女王的儿子,也是卡桑德拉的双胞胎兄弟。有一天,这两个孩子在阿波罗Thymbraeus神庙里睡着了,早上被发现时身边有蛇在舔他们的耳朵。从那时起,他们就能看到并预言未来,因为他们得到了预言的天赋(Apollodorus图书馆詹姆斯-乔治-弗雷泽爵士,Ed,9.fn 20 Scholiast on Hom.Il. vii.44Tzetzes, Scholiast on Lycophron, Introd. vol. i. pp.C. G. Müller).

Helenus became “far the best of augurs” (Homer, 伊利亚特, vi.76).

As Troy was attacked by the Greeks and the battle raged, during the first years of the war, Helenus went to Aeanas, a second cousin, son of goddess Aphrodite and favoured by Apollo, and to Hector, his eldest brother, and foretold them in detail how they could turn the tide in the battle and obtain a victory. His prophecy included seeing Hector advising the Queen their Mother that she should lead the offerings of the Trojan wives to “flashing-eyed Athene” so that the goddess would remove the feared most valiant Greek warrior Diomedes from the battle. The Goddess had to be won to the Trojans’ side as she was siding with the Greeks. Hector was wise enough to carefully listen to his brother and do as advised. As a result,

“… and they [the enemy] deemed that one of the immortals had come down from starry heaven to bear aid to the Trojans, that they rallied thus. [110] And Hector shouted aloud and called to the Trojans:
"你们这些特洛伊人,心高气傲,是远近闻名的盟友,做人吧,我的朋友,想想你们愤怒的勇气,而我去伊利俄斯*,让提供建议的长老和我们的妻子[115]向神明祈祷,并答应他们的要求。"

荷马。 伊利亚特, vi.76

Some time later, as “flashing-eyed”, “daughter of great Zeus” Athene wanted to act to favour the Greeks and stop too many Trojan victories, Apollo, supporter of Troy, rushed to meet her. The god “king Apollo, son of Zeus” had to find a way to stop her meddling, thus preserving Troy, yet to also satisfy her. The gods finally agreed on a plan contenting them both and postponing a costly battle for singular combats against the most valiant Hector,

“… And Helenus, the dear son of Priam, understood in spirit [45] this plan that had found pleasure with the gods in council; and he came and stood by Hector’s side, and spake to him, saying: “Hector, son of Priam, peer of Zeus in counsel, wouldst thou now in anywise hearken unto me? for I am thy brother. Make the Trojans to sit down, and all the Achaeans, [50] and do thou challenge whoso is best of the Achaeans to do battle with thee man to man in dread combat. Not yet is it thy fate to die and meet thy doom; for thus have I heard the voice of the gods that are for ever.” So spake he and Hector rejoiced greatly when he heard his words… “

荷马。 伊利亚特, vii.44

海伦努斯也是一位出色的战士,除了他的兄弟,他还与希腊人作战(例如荷马。 伊利亚特, xii.94).

随着时间的推移,希腊和特洛伊的英雄们相继被杀,一个人的死亡导致了悲伤、报复和另一个人的死亡。帕特罗克勒斯、赫克托、阿基里斯,然后是帕里斯被杀。诸神并没有休息,他们为自己喜欢的一方展开了充分的争斗和争论。

As Paris had died, Helenus sought to marry his widow, Helene. Alas, his younger brother Deiphobus was preferred through manipulations and “by the favour & faction of the Great” (Conon, 叙事e, 34).

在不同的后一版本中,海伦努斯和埃涅阿斯看到特洛伊发生的亵渎行为感到非常愤怒,因为普里阿姆的儿子亚历山大在阿波罗神庙中欺骗了阿基里斯并打伤了他(Dictys Cretensis iv.18).

在这两段记载中,海伦娜斯决定离开特洛伊,到艾达山避难。

“…He [Helenus] feared not death but the gods, whose shrines Alexander had desecrated, a crime which neither Aeneas nor himself was able to bear. As for Aeneas, he, fearing our anger, had stayed behind with Antenor and old Anchises,…
… During the same time, the sons of Antimachus (whom we have mentioned above) came to Helenus as representatives of Priam. But he refused to do as they begged, that is, to return to his people; and so they departed. 

Dictys Cretensis iv.18

希腊人了解到Helenus的撤退后,要么把他作为囚犯,强迫他说话,要么诱使他这样做。

While [Helenus] was living there quietly, Calchas persuaded the Greeks to set up an ambush for him, and to make him a prisoner of war, in which they succeeded. Helenus, intimidated, prayed to, caressed, and driven also by his resentment, revealed to the Greeks the secret of the state; that the fate of Troy was that it could only be taken by means of a wooden horse, & that it was necessary moreover to remove a statue fallen from Heaven, called the Palladium,[146] which of all the statues preserved in the citadel, was the smallest. “

科农。 叙事e, 34 – Note: The Palladium is a wooden statue of 帕拉斯-雅典娜, "智慧的雅典娜".

因此,特洛伊的命运已经注定。特洛伊陷落了。

Helenus destiny was now linked to the Greeks. He foretold Pyrrhus the elder that he would settle in Epirus, which Pyrrhus did. Pyrrhus granted Helenus the kingdom of Chaonians. Thus, Helenus became king. Helenus married Andromach, Hector’s then Pyrrhus’ widow (Pausanias, 格雷西描述, Tome premier, l’Attique, i.11, ii. 23, fn 139 and 140).艾纳斯按照众神的命令从两度沦陷的特洛伊城逃出,他的父亲安奇斯在他的背上,发现了这样描述的令人惊讶的情况。

[294]"在这里,一个难以置信的故事的传闻充斥着我们的耳朵,普里阿姆的儿子海伦努斯正在统治希腊的城市,他赢得了阿基里斯的儿子皮鲁斯的妻子和王国,而安德罗玛奇又转到了她自己种族的丈夫那里。

维吉尔。 埃涅伊德,iii. 294-490

海伦努斯国王在他的表弟到达时表示欢迎。然后,埃纳斯为他的旅行和他的命运担忧,趁机寻求大预言家的预言。

[356] “… ‘O son of Troy, interpreter of the gods, who know the will of Phoebus, the tripod and laurel of the Clarian, the stars, and tongues of birds and omens of the flying wing, come, tell me – for every sign from heaven has uttered favourable words to me about my journey, and all the gods in their oracles have counseled me to make for Italy and explore lands remote; only Celaeno the Harpy prophesies a startling portent, horrible to tell of, and threatens baleful wrath and foul famine – what perils am I first to shun? And by what course may I surmount such suffering?

维吉尔。 埃涅伊德,三356。

正如在特洛伊战争开始时,海伦娜斯提供了一个详细的、充满建议的预见,尽管是不完整的,因为凡人不可能知道所有的事情,而且诸神总是隐藏他们的一些设计。

然后海伦努斯,首先以适当的形式献上骏马,祈求上天的恩典,解开他神圣的眉毛;用他自己的手把我领到你的门前,菲比斯,为你的完全存在而激动,然后用牧师的灵感之唇这样预言。

[374] “’Goddess-born, since there is clear proof that under higher auspices you journey over the sea – for thus the king of the gods allots the destinies and rolls the wheel of change, and such is the circling course – a few things out of many I will unfold to you in speech, that so more safely you may traverse the seas of your sojourn, and find rest in Ausonia’s haven; for the Fates forbid Helenus to know more and Saturnian Juno stays her utterance…. Moreover, if Helenus has any foresight, if the seer may claim any faith, if Apollo fills his soul with truths, this one thing, Goddess-born, this one in lieu of all I will foretell, and again and again repeat the warning: mighty Juno’s power honour first with prayer; to Juno joyfully chant vows, and win over the mighty mistress with suppliant gifts….These are the warnings that you are permitted to hear from my voice. Go, then, and by your deeds exalt Troy in greatness unto heaven!’…”

维吉尔。 埃涅伊德,三,356-374

亚拿斯听从了海勒努斯的意见,建立了罗马。海勒努斯继续明智地、有远见地统治着伊庇鲁斯的乔尼亚王国。

我们能从海伦努斯身上学到什么?

成功的预见是精确和可操作的

在海伦努斯的故事中,我们发现大多数通常被强调为预知的关键因素,从而强调了其永恒的重要性。

First of all, Helenus’s foresights are each time very detailed and precise.

因此,那些接受它们的人可以非常实际地利用这些预见来采取行动。我们不是在笼统的领域,也不是在模糊的领域,恰恰相反。

Obviously and relatedly, the Trojan seer’s foresight is fundamentally actionable. Actually, it is more than actionable.

前瞻性意味着对成功行动的建议

海伦斯的预言是具体的建议,说明如何做才能与工作中的力量相协调,获得理想的目标。

咨询而非中立

与情报部门选择的方案相反,预测和政策建议是分开的(见 从卡桑德拉的诅咒到毕蒂亚的成功),与Helenus一起,我们肯定是在为未来提供建议的领域。

如果我们是为情报工作,并且仍然小心翼翼地避免引起不满,那么我们可能不得不放弃将预见性与政策建议分开的想法。相反,我们可能不得不完全接受我们也必须提供政策建议。

事实上,荷马还表明,如果人们听从海伦努斯的话,按预言行事,那么成功就会随之而来。

As a result, even though as strategic foresight and warning practitioners we must envision all possible scenarios, probabilize and monitor them, what we must give to policy-makers and decision-makers are advice for a victorious or winning response. Warning is necessary, but might be better received if it is accompanied by or transformed in “foresight and warning for success”.

Accessorily, nowadays, considering the propensity to be anxious and fearful when faced with reality and the wish for a happy end and “positivity”, such approach may save the strategic foresight and warning practitioner from many unpleasant situations.

然而,能够不仅做探索性的预见,以及警告,而且在规范性的预见中转化为成功的政策,几乎需要两倍的工作。因此,决策者和各种行为者是否愿意为实现这一结果付出必要的资源和代价,还有待观察(当然这里我不考虑次优的和失败的分析和工作)。

预见和神灵

Very interestingly, and in a way that is related to what we saw with the Pythia (see Helene Lavoix, “从卡桑德拉的诅咒到毕蒂亚的成功", The Red Team Analysis Society,2021年5月),海伦努斯的故事告诉我们,成功的预见性离不开倾听,然后征询特定的神灵。在21世纪,我们该如何解释这一方面呢?

重新赋予预见性

正如马克斯-韦伯(1917年)所解释的那样,海伦努斯和《伊利亚特》中的所有人物一样,首先是生活在一个尚未成为现代性所带来的世界的失落的受害者的地方。如果我们不试图理解他们与诸神以及与诸神发挥着全能作用的世界之间的互动,就无法理解他们的行为,包括他们的预见性。

在我们的时代和世纪里移植这个故事和它的智慧,并不意味着简单地把过去对神灵的神圣和敬畏转变为现在对科学和技术的盲目奴役,认为它是自由和非宗教的。

To “re-enchant foresight” properly, we must use an understanding of the symbol and essence of the archetypes the gods of Homer and Virgil embody, following Jung (人和他的符号, 1964). As a result, we shall fully benefit from Helenus’ tale.

向更大的力量交织在一起低头

海伦努斯的预见性源于对不断发展的复杂情况的理解,这些情况是由人类和诸神最经常看不见的力量所引发的。众神的确是这些力量的体现。

This corresponds to considering the interplay and interweaving of various dynamics – the “forces” – at work in the world. To understand this interplay, we must thus pay attention to and understand the underlying processes out of which phenomena result. This is what I would call true classical proper foresight analysis, which leads us to develop a model for each issue (see 关于分析性建模的课程1).

在此必须强调的是,这种理解绝不是像我们现在经常发现的那样,通过将多种互不相干的趋势并列在一起而获得的(例如,对于这种方法的一些危险和不足,H. Lavoix, 未来的关键技术 (1), The Red Team Analysis Society2021年6月)。在我们的领域中,很多人都表现出无法创建等级分类法,而且在社会上越来越广泛地表现出这种能力,在最好的情况下是令人费解的,在最坏的情况下是危险的。同样,个人无法理解因素中的可转换性(如果A意味着B,B意味着C,那么A就意味着C)也是令人担忧的。

这种方法可能产生的结果,充其量是一个完全不适合成功行动的零散前景。

为了解释这种不令人满意的观点的传播,除其他因素外,我们可能有邓宁-克鲁格效应("不熟练且不自知的人… 1999, see 关于分析性建模的课程1, 关于减少偏见的课程3). Worse still, we may worry that a general lowering of intelligence – measured through IQ scores – in developed countries – starts manifesting here (Evan Horowitz, “IQ rates are dropping in many developed countries and that doesn’t bode well for humanity", 思考, May 2019; Peter Dockrill, “IQ Scores Are Falling in “Worrying” Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom", 科学提示,2018年6月13日)。如果这样的研究是正确的,那么从1975年开始,每一代人的智商分数可能会下降7分,并根据各种变量而变化。当然我们也可以打破温度计,但这将是一个非常具有破坏性的态度。

如果无法考虑复杂的相互作用的不满意的方法的传播是一个既定的趋势,那么我们就必须找到补偿的方法,并说服人们使用这些方法。

Indeed, Helenus’ tale tells us that foresight must consider the forces, even unseen, that are at work and that it is a necessary condition for success.

然而,这还不够。

尊敬的诸神

海伦斯的故事也表明,人类必须接受并向这些比他们更强大的力量低头。

在这种情况下,那些听从正确预见的人将获得成功。

反过来,这意味着预见性也必须包括与采取最佳行为有关的建议,以便在考虑到这些比我们更大的力量时取得成功。

For example, in the context of war, Helenus explains to Hector what must be done to cajole and please Athene. This is all the more important that Athene sides normally with the Greeks. Nonetheless Helenus’ foresight is right and the Trojans succeed. In other words, the qualities that Trojans had then to seek in war was wisdom as Athene is the goddess of wisdom and war strategy, the second being impossible without the first. They listen to Helenus and win.

In the third prophecy given to Aeanas, the goddess who must be please is Juno, Zeus consort. Juno, however, was the enemy of Trojans in general and of Aenas in particular. A straightforward transposition to our century is more difficult. We may hypothesise that Helenus’ advice was related to the need for Aenas to pay particular attention to those people still obeying to the great-goddess, which Juno may represent. The advice may also suggest that Aenas had not to marry until he had reached the end of his journey. In any case, what matters for us is the type and scope of advice Helenus gives.

总而言之,我们的经验教训是,不仅要仔细考虑那些起作用的力量,而且要考虑解决这些力量的最佳方式。

预言家和正义的英雄

作为预言家的Helenus不能与那些寻求他的预言、认真听取他的意见,然后严格执行他的建议的人分开。

The two main heroes who listen to Helenus are not any character. They are Hector, the most valiant Trojan prince, meant to succeed King Priam, and then Aenas, half god, considered as very valiant and of high moral standard and then the founder of Rome. Despite their status and qualities, both listen to Helenus, as the seer is, at the end of the day, merely the one who unveils part of the gods’ plans. They are not interacting though narcissism, competition, and will to dominate another but at a higher level, which is to act together in a just way to achieve a greater goal.

因此,我们在这里必须保留的是,在战略预见的实践者和预见的使用者中,尽可能地培养对目标和世界的首要地位。

Then and exactly as we saw previously in the story of Tigranes, the disappearance of the heroes also somehow goes hand in hand with the absence of foresight that is delivered (Helene Lavoix, “为什么信使被枪杀以及如何避免这种命运", The Red Team Analysis Society,2021年4月)。

此外,根据后来的描述,特洛伊人本身的不利态度被强调。正是这种态度导致海伦努斯在伊达山上撤退。

这样看来,正如我们从普鲁塔克那里推断的那样(《信使为何被枪杀》,同上),当一个社会或文明衰落时,那么英雄和先见之明都会消失。这可能是只有英雄才能听从先见之明。如果英雄无处可寻,那么从事预见性工作的人除了退出,没有其他选择。

However, here, thanks to Roman Virgil and Greek Pausanias, there is an interesting twist to the story that brings us beyond Plutarch’s understanding.

终极奖励

当一个文明或社会衰落时,在人类历史上,其他文明或社会就会接管,但这只是暂时的。在我们的故事中,特洛伊作为腐朽的势力,而希腊城市作为上升的势力,就体现了这一点。

一旦上升的势力取得了最高地位,那么它就可以重新利用那些已经退出的预言家的预言,就像皮鲁斯那样。显示出智慧,因为没有智慧就无法取胜,他们就会奖励预言家。这就是Helenus成为国王的过程。

后来的说法试图进一步让海伦娜斯参与到特洛伊城的陷落中来。根据他们的说法,作为正在上升的势力,由于它仍然在争夺霸主地位,于是它开始寻找那些不得不退出自己社会的预言家的建议。得到这些建议后,上升的势力就有了迎来新时代所需的最后要素。

在这些故事中,最后,先知先觉者是赢家,因为他/她所遵循的行为路线是忠于更大的力量,忠于在英雄们倒下之前使特洛伊充满活力的公正价值和智慧,而不是忠于特洛伊的外壳。

然后,这可以在整个叙述中找到,或多或少的强调,通过拒绝接受自己文明的衰落,不仅是海伦努斯,还有埃纳斯,甚至赫克托尔,通过他的遗孀安卓玛克,特洛伊的真正代表继续存在并蓬勃发展。海伦努斯不仅统治着一个王国,而且由于他的先见之明,还帮助一个特洛伊人找到了下一个强国--罗马。

因此,海伦努斯的故事以对战略远见和警告实践者的双重希望信息结束。如果他们真正考虑到发挥作用的力量,如果他们服从这些力量的精神,服从远见和社会的价值观,那么,在最后,他们不仅会得到个人的回报,也会为看到一个更好、更强大的文明建设做出贡献。

最后,我将留给大家一个问题来思考:为什么我们的社会选择记住卡桑德拉、她的诅咒和悲惨的命运,而不是记住海伦努斯、他的祝福和光荣的命运?


注意事项

*伊利奥斯和特洛伊在荷马中传统上被认为是同义词 伊利亚特 (see María Del Valle Muñoyerro, “Troy and Ilios in Homer: Region and City”, 谷田, 74.Bd., 3./4.H. (1997/1998),第213-226页。

进一步的参考书目

荷马。 ǞǞǞ 伊利亚特 与A.T. Murray博士的英译本分两卷。马萨诸塞州剑桥市,哈佛大学出版社;伦敦,William Heinemann,有限公司。1924.

Jung, Carl Gustav, 人和他的符号, 1964.

克鲁格,贾斯汀,和大卫-邓宁,"不熟练而不自知:难以认识到自己的无能如何导致自我评估的膨胀", 人格与社会心理学杂志,第77卷,第6期,第1121-1134页,美国心理学会(1999)。

韦伯,马克斯。 "科学是天职" 1917.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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