社论-- Si vis pacem para bellum (如果你想要和平，就要准备好战争）和偏见 - 东亚局势的持续升级至少可以说是令人担忧的。我们有越来越强的信号指向战争的可能性，包括考虑到日本具有挑战性的国内局势。缓和局势的机会之窗很可能在不久的将来也会打开，应该积极监测和利用。另一个因素可能会使局势更加危险：是否有可能，实际上，只有极少数人，在内心深处，真正相信有可能发生大规模战争，作为一个读者。 Alexandros Liakopoulos 的BrightSideVeritas在一次讨论中指出？和平是当前国际秩序的关键准则之一。战争可以被想象为只发生在不稳定地区的少数国家，总是离家相对较远，确实有破坏稳定的影响，但却是可控的。更糟糕的是，正如《2030年国家信息中心全球趋势》所强调的，战争可以被认为是蔓延到各地区，但同样是以一种可控的方式。如果情况不是这样的呢？如果战争像以前一样不可控制呢？如果重大战争仍有可能发生呢？东海问题的主要行动者是在考虑到其他国家真的可以开战的情况下采取的行动，还是在估计他们永远不会走到那一步的情况下采取的行动，不管他们使用什么样的言辞？这些都是分析家和政策制定者需要问自己的关键问题。
本版还有更多内容，从空间资源产生的希望，到一些非常有趣的文章，这些文章应该有助于提高我们对政治现象的理解，以及令人清醒的消息，将日内瓦第二次会议的宣布纳入视野（叙利亚），等等。
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发布者：Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Helene Lavoix博士 is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France).
An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia.
She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics.
Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.
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