Learn to build and develop scenarios for political and geopolitical risk, global uncertainties and international security.

Step by step, you will learn to build a complete set of scenarios, with narratives and dedicated indicators. You will also learn to find out the probability of each scenario.

As a result, your scenarios will truly be fully actionable, while you will be able to use them for warning.

Throughout this course, you will find answers notably to the following questions:

  • What are scenarios and how do we build them?
  • 情景有什么用?
  • How can we synthesise the factors or variables identified as crucial for our issue or risk?
  • What are narratives and why do we use them?
  • What is a scenario-tree?
  • What are indicators? How to select them?
  • Do we need probabilities? How do we estimate probability for scenarios?

The page to enroll can be found 这里.


For trainees with instalments, if you want to know when you will be able to access a unit, click on the unit itself or find a timetable in My account >> 会员资格 >> Then choose your course and click either on the name of the course or on “View”

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

ZH