From Process to Creating your Analytical Model for Strategic Foresight and Warning, Early Warning, Risk Management and Scenario-building
通过本课程的学习，你将提高自己的实践能力，在快速发展的世界环境中预测全球风险、地缘战略和地缘政治风险和危机、不稳定、战争、国际和国家政治和安全威胁，包括大流行病，以及机遇（见 详细模块 below). It can and should be used to plan ahead for the COVID-19 pandemic.
你将学会估计影响，甚至是连带的复杂后果。同时，你将能够创建最佳的应对策略。而且，你会更了解这些问题。下载我们的宣传册 培训和在线课程 RTAS (pdf).
Including many practical examples and exercises from the real world, the course is designed and taught specifically for analysts and their officers, to help them overcome the many challenges they face and develop further analytical excellence (see 教学和培训 以下）。
The course will be of interest to all those who desire to acquire fundamental practical abilities to anticipate strategically global, international and domestic political risks, threats and also opportunities.
- 回顾 "预测 "的基本原理：为什么预见未来很重要；必须包括哪些要素；使用的总体过程是什么。
- 将 "模型 "的概念去掉，相反，通过循序渐进、简单易行的图形（地图）的使用，成为建模的专家。
- 学习正确绘制任何国际和国家安全问题的预测分析图，确保你没有准备好 "打最后一场战争"。
Watch a short presentation trailer
This course is designed to benefit from the new 在线学习环境 while remaining grounded in proper classical 高层 教师的学历证书, executive course training, as well as 实践经验, including as analyst of international relations issues notably for anticipation (check the 网站 for many various examples of analyses).
Helene Lavoix博士拥有伦敦大学东方和非洲研究学院的国际关系博士学位。 (SOAS) (and a MSc with distinction in international politics of Asia, SOAS). She is an experienced and international lecturer. She currently teaches at Master level at the renown SciencesPo – Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA). Previously, she taught at the RSIS, Nanyang University in Singapore, Master in Strategic Studies. She also trains executives, officials and analysts either with tailor-designed training for public, corporate, and NGOs’ clients or in dedicated programs (Brussels with Vesalius College, Geneva with the Geneva Center for Security Policy – GCSP – 2015). She has more than twenty years practical experience as an analyst in international relations specialised over the last ten years in strategic foresight and early warning. She is also fully acquainted with the various specificities of SF&W and risk management, from analysis to the challenges met by officers through her work as international coordinator for the Global Futures Forum and, even more directly as Director of the Red (Team) Analysis Society. See full bio 这里.
“This course [Sciences-Po-PSIA Master] is one of the few that are actually useful, putting theory into practice. I learned so much in the way of foresight and warning that I began to consider a viable career in risk analysis and crisis management.” 妮可-斯特罗纳 (美国--硕士生)。
This course is delivered through 14 units in 4 modules. As most trainees are professional and work, the course is planned to take 11 weeks to complete, as average, depending on participants. This means that you take the time to do most of the readings and to complete the exercises peacefully. You may, of course, set the pace for yourself, according to what interests you most and to your constraints, notably in terms of time. If you prefer an intensive and immersive way, skimming through the readings then you may be able to complete the whole course in 2 to 3 (full) days.
注：关于分期付款，请见 具体的时间表在这里。 You can benefit from access to the course for 6 full months. With usual training, and even with webinars and online conferences, once you have finished your training, you only have your notes and your memories. Here you can go back to each unit and use it fully how often you want and need.
Each unit includes a “lecture” video or a software tutorial (11 lectures, 3 tutorials), created to consider the specificities of online learning. Indeed, videos should not last more than twenty minutes as the attention span is reduced on the internet compared with a classical setting. “Research has shown the most successful courses in terms of content retention and course completion run in the 15-20 minute range” (Randhir Vieira, eLearn杂志, March 2014). Furthermore, shorter videos will allow for easier further consultation in case of need. Finally, shorter videos also allow for watching them more easily considering busy schedules.
We have thus created exercises specifically for this online course, to allow for practice. We have also designed and incorporated tests.
For most units, specific readings are provided in two categories. You are highly encouraged to read the “建议” ones. This reading is considered as a full part of each unit’s learning process. The section “进一步阅读” is provided as an option, should you seek to further develop this or that aspect of the unit.
Each unit (save those with software products tutorials) ends with an online interactive computer-marked assignment (a quiz). This test not only allows you to measure your progress, but also makes you benefit from “the testing effect”, according to which “the effort of retrieving knowledge from memory facilitates learning” (Gauri, Reyes, 心灵飞扬，2014年7月28日）。
The great advantage of online course is that you may progress at your own pace. You may dedicate a variable amount of time to each unit according to previous understanding, interest and needs. Your input as an “active learner” per unit can thus be adapted according to your busy schedule and the depth of knowledge you wish to acquire. Software tutorials constitute two full units. You will then use these software products in the framework of the exercises of following units. Thanks to the principle of online courses, you will be able to watch the tutorials as often as you need and when necessary, while practicing. As a result, you will develop an easy and stress-free mastery of these software products. Using them, with all the advantages they provide, will become as easy and as natural as using a word processor.
Some modicum of structure is also very helpful to frame an endeavour or, actually, any project. Furthermore, we are all very busy and time flies. Online learning is set in circumstances that are very different from those to which we are all used with classical training, when we physically go to a training session. In that case we have materially freed time to learn.
With online learning, you spare transportation time, sometimes hotels time, coffee breaks and lengthy lunches, to say nothing of induced costs. This helps you fit in-depth training much more easily in your agendas. Thus, you can go further compared with what you could have achieved during a “physical” training. But, it also means that you will probably not have freed time for your training.
So, to help you creating this time for your course and learning process, you should plan for one week per unit maximum, even if you have not done all the reading. Ultimately you are the one who will decide how much time you want to attribute to each unit. For example, for a specific unit you may decide spend more time to make more readings and exercises. You will receive an email each time you completed a unit (i.e. once you successfully complete the corresponding test), which you can use as an agenda reminder.
As a result the whole course should take you 11 weeks to complete. As explained above, you may also choose, of course, to spend more time on one unit or another, or actually less. In this way, you fully adapt the course to your needs.
您可以通过 "我的账户"（在菜单中，登录的下方）或下一个项目 "我的在线课程 "来访问该课程、您的进度和单元。
或者说。 联系我们 so that we can create a tailor-made training for your specific needs we shall deliver in our premises.
Module 1 – The mission of the SF&W analyst and officer
This module is made of two units. It explains first what is anticipation of national and international security issues or political and geopolitical problems. It stresses why it matters for public and corporate actors. Then, it underlines the main aims that analysts and officers seek to attain, and spells out major challenges. It presents the overall process and methodology for strategic foresight and warning or risk analysis.
Module 2 – The fundamentals of an analysis
This module is composed of 5 units focusing on the fundamentals of an analysis. It will first deal with biases, which are so challenging for analysis. Biases are unconscious mental errors, which, most of the time, hinder analysis. It is thus crucial to understand them before to begin tackling the practice of analysis, if we want to mitigate biases-related errors. The module will not only deal with the well-known cognitive biases but address all types of biases. Each time a bias will be explained, ways to mitigate it or cope with it will be suggested. The module will then explain and “de-dramatize” models and underline their importance for analysis. It will introduce progressively the use of graphs and networks for analytical modeling.
This module will introduce you to two open source and free software products. Those are the software that you will use throughout the rest of the course. The module will first underline the advantages of using these software for anticipatory analysis. Then two tutorials will allow you becoming familiar with each software product.
Module 4 – Building your graph: From Factors, Actors and Variables to the Construction of the Model
The Red Team Analysis Society moves from the UK to France. Come back in a couple of days, or leave your address and we shall send you an email.