Online Course – Geopolitical Risks and Crisis Anticipation: Analytical Model

From Process to Creating your Analytical Model for Strategic Foresight and Warning, Early Warning, Risk Management and Scenario-building

通过本课程的学习,你将提高自己的实践能力,在快速发展的世界环境中预测全球风险、地缘战略和地缘政治风险和危机、不稳定、战争、国际和国家政治和安全威胁,包括大流行病,以及机遇(见 详细模块 below). It can and should be used to plan ahead for the COVID-19 pandemic.

你将学会估计影响,甚至是连带的复杂后果。同时,你将能够创建最佳的应对策略。而且,你会更了解这些问题。下载我们的宣传册 培训和在线课程 RTAS (pdf).

根据自己的节奏和需要学习

强化培训

宁静的步伐

你需要的是一个密集的速成课程,以尽快投入使用? 你是否喜欢和平地训练,花时间阅读、练习和思考?
然后根据你自己的密集时间表参加课程。 然后根据你自己喜欢的速度参加课程。
一些受训者可以在三天内完成课程。 平均而言,你可以在10至15周内完成整个课程。
在这种情况下,我们建议你还是要快速浏览一下读物。如果你不熟悉这个过程,我们会解释如何做到这一点。如果你有时间,你可以回到书目中的读物。反正你在整个注册期间都可以进入该课程。 你可以计划每周做一到两个单元。这将使你有时间尽可能平静地阅读。因此,你将给自己时间静静地练习练习。你将深入吸收知识和理解。

课程简述

该课程以分析为重点。你将一步一步地实际发展你的预见性分析技能,以解决复杂的地缘政治、政治和全球问题。然后,你将能够把这种实践与大多数战略预见和警告、风险管理和预测方法结合起来(见《中国的战略预见》)。 课程是如何进行的?你作为一个积极的瘦身者的意见 以下)。你将明显地学会正确绘制一个问题的战略远景、早期预警和风险管理。

Including many practical examples and exercises from the real world, the course is designed and taught specifically for analysts and their officers, to help them overcome the many challenges they face and develop further analytical excellence (see 教学和培训 以下)。 

The course will be of interest to all those who desire to acquire fundamental practical abilities to anticipate strategically global, international and domestic political risks, threats and also opportunities.

本课程是我们关于战略远见和预警及风险管理培训计划的第一项。该课程 第二期网上课程 着重于情景建设。 如果你想一次性报名参加两门课程(见 捆绑式),你将获得21.4%的折扣(不含增值税的价格),在一年内享受这两门课程,而不是每门课程计划的6个月。.另外,如果你想晚点注册第二个课程,你将享受10%的折扣。

阅读对该课程的评论 这里.

为了帮助有预算的个人和学生,我们现在也提供分期付款的课程(关于报名和详细的时间表,请见 这里).

通过这个课程,你将会注意到

  1. 回顾 "预测 "的基本原理:为什么预见未来很重要;必须包括哪些要素;使用的总体过程是什么。
  2. 识别各种类型的许多偏见--分析师和预测的主要敌人之一--并学习如何减轻它们。
  3. 将 "模型 "的概念去掉,相反,通过循序渐进、简单易行的图形(地图)的使用,成为建模的专家。
  4. 加强你对动态政治分析的掌握。
  5. 学习正确绘制任何国际和国家安全问题的预测分析图,确保你没有准备好 "打最后一场战争"。
  6. 利用绘图和地图来加强你的分析以及预警,并准备好进行情景构建。

Watch a short presentation trailer

Trailer Music from “The President’s Own” United States Marine Band presents Siegfried’s Funeral March (trans. Howard Bowlin) and Finale (trans. Col. John Bourgeois) from Richard Wagner’s opera “Götterdämmerung.” Conducted by Col. John R. Bourgeois. From the album “Music of Richard Wagner,” recorded in 1981. Public Domain: US Code Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 (17-U.S.C.§105)

参与者

该课程主要是为以下人员设计的

  1. 与危机、政治、国际政治、安全、国防、战争、和平建设等问题有关的分析师和未来分析师。
  2. 风险、安全、战略远见和预警人员。
  3. 对于小企业和公司来说,负责战略的首席执行官和董事,如果他们没有处理这些问题的分析人员。

对于所有相关的行为者。

  1. 私营部门工作人员。
  2. 政府官员。
  3. 国际组织和非政府组织的工作人员。
  4. 军事专业人员。
  5. 情报专业人员。
  6. 风险管理专业人士。

公司和非营利团体。

如果你想注册大量的参与者,你可以 联系我们.

教学和培训

This course is designed to benefit from the new 在线学习环境 while remaining grounded in proper classical 高层 教师的学历证书, executive course training, as well as 实践经验, including as analyst of international relations issues notably for anticipation (check the 网站 for many various examples of analyses).

培训师

Helene Lavoix博士拥有伦敦大学东方和非洲研究学院的国际关系博士学位。 (SOAS) (and a MSc with distinction in international politics of Asia, SOAS). She is an experienced and international lecturer. She currently teaches at Master level at the renown SciencesPo – Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA). Previously, she taught at the RSIS, Nanyang University in Singapore, Master in Strategic Studies. She also trains executives, officials and analysts  either with tailor-designed training for public, corporate, and NGOs’ clients or in dedicated programs (Brussels with Vesalius College, Geneva with the Geneva Center for Security Policy – GCSP – 2015). She has more than twenty years practical experience as an analyst in international relations specialised over the last ten years in strategic foresight and early warning. She is also fully acquainted with the various specificities of SF&W and risk management, from analysis to the challenges met by officers through her work as international coordinator for the Global Futures Forum and, even more directly as Director of the Red (Team) Analysis Society. See full bio 这里.

他们说什么--学生和参与者--查找更多评论 这里

ProfImage Nicole 2“This course [Sciences-Po-PSIA Master] is one of the few that are actually useful, putting theory into practice. I learned so much in the way of foresight and warning that I began to consider a viable career in risk analysis and crisis management.” 妮可-斯特罗纳 (美国--硕士生)。

课程是如何提供的?

This course is delivered through 14 units in 4 modules. As most trainees are professional and work, the course is planned to take 11 weeks to complete, as average, depending on participants. This means that you take the time to do most of the readings and to complete the exercises peacefully. You may, of course, set the pace for yourself, according to what interests you most and to your constraints, notably in terms of time. If you prefer an intensive and immersive way, skimming through the readings then you may be able to complete the whole course in 2 to 3 (full) days.

全天候的培训,为期6个月

注:关于分期付款,请见 具体的时间表在这里。 You can benefit from access to the course for 6 full months. With usual training, and even with webinars and online conferences, once you have finished your training, you only have your notes and your memories. Here you can go back to each unit and use it fully how often you want and need.

适应网络环境

Each unit includes a “lecture” video or a software tutorial (11 lectures, 3 tutorials), created to consider the specificities of online learning. Indeed, videos should not last more than twenty minutes as the attention span is reduced on the internet compared with a classical setting. “Research has shown the most successful courses in terms of content retention and course completion run in the 15-20 minute range” (Randhir Vieira, eLearn杂志, March 2014). Furthermore, shorter videos will allow for easier further consultation in case of need. Finally, shorter videos also allow for watching them more easily considering busy schedules.

主动学习

对于每个单元的主动学习,都是为了能够更好地学习和吸收过程。 

We have thus created exercises specifically for this online course, to allow for practice. We have also designed and incorporated tests.

For most units, specific readings are provided in two categories. You are highly encouraged to read the “建议” ones. This reading is considered as a full part of each unit’s learning process. The section “进一步阅读” is provided as an option, should you seek to further develop this or that  aspect of the unit.

Each unit (save those with software products tutorials) ends with an online interactive computer-marked assignment (a quiz). This test not only allows you to measure your progress, but also makes you benefit from “the testing effect”, according to which “the effort of retrieving knowledge from memory facilitates learning” (Gauri, Reyes, 心灵飞扬,2014年7月28日)。

最后,成功参加考试,意味着你已经完成了一个单元。完成所有单元是获得最终证书的必要条件。

你作为一个积极学习者的投入和你的日程安排

你自己的节奏

The great advantage of online course is that you may progress at your own pace. You may dedicate a variable amount of time to each unit according to previous understanding, interest and needs. Your input as an “active learner” per unit can thus be adapted according to your busy schedule and the depth of knowledge you wish to acquire. Software tutorials constitute two full units. You will then use these software products in the framework of the exercises of following units. Thanks to the principle of online courses, you will be able to watch the tutorials as often as you need and when necessary, while practicing. As a result, you will develop an easy and stress-free mastery of these software products. Using them, with all the advantages they provide, will become as easy and as natural as using a word processor.

管理时间

Some modicum of structure is also very helpful to frame an endeavour or, actually, any project. Furthermore, we are all very busy and time flies. Online learning is set in circumstances that are very different from those to which we are all used with classical training, when we physically go to a training session. In that case we have materially freed time to learn.

节省时间

With online learning, you spare transportation time, sometimes hotels time, coffee breaks and lengthy lunches, to say nothing of induced costs. This helps you fit in-depth training much more easily in your agendas. Thus, you can go further compared with what you could have achieved during a “physical” training. But, it also means that you will probably not have freed time for your training.

创造时间

So, to help you creating this time for your course and learning process, you should plan for one week per unit maximum, even if you have not done all the reading. Ultimately you are the one who will decide how much time you want to attribute to each unit. For example, for a specific unit you may decide spend more time to make more readings and exercises. You will receive an email each time you completed a unit (i.e. once you successfully complete the corresponding test), which you can use as an agenda reminder.

完成的课程

As a result the whole course should take you 11 weeks to complete. As explained above, you may also choose, of course, to spend more time on one unit or another, or actually less. In this way, you fully adapt the course to your needs.

成功完成后,你将收到一份证书(一旦你成功完成所有测试)。

您可以通过 "我的账户"(在菜单中,登录的下方)或下一个项目 "我的在线课程 "来访问该课程、您的进度和单元。

如果你想获得更多的细节,并对我们的在线课程有更多的问题,请不要犹豫,以 联系我们

或者说。 联系我们 so that we can create a tailor-made training for your specific needs we shall deliver in our premises.

课程模块

Module 1 – The mission of the SF&W analyst and officer

2014年的作战室 This module is made of two units. It explains first what is anticipation of national and international security issues or political and geopolitical problems. It stresses why it matters for public and corporate actors. Then, it underlines the main aims that analysts and officers seek to attain, and spells out major challenges. It presents the overall process and methodology for strategic foresight and warning or risk analysis.

Module 2 – The fundamentals of an analysis

第二单元的偏见2014 This module is composed of 5 units focusing on the fundamentals of an analysis. It will first deal with biases, which are so challenging for analysis. Biases are unconscious mental errors, which, most of the time, hinder analysis. It is thus crucial to understand them before to begin tackling the practice of analysis, if we want to mitigate biases-related errors. The module will not only deal with the well-known cognitive biases but address all types of biases. Each time a bias will be explained, ways to mitigate it or cope with it will be suggested. The module will then explain and “de-dramatize” models and underline their importance for analysis. It will introduce progressively the use of graphs and networks for analytical modeling.

模块3--分析的软件 photo for vendor page

This module will introduce you to two open source and free software products. Those are the software that you will use throughout the rest of the course. The module will first underline the advantages of using these software for anticipatory analysis. Then two tutorials will allow you becoming familiar with each software product.

Module 4 – Building your graph: From Factors, Actors and Variables to the Construction of the Model

莱昂纳多红葡萄酒2014 本模块包括4/5个单元,最后一个单元是一个双单元,也包括一个软件教程。在这里,你将建立在你之前所看到的基础上。你将利用所获得的知识,逐步学会为一个国家或国际安全问题或风险建立一个完整的图表或网络,为战略预见和警告、风险分析或更普遍的所有预测性分析进行优化。你将提高你的技能,识别那些对分析地缘政治、全球和国家/国内安全问题至关重要的行为者和因素。你将熟悉以一种允许适当的面向未来的分析的方式对它们进行转换。最后,本模块将解释如何把所有东西放在一起,以获得一个可用于各种需求的模型。 

现在注册

The Red Team Analysis Society moves from the UK to France. Come back in a couple of days, or leave your address and we shall send you an email.

Online Course – Geopolitical Risks and Crisis Anticipation: Analytical Model

来自。 812,50  ,为期 6 months

逐步实践发展和提高你的预见性分析技能,以解决复杂的地缘政治风险、国家和全球安全和政治问题。掌握这些技能的方式,可以与大多数战略预见和预警、风险管理和预测方法一起使用。值得注意的是,要学会正确绘制问题或危机的地图,以便进行战略预见、预警和风险管理。

还包括。

  • 如果你成功地完成了所有单元的测试,在课程结束时可获得证书。
  • 访问红色(团队)分析协会的高级文章,包括在课程的阅读中。
  • 访问我们 "如何预见和警告--方法论 "部分的大多数高级文章。
  • 10%课程的折扣。 情景构建.
  • 我们的白金会员计划有10个%的折扣。

(要注册大量的课程参与者。 联系我们).

清楚
想获得折扣吗?成为会员吧。
想获得折扣吗?成为会员吧。
想获得折扣吗?成为会员吧。

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