Everstate是我们21世纪初的当代世界的一个想象中的国家，是为了识别和想象各种未来而创造的。它将被用来代表所有国家和每个国家。因此，Everstate是一个理想型状态。它也是为代表动态而构建的模型的简称 ...
标签存档：民族国家的未来
动态风险和不确定因素的建模 (1) : 绘制风险和不确定因素图
(本文是2011年11月以 "创建预见和预警模型 "为题发表的原始文章的全面更新版。绘制动态网络图（一）》）。绘制风险和不确定性是正确预测和管理风险和不确定性的正确过程的第二步。 这个阶段从建立一个模型开始，一旦完成，它将描述和解释手头的问题或议题，同时允许预测或预知。换句话说，随着第一步的结束，你已经选择了一个风险，一个不确定因素，或一系列的风险和不确定因素，或一个值得关注的问题，并有其适当的时间框架和范围，例如，什么是风险和不确定因素，以...
继续阅读“Modeling for Dynamic Risks and Uncertainties (1) : Mapping Risk and Uncertainty”
红队分析》第143期，迈向19世纪的秩序？
社论--迈向19世纪还是更黑暗、更遥远的过去？(注：上面的地图描绘的是1903年欧洲和地中海1190年的景象）上周我们强调，我们应该超越目前的乌克兰危机，估计它在改变世界秩序方面可能意味着什么。本周，我们发现一连串的信号继续指向这个方向，包括美国增长的疲软数据，这将是新的常态，质疑美元的至高无上，以及对美国权力的后果，在各条战线上。而乌克兰和克里米亚的紧张局势并没有减弱。同时，中东正处于转型的阵痛期，甚至更加紧张，...
继续阅读“The Red Team Analysis Weekly 143, Towards a 19th Century Order?”
2212 EVT：过时的世界观中的物质利害关系（《Everstate编年史》）。
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population as authorities cannot anymore deliver security. The last phenomenon driving Everstatan governing bodies’ rising inefficiency in ensuring their mission is an outdated worldview that leads to misunderstanding and disconnect, which is first upheld …
继续阅读“2212 EVT: Material Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)”
浏览Everstate的编年史
This page presents ways to follow and access the series of posts constituting The Chronicles of Everstate beyond usual linear menus.This idea, mapping the very posts of The Chronicles of Everstate, is a direct result of the interactive quality of this foresight experiment. One faithful reader, indeed, underlined that, as the number of posts increased, reading and understanding was becoming more complex, notably for newcomers. He suggested that a map would be very helpful to allow users and readers to navigate among posts. We then discussed various ways to implement this idea. Here are the results of this idea. The Chronicles of Everstate Mapped with PearltreesClick on the image to access the interactive map of the articles on Pearltrees. There, the …
2212 EVT：过时的世界观中的意识形态利害关系（《Everstate编年史》）。
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. The increasing incapacity of the political authorities to deliver the security citizens seek increases the risks to the legitimacy of the whole system. The first two phenomena driving Everstatan political authorities’ incapacity to deliver …
继续阅读“2212 EVT: Ideological Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)”
2212 EVT：Novstate的力量（Everstate的编年史）
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, the deepening chronic budget deficit and the rising need for liquidity of Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) give an increasing power to the lenders elite group, allowing for new forms of appropriation of public power. Everstate sinks into a vicious circle. On the difficulty of …
继续阅读“2212 EVT: the Power of Novstate (The Chronicles of Everstate)”
2212 EVT：公共资源和贷款人（Everstate的编年史）
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) sees a mounting discontent of its population because it has become insecure considering the impact of the new still misunderstood conditions. Three related phenomena drive Everstatan political authorities’ incapacity to deliver security. First, Everstate faces a changing set of resources implying …
继续阅读“2212 EVT: Public Resources and Lenders (The Chronicles of Everstate)”
