悲剧性事件袭击了Everstate。我们目睹了龙卷风和干旱,中东的战争,甚至一个重大的工业事故,而一个新的金融危机开始。考虑到全球、区域和Everstate内部所做的或未做的，这些都是主持Everstate命运的各种情况的实例。
每种情景都应使用同一组事件进行压力测试。然而，情景的逻辑将是第一位的，假设它影响到事件的合理性。在这种情况下，....
标签存档：战略远见
2213 - 2218 EVT - 经常账户有盈余？再想想吧!(Mamominarch)
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies have transformed the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission into policies. They have thus started implementing the programme …
继续阅读“2213 – 2218 EVT – A Current Account Surplus? Think again! (Mamominarch)”
2212-2213年EVT--实施Mamominarch结论
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, Everstate’s governing authorities decide to follow the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission that recommend to drastically reduce state expenditures. (The reader can …
继续阅读“2212-2213 EVT – Implementing the Mamominarch conclusions”
2212 EVT - 情景1 - Mamominarch。与国家决裂
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Plagued with a deepening budget deficit and an increasing need for liquidity, a creeping appropriation of resources while the strength of central public power weakens to the profit of various elite groups …
继续阅读“2212 EVT – Scenario 1 – Mamominarch: Off with the State”
浏览Everstate的编年史
This page presents ways to follow and access the series of posts constituting The Chronicles of Everstate beyond usual linear menus.This idea, mapping the very posts of The Chronicles of Everstate, is a direct result of the interactive quality of this foresight experiment. One faithful reader, indeed, underlined that, as the number of posts increased, reading and understanding was becoming more complex, notably for newcomers. He suggested that a map would be very helpful to allow users and readers to navigate among posts. We then discussed various ways to implement this idea. Here are the results of this idea. The Chronicles of Everstate Mapped with PearltreesClick on the image to access the interactive map of the articles on Pearltrees. There, the …
用 "自我网络 "构筑展望方案的叙事方式
重新审视影响力分析
一旦变量（根据作者，也称为因素和驱动因素）被确定，在我们的案例中 绘制的而大多数预见方法的目的是减少它们的数量，即只保留这些变量中的几个。
事实上，考虑到认知的局限性，以及有限的资源，人们试图获得一些可以被人脑轻松和相对快速地组合的变量。
我们在这里面临的方法论问题是如何最多减少这个变量的数量，确保我们不会重新引入偏见或/和简化我们的模型，以至于变得无用或次优。
此外，考虑到从业者对复杂模型的潜在不良反应，能够提出一个适当的简化或缩小的模型（但仍忠实于初始模型）往往是必要的。
动态风险和不确定性的建模（2）：绘制动态网络图
真正的民主》：全球地图--日期如地图所示
这张关于全球各种运动的地图可以通过谷歌地图合作修改和更新。要更新......它将尽量包括网上可获得的各种详细地图（见下文）Afficher Real Democracy Now!- World sur une carte plus grande 最新2011年6月26日 包括的地图。Real Democracy Now - Greece Όλες ...
2011年6月19日 #globalrevolution。噪声还是微弱的信号？
6月19日，转发各 "立即实现民主 "运动的地区和国家信息和呼吁的网络平台 "占领广场"，呼吁正式开始一场全球和平革命--按twitter的分类简称为#globalrevolution--通过全球示威来表达。真正的民主现在运动，正如已经...
