{"id":7590,"date":"2014-07-01T19:39:44","date_gmt":"2014-07-01T17:39:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?page_id=7590"},"modified":"2026-01-14T18:04:34","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T17:04:34","slug":"portal-strategic-intel-assessments-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/portal-strategic-intel-assessments-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u6218\u4e89"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:67%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 24 February 2022, at 3:00 GMT Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin dubbed it a \u201cspecial military operation\u201d. Immediately, part of the international community condemned this attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This attack results from a long, multidimensional escalation, with one of the focal node being the crisis in Ukraine, which started in November 2013. To assess and understand today&#8217;s war, not to fall in the trap of amazingly widespread <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/05\/24\/guerre-information-et-guerre-en-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">psychological operations (propaganda)<\/a>, it is necessary to comprehend the 2013-2014 years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33%\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">(Art design: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/%E2%9C%B8-jean-dominique-lavoix-carli-359958181\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli<\/a> with a photo by <a href=\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/User:Mstyslav_Chernov\/gallery#Ukraine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/User:Mstyslav_Chernov\/gallery#Ukraine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mstyslav Chernov\/Unframe<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/3.0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CC BY-SA 3.0<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div data-block-name=\"woocommerce\/product-category\" data-categories=\"[3367]\" data-columns=\"1\" data-content-visibility=\"{&quot;title&quot;:true,&quot;price&quot;:false,&quot;rating&quot;:false,&quot;button&quot;:false}\" data-rows=\"1\" class=\"wc-block-grid wp-block-product-category wp-block-woocommerce-product-category wc-block-product-category has-1-columns alignwide\"><ul class=\"wc-block-grid__products\"><li class=\"wc-block-grid__product\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/product\/architecture-critical-minerals-competition\/\" class=\"wc-block-grid__product-link\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"wc-block-grid__product-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"141\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-250x141.png\" class=\"attachment-woocommerce_thumbnail size-woocommerce_thumbnail\" alt=\"The Architecture of the Critical Minerals Competition: Mapping Geopolitical Risk\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-250x141.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-500x281.png 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-1568x882.png 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-18x10.png 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-1320x743.png 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H-1038x584.png 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Critical-Minerals-Competition-H.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"wc-block-grid__product-title\">The Architecture of the Critical Minerals Competition: Mapping Geopolitical Risk<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:67%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The current 2022 war is globally very polarised, with too many emotions running very high. As a result, publishing publicly objective assessments is difficult. Our work on the war, from detailed assessments and states of play to monitoring and warning on the issue, nonetheless, continues as we are commissioned to carry it out. As a result, publicly, here we only publish selected elements on <a href=\"#2022\">the war in 2022<\/a>. Our work <a href=\"#understand-the-conflict\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">on the 2013-2014 roots of the crisis<\/a> remains publicly available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2013-2014 crisis rapidly became&nbsp;a war. This page is a table of content for the strategic foresight and warning analysis of the crisis, conflict and&nbsp;war in Ukraine we published during 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our aim was to provide, first, in-depth strategic foresight &amp; warning analysis on the war&nbsp;in Ukraine, starting with identifying and presenting the actors. Second, we used this opportunity to engage in a methodological reflection on the challenges met during the analysis and ways forward to solve them. The lessons learned are useful for all complex crises and were integrated in our methodology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a brief introduction, back in 2013 and 2014, the war in Ukraine was a complex war, in as much as it encompasses various multi-dimensional phenomena, classical ones but also novel or relatively surprising ones, compared with what was generally&nbsp;thought of as possible or probable for the future.&nbsp;The second escalation, started during winter 2021 is no less complex and takes its roots in the first period. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33%\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"2022\">The War in Ukraine in 2022 &#8211; Selected features<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignwide wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568-250x150.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:125px;max-height:75px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568-250x150.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568-500x300.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568-768x461.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568-1536x922.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568-18x12.jpeg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568-1320x792.jpeg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568-1038x623.jpeg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AI-Ukraine-1568.jpeg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2024\/04\/08\/ai-at-war-1-ukraine\/\">AI at War (1) \u2013 Ukraine<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:125px;max-height:75px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Hiroshima-1038x623.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/10\/31\/can-you-unbias-analysis-russian-nuclear-threat\/\">Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/russian-tank-red-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:125px;max-height:75px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/russian-tank-red-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/russian-tank-red-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/09\/19\/alternative-red-scenario-war-ukraine-russia\/\">An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:125px;max-height:75px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Ukraine-Propaganda-light-1038x623.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/05\/24\/information-warfare-and-the-war-in-ukraine\/\">Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/mili-situation-27-June-300.jpg\" alt=\"war in Ukraine, strategic foresight and warning, Red (Team) Analysis\" class=\"wp-image-7729\" title=\"The Military situation, 27 June 2014 - Military Maps \" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/mili-situation-27-June-300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/mili-situation-27-June-300-250x145.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Image from Military Maps:&nbsp;Crowdsourced Map for 27 June &nbsp;\u2013 The application Military Maps was developed on&nbsp;<span style=\"color: #333333;\">the Russian social network Vkontakte (read \u201c<a style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit;\" href=\"http:\/\/globalvoicesonline.org\/2014\/05\/04\/crowdsourcing-ukraines-rebellion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Crowdsourcing Ukraine\u2019s Rebellion<\/a>\u201c, Global Voices, 4 May 2014). The page of the group is&nbsp;<a style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit;\" href=\"http:\/\/vk.com\/club70903182\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a>. The page of Military Maps can be found <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/MilitaryMaps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In terms of strategic foresight and warning methodology, the first period of escalation to war in Ukraine was definitely a challenge in various ways. Notably, the conflict being young, the situation was fluid and rapidly evolving, while polarization was at work. Analysts thus had to do two tasks in the same time. First, proper international relations and political analysis for strategic foresight and early warning, which demand time, reflection and knowledge. Notably, we had to consider the evolution of the international context as well as related potential impacts which were multi-dimensional and far-reaching, but may actualize on very different timeframes (see section below &#8220;International environment and world order&#8221;). Second, and in the same time, analysts had to keep abreast of rapidly evolving developments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"understand-the-conflict\">Understand the conflict<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-crisis-and-its-escalation\">The Crisis and its escalation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/05\/19\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-ukraine-setting-the-stage\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Conflict in Ukraine \u2013 Setting the Stage<\/a>&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 19 May 2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"methodology-actors-and-factors\">Methodology, actors and factors<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/04\/21\/actors-and-factors-in-future-threats-analysis-3-the-crisis-in-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Actors and Factors In Future Threats Analysis (3) \u2013 The Crisis in Ukraine<\/a>, by Helene Lavoix, 21 April 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/04\/07\/actors-labelling-and-factors-in-future-threats-analysis-2-the-crisis-in-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Actors Labelling and Factors In Future Threats Analysis (2) \u2013 The Crisis in Ukraine<\/a>,&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 21 April 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/03\/24\/actors-and-factors-in-future-security-threats-analysis-1-the-crisis-in-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Actors and Factors In Future Security Threats Analysis (1) \u2013 the Crisis in Ukraine<\/a>,&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 21 April 2014.<span style=\"color: #333333;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-actors\">The actors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-far-right-groups\">The far right groups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/11\/17\/conflict-ukraine-far-right-3-battalions\/\">Conflict in Ukraine \u2013 The Far-Right (3): Parties and Battalions<\/a>,&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 17 November 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Actors mapping &#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/ultra-nationalist-and-far-right-groups-in-ukraine-diagramme\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Ultra Nationalist and Far Right Groups in Ukraine<\/a> (Platinum members and Ukraine access)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/11\/10\/far-right-ukraine-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Conflict in Ukraine \u2013 The Far-Right (2): Demise or Metamorphosis?<\/a>&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 10 November 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/10\/20\/far-right-ultra-nationalism-ukraine\/\">Ultra-Nationalism and the Far Right in Ukraine (1): Victims and Heroes<\/a>,&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 20 October&nbsp;2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-separatists-in-donbass\">The Separatists in Donbass<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/07\/07\/donetsk-luhansk-peoples-republics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">War in Ukraine: Hope, Outrage and Fortitude \u2013 The Separatists (2)<\/a>, by Helene Lavoix, 7 July 2014; updated 10 July 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/06\/30\/towards-peace-ukraine\/\">War and Peace in Ukraine: The Separatists (1)<\/a>,&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 30&nbsp;June 2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-oligarchs\">The Oligarchs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Actors mapping &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/oligarchs-business-and-politics-in-ukraine-diagram\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Oligarchs, Business and Politics in Ukraine<\/a> (Platinum members and Ukraine access only)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/06\/13\/ukraine-state-play-oligarchs\/\">Conflict in Ukraine \u2013 State of Play \u2013 The Oligarchs<\/a>,&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 13&nbsp;June 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/06\/02\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-ukraine-state-of-play-the-oligarchic-system\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Conflict in Ukraine \u2013 State of Play \u2013 The Oligarchic System<\/a>,&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 2&nbsp;June 2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"international-environment-and-world-order\">International environment and world order<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/11\/13\/red-team-analysis-weekly-178\/\">Fighting Wars of Narratives, from AQ to IS, Ukraine and Russia<\/a>&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 178, by Helene Lavoix, 13&nbsp;November&nbsp;2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/09\/15\/isolated-russia\/\">An Isolated Russia? Think Again!<\/a>&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix, 15 September&nbsp;2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/06\/05\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-155-narratives-at-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Narratives at War: EU-US vs Russia vs Crowdsourced?<\/a> &#8211;&nbsp;The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 155, by Helene Lavoix, 5 June 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/04\/24\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-148-war-and-weak-signals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">War and Weak Signals<\/a> &#8211;&nbsp;The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 149, by Helene Lavoix, 24&nbsp;April 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/04\/17\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-148-a-strange-bipolar-world\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">A strange bipolar world?<\/a> &#8211;&nbsp;The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 148, by Helene Lavoix, 17 April 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/04\/03\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-146-a-case-study-in-escalation-nato-the-u-s-and-russia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">A case study in escalation: NATO, the U.S. and Russia<\/a> &#8211;&nbsp;The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 146, by Helene Lavoix, 3&nbsp;April 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/03\/27\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-145-risks-on-the-us-dollar-supremacy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Risks on the US Dollar Supremacy?<\/a>&nbsp;&#8211; The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 145, by Helene Lavoix, 27 March&nbsp;2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/03\/13\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no143-towards-a-19th-century-order\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Towards a 19th Century Order?<\/a> &#8211;&nbsp;The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 143, by Helene Lavoix, 13 March&nbsp;2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/03\/06\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no142-6-march-2014-beyond-ukraine-towards-change-in-the-world-order\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Beyond Ukraine, towards Change in the World Order?<\/a>&nbsp;&#8211; The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 142, by Helene Lavoix, 6&nbsp;March 2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"impacts-on-the-corporate-world\">Impacts on the corporate world<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/11\/28\/impact-conflict-in-ukraine-geopolitics-uncertainties-and-business-3\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Impacts of the Conflict in Ukraine \u2013 Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business<\/a>, 28 November 2016 (3000 words, approx. 15 pages).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/12\/05\/lessons-conflict-ukraine-geopolitics-uncertainties-business-4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine \u2013 Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business<\/a>, 5 December 2016 (2613 words, approx. 13 pages).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2022\u5e742\u670824\u65e5\u683c\u6797\u5c3c\u6cbb\u6807\u51c6\u65f6\u95f43:00\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u53d1\u52a8\u4e86\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u5f17\u62c9\u57fa\u7c73\u5c14-\u666e\u4eac\u5c06\u5176\u79f0\u4e3a \"\u7279\u522b\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\"\u3002\u968f\u5373\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u8c34\u8d23\u4e86\u8fd9\u6b21\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u653b\u51fb\u662f\u957f\u671f\u3001\u591a\u5c42\u9762\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7126\u70b9\u8282\u70b9\u662f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u8be5\u5371\u673a\u59cb\u4e8e11\u6708 ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/portal-strategic-intel-assessments-ukraine\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u6218\u4e89\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32384,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1206,2502,1784],"class_list":["post-7590","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","category-europe","category-ukraine","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>War in Ukraine &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Entry points to the various sections of our ongoing strategic foresight and warning analysis of the war in Ukraine, from int. impacts to actors analysis.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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