{"id":8225,"date":"2014-10-13T10:30:04","date_gmt":"2014-10-13T08:30:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?page_id=8225"},"modified":"2025-10-14T12:20:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T10:20:46","slug":"portal-strategic-foresight-warning-analysis-libya","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/portal-strategic-foresight-warning-analysis-libya\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u5206\u6790\u95e8\u6237\u7f51\u7ad9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">Image: <a class=\"external text\" href=\"http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/people\/32834977@N03\" rel=\"nofollow\">Al Jazeera English<\/a>,&nbsp;<br><a class=\"external text\" href=\"http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/aljazeeraenglish\/5651112850\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">High-powered technical<\/a>, 2011,&nbsp;<br><a href=\"http:\/\/(http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/2.0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CC BY-SA 2.0<\/a> via Wikimedia Commons<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The conflict in Libya was a full-blown war. As underlined by Jon Mitchell, in his <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/10\/13\/potential-futures-libya\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">article<\/a> opening the series, &#8220;a continuing and strengthening Libyan civil war poses a significant challenge in the North African and Middle Eastern regions, and even beyond. Besides the direct domestic disaster resulting from civil war, the early\u00a0involvement of <a href=\"http:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/files\/ending_libya_civ_war.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">five foreign regional governments <\/a>(each with their own political or security stake in Libya) backing the fighting domestic actors could be a powder-keg, further destabilizing the region.&#8221; Notably, the war in Libya had\u00a0&#8211; and still has? &#8211; the strong potential to play in the hand of the Islamic State (see corresponding <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/11\/25\/portal-islamic-state-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">articles<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This\u00a0series, ran from October 2014 to October 2017, aimed at providing strategic foresight and warning analysis of the war in Libya, focusing first on the actors before to move on to scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Open Access<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/10\/16\/final-scenario-for-the-future-of-libya-and-their-likelihoods\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods<\/a>,\u00a0Jon Mitchell, 16 October 2017<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/02\/13\/evaluating-likelihoods-libyas-future-scenario-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya\u2019s Future \u2013 Scenario 1\u00a0Towards Peace?<\/a>\u00a0by Jon Mitchell, 1st February 2017<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/06\/01\/scenarios-future-libya-within-next-five-years\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya within the Next Three to Five Years<\/a>&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix and Jon Mitchell , 1 June 2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/10\/13\/potential-futures-libya\/\">Potential Futures for Libya Series \u2013 Features of a War<\/a>\u00a0by Jon Mitchell, 13 October 2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Members-only content<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Evaluating the likelihood of scenarios<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/11\/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-lasting-salafist-victory\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 <strong>A Lasting Salafist Victory?<\/strong><\/a><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/09\/11<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/07\/10\/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-salafist-victory\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 <strong>A Salafist Victory?<\/strong><\/a><strong> &nbsp;<\/strong>by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/07\/10<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/06\/19\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-of-victories-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 <strong>Scenarios of Victories (2)<\/strong><\/a><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/06\/16<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/05\/29\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-32-a-total-victory-1\/\">Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 <strong>Scenarios of Victories (1)<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/05\/29<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\/\">Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2<strong> Increased Spillover and Partition<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/05\/9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/04\/18\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-partition\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 <strong>Partition<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/04\/18<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/03\/27\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-intervention\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 <strong>Intervention<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/03\/27<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/03\/06\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-methodology\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Methodology<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/03\/06<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/02\/13\/evaluating-likelihoods-libyas-future-scenario-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya\u2019s Future \u2013 Scenario 1 <strong>Towards Peace?<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/02\/13 <strong>(Open Access)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenarios<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/01\/23\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-4-2-islamic-state-victory\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 4.2 An Islamic State <\/a>Victory&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2017\/01\/23<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/12\/12\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-4-1-al-qaida-victory\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 4.1 An Al-Qaida Victory<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2016\/12\/12<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/11\/14\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-3-2-nationalist-libya\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.2 A Nationalist Libya<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2016\/11\/14<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-3-1-islamist-libya\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2016\/10\/24<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/10\/03\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-sc-2-4-partition-and-spill-over\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2.4 Partition and Spill Over<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 2016\/10\/03<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/09\/12\/scenarios-2-3-future-libya-partition\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2.3 Libya\u2019s Partition<\/a>,&nbsp; by Jon Mitchell, 2016\/09\/12<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/07\/11\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-2-2-2-libyan-civil-war-spills-algeria-niger-egypt-europe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2.2 (2), The Libyan War Spills Over to Egypt, Algeria, Niger and Europe<\/a>, by Jon Mitchell, 2016\/07\/11<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/06\/20\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-2-2-1-libyan-civil-war-spills-europe-algeria-niger\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2.2 (1), Libyan War Spills Over to Europe, Algeria, and Niger<\/a> \u2013 &nbsp; by Jon Mitchell, &nbsp;2016\/06\/20<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/05\/30\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-2-9-unity-government-continues-fragment-complicating-international-intervention\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2 (9) Fragmentation and International Intervention<\/a>,&nbsp; by Jon Mitchell, 2016\/05\/30<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/05\/09\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-2-8-intervention-supports-unity-government\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2 (8) Intervention for a UN-backed Government<\/a>,&nbsp; by Jon Mitchell, &nbsp;2016\/05\/09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/04\/18\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-2-7-international-coalition-encounters-difficulties-libyan-partners\/\">Libya\u2019s Future Scenarios \u2013 Sc 2 (7) Libyans vs International Coalition: Tensions ahead<\/a>,&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 18 April&nbsp;2016.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/03\/21\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-sc-2-6-international-intervention-with-libyan-partners\/\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2 (6) International Intervention with Libyan Partners<\/a>,&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 21 March&nbsp;2016.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/02\/29\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-sc-2-5-international-intervention-from-beyond-the-region-in-favor-of-the-nationalists\/\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2 (5) International Intervention<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 29&nbsp;Feb&nbsp;2016.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/02\/08\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya\/\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2 (4) Qatar Intervenes on the Islamist Side<\/a>,&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 8&nbsp;Feb&nbsp;2016.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/01\/18\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-2-3-egypt-intervenes-on-the-nationalist-side\/\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2 (3) Egypt Intervenes on the Nationalist Side<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 18 January&nbsp;2016.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/12\/21\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-scenario-2-2-the-joint-arab-force-intervenes\/\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 (2) \u2013 The Joint Arab Force Intervenes<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 21&nbsp;December 2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/12\/07\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-2-1-the-joint-arab-force-takes-a-side\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 2 (1) \u2013 The Joint Arab Force Takes a Side<\/a><span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 7 December&nbsp;2015.<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/11\/09\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-4-libyan-mediated-peace\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (5) \u2013 A Libyan-Mediated Peace?<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 9 November&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/10\/19\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-4-unity-government-formation-negotiation-failures\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (4) \u2013 Failed negotiations<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 19 October&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"outline: 0px;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/09\/28\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-3-successful-peacebuilding-mission\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (3) \u2013 A Successful Peacebuilding Mission?<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 28 September 2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/09\/07\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-towards-peace-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (2) \u2013 a Victorious United Government?<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 7 September&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/06\/29\/scenarios-future-libya-scenario-1-towards-peace-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1: Towards Peace? (1)<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 29 June&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/06\/01\/scenarios-future-libya-within-next-five-years\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Scenarios for the Future of Libya within the Next Three to Five Years<\/a>&nbsp;by Helene Lavoix and Jon Mitchell , 1 June 2015.&nbsp;<strong>(Open Access)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Islamic State in Libya<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/05\/16\/islamic-state-libya\/\">The Islamic State in Libya \u2013 When Libyan Tribes Pledge Allegiance to the Khalifah<\/a>,&nbsp;by H Lavoix, 16 May&nbsp;2016.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2016\/04\/25\/islamic-state-libya\/\">The Islamic State in Libya \u2013 Force, Fighters and Tribes<\/a>,&nbsp;by H Lavoix, 25&nbsp;April 2016.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">State of Play<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/05\/11\/war-libya-futures-tribal-dynamics-civil-war-3\/\">War in Libya and Its Futures \u2013 Tribal Dynamics and Civil War (3)<\/a>&nbsp;(Toubou and Arab Tribes), by Jon Mitchell, 11 May&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/04\/20\/war-libya-futures-tribal-dynamics-civil-war-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">War in Libya and Its Futures \u2013Tribal Dynamics and Civil War (2)<\/a>&nbsp;(Amazigh and Tuareg Tribes),&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 20&nbsp;April&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/04\/13\/war-libya-futures-tribal-dynamics-civil-war\/\">War in Libya and Its Futures \u2013 Tribal Dynamics and Civil War<\/a>,&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 13 April&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/03\/09\/updates-war-libya-futures\/\">Update \u2013 War in Libya and its Futures \u2013 The Islamic State Advance and Impacts<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 9 March&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/02\/16\/war-libya-futures-potential-international-intervention-context\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">War in Libya and its Futures \u2013 Potential International Intervention in Context<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 16 February&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/01\/26\/war-libya-futures-state-play-islamist-misrata-forces-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">War in Libya and its Futures: State of Play \u2013 Islamist Forces (2)<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 26 January&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2015\/01\/05\/war-libya-futures-state-play-islamist-misrata-forces-1\/\">War in Libya and its Futures: State of Play \u2013 Islamist &amp; Misrata forces (1)<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 5 January&nbsp;2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/12\/01\/war-libya-futures-state-play-nationalist-forces-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">War in Libya and its Futures: State of Play \u2013 Nationalist Forces (2)<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 1 December&nbsp;2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/11\/03\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-libya-state-play-part-nationalist-forces\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">War in Libya and its Futures: State of Play \u2013 Nationalist Forces (1)<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 3 November&nbsp;2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Setting the stage<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/10\/13\/potential-futures-libya\/\">Potential Futures for Libya Series \u2013 Features of a War<\/a>&nbsp;by Jon Mitchell, 13 October 2014.&nbsp;<strong>(Open Access)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Featured image:&nbsp;<a class=\"external text\" href=\"http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/people\/32834977@N03\" rel=\"nofollow\">Al Jazeera English<\/a>,&nbsp;<a class=\"external text\" href=\"http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/aljazeeraenglish\/5651112850\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">High-powered technical<\/a>, 2011,&nbsp;[CC BY-SA 2.0 (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u56fe\u7247\uff1aAl Jazeera English, High-powered technical, 2011, CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons \u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u51b2\u7a81\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u5168\u9762\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4e54\u6069-\u7c73\u5207\u5c14\uff08Jon Mitchell\uff09\u5728\u672c\u7cfb\u5217\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u5f00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\uff0c\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u548c\u52a0\u5f3a\u5bf9\u5317\u975e\u548c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u8fdc\u7684\u5730\u533a\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u7684... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/portal-strategic-foresight-warning-analysis-libya\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u5206\u6790\u95e8\u6237\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12864,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,3247],"class_list":["post-8225","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Portal to Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis for Libya &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/portal-strategic-foresight-warning-analysis-libya\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Portal to Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis for Libya &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Image: Al Jazeera English,&nbsp;High-powered technical, 2011,&nbsp;CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons The conflict in Libya was a full-blown war. As underlined by Jon Mitchell, in his article opening the series, &#8220;a continuing and strengthening Libyan civil war poses a significant challenge in the North African and Middle Eastern regions, and even beyond. 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